My Thoughts on the 2024 Presidential Election

I watched a lot of TV over the last few days, and I've come up with this conclusion: There is too much coverage of the Dallas Cowboys. Seriously, they are a mediocre to above-average team and have been that way for nearly 30 years. While I stand by my opinion of the Cowboys and the media obsession with this team, that's obviously not the point of this post. 

I created Sean's Ramblings as a diary of sorts. The purpose of some posts is to share something entertaining or interesting with people who read this, but there are other posts that are more for me. I like being able to look back at posts I wrote about major moments of my life over the last 20 years. Big things like the birth of my kids and the passing of my parents. I also see this blog as a bit of a time capsule for me. Because of that, I want to write my thoughts on the 2024 presidential election in real time. 

Let's start with this. I'm disappointed with the results. I wanted Kamala Harris to be the 47th president of the United States and not just because I predicted in January 2020 that she would be president on January 1, 2030. (My prediction of the Kansas City Chiefs winning the most Super Bowls in the 2020s is looking good right now.) Obviously, this is 20-20 hindsight, and I'm not trying to play the blame game (though it may sound like it). Joe Biden never should have run for reelection. Back when he was running for president in 2020, he talked about being a 1-term, transitional president. At some point during his term, probably when he saw that Trump was going to be the Republican nominee, he changed his mind. Many believe that Biden thought he was the best (or only) person who could defeat Trump since he did it before. However, it was clear during his debate with Trump over the summer that Biden could no longer serve as president and campaign for re-election at the same time and then do the job for another 4 years. He should have bowed out a year ago, allowing for a Democratic primary. Again, I'm really not trying to blame Biden. I think he is a good person and should be remembered as someone who dedicated his life to serving Delaware and America.

Unfortunately, Biden's late decision to bow out of the race left Kamala Harris little time to organize. Again, this is hindsight, but even after her time in the Senate and as Vice President, she's not that well known to many Americans. I'm writing this acknowledging that I follow politics rather closely and understand that many people don't. At least by polling data, Biden isn't considered popular with the majority of Americans, and Harris struggled to show where she differed from him. For many people, illegal immigration was one of the most important issues in the election. Even though a vice president has little to do with the policies and actions of the president, by being part of the Biden administration, she became the candidate responsible for any real or perceived border crisis. Sure, border crossings are down and a bipartisan deal to provide increased border security was killed by Trump telling House and Senate Republicans not to support the legislation, but that wasn't the message much of the electorate heard. Same with the economy. Inflation in America was and is lower than most of the world and the unemployment rate is down, but people see higher grocery bills and higher interest rates on homes and vehicles and blame the current administration. 

So even though Trump started campaigning for president nearly a decade ago and doesn't seem to have much interest or ability to formulate specific policies (see the concept of a plan for a new health care system) other than making bold statements (see ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours), Trump appears to have won more votes based on the issues. Fine. I mean, not fine, but fine. I'll get more to the issues momentarily.

Character needs to count for something. Even Trump's biggest supporters admit that he needs to get off social media and tone down his rhetoric. That's being generous. He's a bully who constantly insults people. He's a terrible example for kids. He's a sore loser who never admits defeat or that he is wrong.

He was found guilty of 34 felonies for falsifying business records. A jury found him liable for sexual abuse. 27 women have accused Trump of sexual assault. I'm sure that there are some MAGA members who think that everything is a big conspiracy against Trump. Do they truly believe that ALL of this is made up? That's like believing that Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson just likes getting massages from different massage therapists each time. 

It really says something that VP Mike Pence, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, and many other members of his administration refused to endorse or support Trump.

Okay, back to issues. Deport criminals? Assuming there is some type of proof of crimes and/or due process, no one is going to argue with this. Get em outta here.

Mass deportation for all undocumented migrants including those who have been in the US for years, pay taxes, and contribute to society? Not so fast my friend. Trump also wants to pardon the January 6th rioters. But I thought it was antifa or government operatives who rioted. So why exactly is the "tough-on crime" Trump going to pardon those convicted? Oh, it was actually Trump supporters that rioted, and he wants to show his support for them.

This post is too long already. I haven't even touched on abortion, LGBT rights, the fact that Trump wants the licenses of CBS and ABC revoked, and that he will go after political opponents. I haven't included the role of Elon Musk (whose companies have billions of dollars in federal contracts; hello conflict of interest!) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (with years of experience as an environmental lawyer but will be in charge of health and have nothing to do with the EPA) in the administration. There's just so much. Maybe Trump will try to be a president for all Americans like he said in his speech after winning the election. Based on his history, I'm not counting on it, but I'm trying to be positive. I'm hopeful that Trump will be good for Israel in getting the hostages home and helping to end the conflicts between Israel and the Iranian proxies.   

I guess I'll end with this. My parents were both government employees. Yes, they were in stable jobs with good benefits, but they both wanted to help people. We grew up directly across the street from a parkway exit. Over the years, friends and neighbors wanted us to put campaign signs in our front yard due to it being a high visibility location, but my parents refused to do so because they couldn't as federal employees. They took this very seriously. This is a big part of why Project 2025 scares me. Mass firings of good civil servants doing their jobs just because they don't share the same political affiliation of the administration is not the way to make America great again. It's the exact opposite.

Photo of Harris by Alex Brandon (AP). Photo of Trump from Getty Images.

Sean Contacts Presidential Candidates

Virginia's Presidential primary takes place on Tuesday, March 5th. Virginia has open primaries, meaning that you show up to your polling place and simply ask for a Democratic or Republican ballot. While this generally doesn't impact the overall results, it does make things interesting. For example, in 2008, I remember some Republicans saying they would vote for Barack Obama in the primary believing he would be easier to defeat in the general election than Hillary Clinton. (I'm not sure if this is true or not since John McCain only defeated Mike Huckabee by about 45,000 votes in the 2008 Republican primary and Obama defeated Clinton by almost 300,000 votes in the Democratic primary).

So that brings us to 2024. Here are your ballots for Tuesday's primary: 

I contacted the campaigns of everyone on both the Republican and Democratic primary ballots and asked one simple question: Why should Virginians vote for you? (Or if the candidate has withdrawn, who do you support and why?)

Here are the responses:

Nothing. No one replied. Actually, I take that back. I received a "Failure Notice" that the email account I tried to reach does not exist message from Vivek Ramaswamy. I appreciate the fact that his campaign completely ended and decided to stop paying for things like email addresses.

While Sean's Ramblings isn't CNN, The Washington Post, Fox News, or any of the local news stations in the Washington, Richmond, or Virginia Beach markets, this seems like a missed opportunity for candidates to communicate directly with voters on a smaller scale. 

So where does this leave Virginia voters? My guess is that most Republicans will vote for Trump, most Democrats will vote for Biden, and others will vote for a candidate of the opposite party as a "protest" vote. And maybe candidates will want their voices heard on Sean's Ramblings in future elections! 

State of the Union Suggestions

Joe Biden will deliver the State of the Union tonight at the Capitol Building. Like most of these speeches over the last decade and beyond, I expect there to be multiple standing ovations by members of presidents' party and silence from the opposing party. While Biden often talks about bringing people together, I think he can do this tonight by having both Democrats and Republicans stand, or at least applaud, at portions of his address. Here are my suggestions on things he can say to unify both political parties:

* Dolly Parton is a national treasure and a saint.

* Major League Baseball needs to reach an agreement immediately so that the season starts on time.

* Abolish daylight savings time.

* I believe that children are our future. Teach them well and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.

* Sean’s Ramblings is a great blog. (Actually, this might unify both parties in that this comment will result in absolute silence.)

* "President Reagan once said, Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Well, Frito-Lay, bring back Bar-B-Q Fritos!"

* Sidney Crosby is the best overall hockey player over the last 20 years.

* Zaxby's is underrated.

This should just about cover everything. If there's anything that's missing, please share them in the comments. I'll be sure to pass them on to President Biden and his speechwriters!

Joe Biden's Inauguration

I started writing Sean's Ramblings only weeks before George W. Bush's second inauguration, so Wednesday's inauguration of President Joe Biden is my fifth opportunity to write about such an event. Considering that I've lived in Northern Virginia during this entire time, you would think that I would have a good story to share about attending an inaugural ball or standing on the national mall during a ceremony. Nope. In January 2005, just after I started this blog, instead of writing about Bush's inauguration, I shared that our heat wasn't working. In 2009, I listened to Obama's inauguration on the radio while driving from Buffalo to New York City at the conclusion of that year's hockey road trip. I mentioned this only briefly, but I then took a bus from New York to DC. Once I arrived in DC, I got the Metro at Union Station and saw people dressed in tuxedos and gowns going to or from a ball on the platform and the trains. Meanwhile, I was carrying a suitcase and looking completely disheveled. Someone who appeared to be homeless asked me if I had an extra pair of socks, and even though I said they were dirty, he graciously accepted a pair. So giving away a pair of socks at a Metro station is the closest I have to an inauguration story.

Wednesday's inauguration was nice. I mean, I'm sure that there are plenty of other words that you can use but nice just seems right. Joe Biden talked about unity and being the president for all Americans. He was empathetic in having a moment of silence for those who passed away during the pandemic. Overall, Biden came across as a good guy who wants to serve the American people which I think he really is and wants to do. I'll write more about Biden momentarily.

Kamala Harris formerly becoming the first female Vice President was truly a historic moment. Amanda Gorman gave an incredible address that really stole the show, which is amazing to think about considering that Lady Gaga (and her pendant), Jennifer Lopez, and Garth Brooks (and his belt buckle) all performed. And I could spend hours looking at Bernie Sanders memes. 

Look, I don't know how the Biden presidency is going to go. It's refreshing to know that Biden isn't going to insult people on Twitter. That he's going to be empathetic during tragedies. That he's not going to argue about crowd sizes or constantly bring up electoral college results. He's definitely not going to encourage his supporters to march to the Capitol. This is an incredibly low bar, but this is where we are in January 2021. Based on the current state of the country, I expect Biden to have early success. Over 400,000 Americans have now passed away due to COVID-19 and the job market is awful. He has nowhere else to go but up. I fully expect him to do everything in his power to distribute vaccines and try to end the coronavirus. Meanwhile, the stock market and retirement accounts are doing great, which shows the disconnect between those with wealth and those who don't. I really think Biden is going to try to help those unemployed and struggling.

Now passing legislation is going to be much tougher, especially with a 50-50 split in the Senate. Biden is not going to get a honeymoon period. For example, Senator Ted Cruz tweeted this on Wednesday:

By rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, President Biden indicates he's more interested in the views of the citizens of Paris than in the jobs of the citizens of Pittsburgh. This agreement will do little to affect the climate and will harm the livelihoods of Americans.

I'll disregard the fact that just two weeks ago, Cruz tried to block the certification of Pennsylvania's election results (including by voters in Pittsburgh). It just shows that Biden is going to get opposition on pretty much anything he does. Oh, I will write that it was fun to see Pittsburgh Twitter unified in their disdain for Cruz. If you ever follow Twitter during a Steelers game, you know that there is never any unity or agreement among Pittsburgh people.

Anyway, my point to this whole post is that the inauguration was nice, and I'm hopeful that Biden has a successful presidency. I wish him and Kamala Harris good health and good luck. 

Biden photo by Brendan Smialowski AFP. Harris photo by Getty Images.

Election Wrap-Up

First, on this Veterans Day, thank you to all of the veterans who served our country and active military members who continue to serve today. 

Remember the election prediction blog post from last week? Well, I thought it would be fun to see how everyone did. (Please note that I'll address the allegations of election fraud or that the results were rigged later in this post.) 

1. Who will win the Presidential election and by how much based on Electoral College numbers?

5 of 7 of us picked Biden. Assuming that Georgia goes to Biden, he'll get 306 electoral votes. Deb said over 300 votes, and I predicted 307, so we each get a bonus point.

2. By day and time, when will the American public first learn who won the Presidential election?

Even though Professor Sean Foreman gave several scenarios, one of them was Saturday, November 7th at noon. Since most major networks called it at 11:30, Dr. Sean gets a point.

3. Who wins the South Carolina Senate race?

Jon, Barry, and Sean all correctly chose Lindsey Graham

4. Who wins the Kentucky Senate race?

Everyone picked McConnell.

5. Will the Democrats flip the Senate?

All seven of us said yes. Even though it's still possible that the Democrats win the two Georgia seats in January, for now, we are all incorrect.

6. Will CA approve Prop 18 to allow 17 year-olds who will be 18 at the time of the next general election to vote in primaries and special elections?

Jon and Rich were right in predicting no.

7. Will CO approve Proposition 114 to reintroduce gray wolves on public land?

In a super close 50%-49% vote, this measure passed. I assume this means we'll see gray wolves in center field at Rockies games in a few years. Or maybe former baseball pitcher Randy Wolf will come out of retirement. Josh, Jon, Barry, and Rich got this right.

8. Will South Dakota approve Constitutional Amendment B to legalize sports betting in Deadwood?

Jon said no and Sean didn't really answer this, but the rest of us were correct that sports gambling is coming to Deadwood. Fun fact. In the summer of 1999, my dad and I drove from San Diego to Pittsburgh, and we stopped in Deadwood. I really liked it there. We did a walking tour which included visiting the cemetery where Wild Bill Hickok and Calamity Jane are buried, and there was a bar/restaurant/casino owned by Kevin Costner which featured memorabilia from his time filming Dancing With Wolves. Soon, I can visit again and put money on the Steelers-Cowboys game.

9. Will the Steelers defeat the Cowboys by more than 10 points?

And I was permitted to put money on the Cowboys, I would have won since they were 13.5-point underdogs. The Steelers won in an uninspiring 24-19 game. I was the only one to get this right. 

Barry, Rich, and I all finished with 5 correct. Jon, Josh, and Deb got 4 right. Dr. Sean only got 3 right, but he didn't really answer everything. 

Overall, this was a lot of fun. I may have to do this again in 2022 or 2024!

Let's get to the presidential election. So you're telling me that the Democrats successfully rigged the election in favor of Joe Biden? They did this in such a brilliant way that the party lost seats in the House and failed to take the Senate (pending the Georgia run-offs). If they rigged the election, why did Lindsey Graham, Steve Daines, and Thom Tillis keep their seats against strong opponents in South Carolina, Montana, and North Carolina respectively? In addition, wouldn't the Democrats have rigged the election so that Mitch McConnell lost in Kentucky? 

So all of a sudden, the party that couldn't get a Senate vote for Merrick Garland after President Obama nominated him for a Supreme Court seat and couldn't stop Amy Coney Barrett from becoming a Supreme Court justice are amazing strategists? Weren't some Republicans calling Joe Biden senile and saying that he's declining mentally? Last week, there were heated arguments between centrists and more liberal Democrats in the House. Was this just part of Nancy Pelosi's plan to distract the country from thinking about voter fraud?  Or maybe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is behind this, but I thought she was just a bartender.

I guess there is some incredible 4D chess happening here by the Democratic party leadership

Biden-Harris Win

On Saturday, November 7th around 11:30AM Eastern time, multiple media outlets declared that Joe Biden won Pennsylvania giving him the electoral college numbers to become president-elect. I'm happy about this. I'll get to policy and government momentarily, but Biden really seems like someone who got into politics because he wanted to make a difference and to help people. By all accounts, Joe Biden is a good person. There's the story of Joe Biden attending a shiva minyan to remember a constituent who donated $18 to his Senate campaign each election. You've probably heard about the affection Amtrak staff had of Biden since he regularly took the train from Delaware to DC. Even over the last few weeks, you've seen plenty of Republican leaders like former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, former Ohio Governor John Kasich, and Retired Admiral William McRaven all endorse Biden. It seemed like their messages were similar. Like George W. Bush stated on Sunday, "Though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden to be a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country."

And that's what this really comes down to, right? Again, forget about policy for a minute. Here's someone who wants to unify this country. He's not going to go on angry rants on Twitter. He's not going to come up with insults for any political opponent and use them constantly. He's going to be an actual adult and try to be a leader that we expect from the presidency.

Now Biden, Kamala Harris (who probably deserves her own blog post), and the new executive team do not have an easy task ahead of them. We're still in a pandemic with no signs of the virus slowing down, particularly as we enter winter and cold and flu season. While the Democrats have control of the House, the Senate may still be under Republican control depending on the two Georgia races. Even if Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win the runoff races, it seems like Mitch McConnell will have plenty to say on what legislation passes and who gets to fill judicial vacancies. After four years of massive spending and increased national debt under the Trump presidency via the tax cut, border wall, space force, and more, I have a feeling that Republicans will rediscover their concerns about fiscal responsibility. 

In the meantime though, let the celebration begin! 

Forbes and Murray pic.twitter.com/ZJEdFUUBGe

— Ben Schmitt (@bencschmitt) November 7, 2020

Oh, can we also just hope that Trump spends the next two months on the golf course and popping up every once in a while to issue pardons to his supporters and nothing else?

Photo by Getty Images.

2020 Election Predictions

So you may have heard that there are national elections on Tuesday. It’s the biggest Presidential election in our lifetime. Well, at least until 2024. While there are numerous polls available for just about every local, state, and national race, I decided to ask an esteemed group of panelists for their thoughts and predictions on a variety of topics. The questions and answers are below, but before that, let me introduce you to the panelists.
 
Me - I’m the guy writing this blog. You’ll see why I’m referring to myself as me in the post momentarily.

Josh - The author of the terrific blog Josh’s World. I’ll even call him a frequent collaborator since he always participates in any of my blog ideas.

Deb - My friend and trivia teammate.

Jon - A fellow Pittsburgher who I find that I have regular disagreements with on Twitter. We do agree on plenty of things though.

Barry - My friend and former colleague.

Rich - Besides being a must follow on Twitter, Rich also hosts the podcast Why,Bloody Valentine? where he tries to share his love of horror with his “decidedly not a horror fan” wife.

Dr. Sean Foreman - Professor, Political Science and Chair, Department of History of Political Science in the College of Arts & Sciences at Barry University in Miami. He has also co-edited a book series titled “The Roads to Congress” every two years since 2010. The Roads to Congress 2018 is available here.

1. Who will win the Presidential election and by how much based on Electoral College numbers (or by number of votes if you prefer)?

Me: Biden wins 307 to 231. I think he wins Pennsylvania in a very close race as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.

Josh: Joe Biden 285 to 252. I think he ends up with about five million more votes.

Deb: Biden will win with over 300 electoral college votes (please dear God if there's any justice in the universe).

Jon: I have Trump winning by a very small margin, 20 electoral votes, but once again losing the popular vote by quite a bit.

Barry: Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States of America, winning the Electoral College vote 357-181.  The final margin will include some very close outcomes at the state level.  The red side will eke out victories in Texas and Ohio, but will drop the 2016 Trump states of North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  The real surprise is that the Democrats will win Georgia by greater margins than Florida and North Carolina.  Biden will also take the 2^nd District of Nebraska’s one electoral vote.

Rich: This is insanely difficult to pick. The map is starting to turn more purple than just red and blue. I think Biden might pull off a win in Georgia, but I think the mythical Texas victory is still one or two cycles away. I am also concerned states will invalidate election results, specifically in Pennsylvania and attempt to send their own electors. In the end I have Biden winning 297 to 241. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it was more.

Sean: If the polls are to be believed:

If the polls are incorrect and there is a greater, silent Trump vote:

I love that the political science professor included maps! 

2. By day and time, when will the American public first learn who won the Presidential election? (For example, Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:30PM Eastern time.)

Me: Wednesday, November 4^th at 7:58PM. Just in time to interrupt The Masked Singer.

Josh: November 4^th at 6 p.m.

Deb: Wednesday, November 4th at 2:30AM EST.

Jon: Man, good question. Pennsylvania is going to have a lot of votes to count after Tuesday, and my prediction comes down to PA’s 20 votes - so I will say we won’t know for sure until Friday at 6pm. 

Barry: Because it is likely that the Trump campaign will contest several states in court, nothing will be official for a while.  However, I believe that the news outlets will call it for the Biden campaign on Friday, November 6^th at 10:15 a.m.  The Trump campaign, however, will not concede for some time after that.

Rich: I’m not even sure how to answer this. I think Trump will claim victory on election night and Biden will neither claim victory or concede. Trump is already laying the groundwork to have legitimate votes thrown out and that likely means we are headed to courts. News outlets will declare victory for candidates within two or three days, but that hardly matters. My best guess is we know around 2 PM on December 14^th, when electors vote in their states.

Sean: Best case, Wednesday, Nov. 4 at 3:00 am; more likely a day or two later and maybe Saturday, Nov 7 at 12:00 pm, if we have to wait to count all of Pennsylvania’s mail in ballots which can be received by Friday at 5 pm, as you know, and learn PA’s result before we have a definite winner.  Biden will likely win the popular vote, either way.

3. Who wins the South Carolina Senate race: Lindsey Graham or Jamie Harrison?

Me: Harrison in a very close race.

Josh: Jamie Harrison

Deb: Jamie Harrison because Graham must rot in obscurity hell.

Jon: Graham. 

Barry: Lindsay Graham will survive the well-fought battle by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin. 

Rich: Jamie Harrison

Sean: Graham.  Harrison made a great run of it but I think the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett saved Lindsey Graham.  Harrison will have raised the most money ever for a Senate campaign only to lose like Beto O’Rouke of Texas whose record he broke.  South Carolina is still South Carolina despite the MSNBC spin.

4. Who wins the Kentucky Senate race: Mitch McConnell or Amy McGrath?

Me: McConnell.

Josh: Mitch McConnell

Deb: Unfortunately for humanity, Mitch.  Who also deserves to rot in obscurity hell.

Jon: McConnell.

Barry: Mitch McConnell will be re-elected by a 54% to 46% margin.

Rich: Mitch McConnell and it won’t be particularly close.

Sean: McConnell

5. Will the Democrats flip the Senate?

Me: Yes. I’m not giving a prediction on the number of seats, but at a minimum, it will be 50-50 with the Democrats getting the tie-breaker with Kamala Harris as Vice President.

Josh: Yes

Deb: Yes.

Jon: Yes.

Barry: Yes, but it will take until January’s anticipated run-off(s) in Georgia to get a final margin.  It should end -up 54-46, but I have a bad feeling about Steve Bullock holding off the incumbent Republican Steve Daines.  The Greenfield/Ernst race in Iowa has been polling at even, give or take, but I think Ernst’s debate blunder will result in a 2 point loss

Rich: Yes. Slightly.

Sean: Yes. They will do this by flipping seats in Colorado, Iowa (I probably should put Iowa as blue in that case), Kansas (I think they will split and vote for Trump and the Dem for Senate), Arizona (same as Kansas, though Biden could win AZ), and Ossoff in Georgia.  They will lose Doug Jones in Alabama. I keep going back and forth, but think the incumbents will win in Maine and North Carolina.   All of this is me hedging my picks based on the 2016 sting.

6. Will California approve Prop 18 to allow 17-year-olds who will be 18 at the time of the next general election to vote in primaries and special elections?

Me: I’ll say yes since the California Democratic party seems to be in favor of this. However, this seems like even if voters approve this, it’s going to be in court for years and may end up before the Supreme Court.

Josh: Yes, but I think it will be a very close vote

Deb: Yes

Jon: No.

Barry: Yes.

Rich: No. Older voters seem to think 17 year olds are significantly less informed than they are, despite no evidence existing this is the case. When it comes to kids people tend to want them to sit down and shut up.

Sean: Yes. This could get interesting if it evolves to other states.

7. Will Colorado approve Proposition 114 to reintroduces gray wolves on public lands?

Me: No since the Colorado Wildlife Commission voted against this in 2016 (though there seems to be some controversy about who is on this commission). Now, if Colorado tries to introduce Direwolves from Game of Thrones, I think that would pass.

Josh: Yes, I do not think it will be that close. 

Deb: No.

Jon: Yes? I have never even heard of this.

Barry: If this were a non-Presidential year and voting levels were going to be lower, I would say no.  However, this issue has turned into a rural vs. urban battle for the most part.  So this is a yes, Proposition 114 will pass.

Rich: Yes. People love wolves! Especially people that don’t have to deal with them. In an election that will have a high liberal/urban turnout I think this one will pass.

Sean: This one was completely off of my radar.  I will have to look into it and read what others have to say.

(My note: I love that this question was a complete curveball.)

8. Will South Dakota approve Constitutional Amendment B to legalize sports betting in Deadwood and require that net local revenue from such activity be dedicated to the Historic Restoration and Preservation of Deadwood?

Me: Yes. Sports betting is about to become national. Plus, this question was just an excuse to include a picture from the TV show Deadwood.

Josh: Yes. This is an odd one that the support and opposition are both Republicans. Granted, probably not too many Democrats in South Dakota (or people for that matter). I think it passes because these types of votes seem to generally go in that direction.

Deb: Yes

Jon: No.

Barry: Sure.  Everybody’s doing it, so why not South Dakota?  Sports betting is going to be everywhere soon enough.

Rich: Yes. Legalized gambling is moving across the country and voters see it as a decent way to raise money.

Sean: Same as #7. I’m generally interested in initiatives and gaming policy, but have not been following these issues recently. So many state and local elections in Florida and especially the Miami-Dade and Broward Counties areas have keep me occupied. I’ve been commenting in media on, and moderating forums and panels, and informally advising on some of the local campaigns.

9. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Dallas Cowboys by more than 10 points on Sunday, 11/8?

Me: Dallas is bad, but I feel like it will be a bit of a letdown game for the Steelers after defeating the Titans and Ravens. Steelers win by 7-9 points, and some Steelers fans will go insane and demand that Tomlin or a coordinator gets fired even though the team will be 8-0.

Josh: Absolutely, especially if Ben DiNucci is the QB

Deb: SPORTSBALL

Jon: Absolutely.

Barry: Hell yeah.  I think it’s likely that the margin is even greater…Let’s go with a 31-13 final score.

Rich: Yes, the Cowboys are very, very bad and as of now they’re getting outscored by quite a bit.

Sean: Yes. 31-17 Steelers.

Barry added this bonus prediction: Trump News will be announced by the President via a tweet at the same time he concedes, offering that any cable or streaming platform that doesn’t immediately add the new network is clearly supporting the fake news that illegally brought Trump into his new career.  The network will seek to further bring into the mainstream the far right racist, fascist, and anti-establishment agenda, and will push Ivanka Trump for president in 2024.

Now, I guess we'll see who is correct in their predictions. I think the main winner on Tuesday night and beyond will be television networks thanks to high ratings and any company that makes alcoholic products!

Thanks to everyone who participated in this post. Please feel free to share your own predictions in the comments section below. I also want to share this live webinar today (Monday, November 2nd) at noon Eastern time that features Dr. Sean Foreman. Please check it out!

McConnell photo by Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS

Two Years Later

Today marks two years since the horrific shooting at Pittsburgh's Tree of Life synagogue. I shared my thoughts and feelings immediately after the tragedy and tried to put things in perspective one year ago. Seeing videos and reading articles about this day have stirred up all types of emotions. It certainly doesn't help that we're a week away from the presidential election. So yes this post is going to be political.

Last month, I wrote a post about Donald Trump and the Jewish vote. My conclusion was that Jewish voters who see Israel as the top reason to vote for Trump should reconsider. Even last week, when Trump should have celebrated a peace deal between Israel and Sudan, he tried to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to insult Biden. 

Trump has Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on speaker phone to discuss a deal normalizing relations between Israel and Sudan. He asks: "Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal?"

Netanyahu: "We appreciate the help for peace from anyone in America" pic.twitter.com/OtCAL37m8e

— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 23, 2020

Therefore, I commend Washington Jewish Week, not exactly a liberal publication, for endorsing Joe Biden. I'm getting way, way off topic here.

As a Jew in America, I feel less safe than I did 4 years ago. Yes, this is a rather simplistic statement that has a lot to do with the fact that I attended Tree of Life for the first 16 years of my life. Still, you can't ignore the significant increase in anti-Semitic activities and violence over the last 4 years including in Poway, Jersey City, and Charlottesville. Now, is Donald Trump responsible for the violence? Of course not. Sadly, this is a trend that's occurring in other parts of the world too. However, Trump has certainly empowered, or at a minimum emboldened, white supremacists in the United States. Please check out the 12:55 mark of this PBS' Frontline video. That's Donald Trump after Charlottesville. That's not what you expect to hear from a leader trying to unite the country.  

Trump's "stand back and stand by" line was only a few weeks ago too, so it's not like he's grown into the position or changed his views on anything. Look, I know that voting Trump out of office isn't going to stop anti-Semitism. And this brings me back to Tree of Life. How do we make sure that this doesn't happen again? I don't have the answer. As I mentioned last year, religious institutions of all faiths now have increased security and police at every function. I guess that makes most people feel safer, but that's not how people should live. 

Education and trying to understand each other couldn't hurt. Of course, that Frontline video shows plenty of people in Charlottesville who had no interest in conversation or learning. How about not saying that Biden is a "die-hard globalist" like a particular person who currently resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is currently doing on the campaign trial? There is a history of anti-Semitism with the words globalist and globalism. That only helps to spread hate.

So I'm just going to try to spend a few quiet minutes today to remember the people who lost their lives two years ago and hope that our country is in a better place soon. We are and need to be stronger than hate!

As a slight tangent, Integrity First For America is leading a lawsuit against the neo-Nazis responsible for the Charlottesville violence. I'm just sharing this here since I think it's an interesting case.

Donald Trump And The Jewish Vote

I've been thinking about this for a long time. I know that there are plenty of Jews who support and will vote for Donald Trump in November. Much of the reasoning behind this is due to his relationship and accomplishments surrounding Israel. Let's start with Trump moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. On the surface, this seems like an easy call. How can an embassy not be in the country capital? Congress even authorized this move back in 1995. (Biden voted in favor of this.) For a variety of reasons, though, the move never happened until Trump took office. While maybe pro-Trump Jewish voters are okay with the end result here, Trump said that he moved the embassy “for the evangelicals.”

“And we moved the capital of Israel to Jerusalem. That’s for the Evangelicals. You know, it’s amazing with that: the Evangelicals are more excited by that than Jewish people.” pic.twitter.com/nO8aIzuZJa

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) August 17, 2020

 

I'm definitely not going to speak for evangelicals here. I'll let Walker Robins, a former Schusterman Center for Israel Studies at Brandeis University post-doctoral fellow (and current lecturer at Merrimack College) explain.

Some evangelicals "stress biblical prophecy, holding that Jewish possession of Jerusalem, especially the Temple Mount in East Jerusalem, is essential to a number of prophesied events that will accompany the Second Coming of Christ." Many evangelicals see the embassy move as getting closer to the Rapture / End Times / Armageddon where good Christians go to heaven and the rest of us (including Jews) are left behind or worse. Therefore, it's fair to suspect the way the embassy move was done (it upset lots of people) and the reason for the move. 
 
By the way, Trump said this during his acceptance speech at the Republican Convention last month.

“Rather than spending $1 billion on a new building as planned, we took an already owned existing building in a better location … and opened it at a cost of less than $500,000.”

In reality, from this fact check from the link above, the cost for converting the building is over $23 million, and the costs for the permanent embassy could surpass $1 billion.

Even back in 2018 when Trump claimed that the site would only cost between $200,000 and $300,000, the State Department awarded a $21 million contract for embassy building upgrades.

I’m not going to write that Trump lied about the costs, but, um, I’m not sure the right way to finish this sentence if I don't write that. I should also mention that if people are worried about the status of the embassy if Trump loses, Biden said he’ll keep the embassy in Jerusalem.

I realize that I barely started this post, and I’m including lots of links and quotes. That’s not like me! You generally read stories about my kids or about how many burritos I ate in a year. I’ll try to have less of this.

Israel recently signed peace agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain thanks in part to assistance by the United States. Trump is taking credit for this, and he should. This is his biggest international accomplishment of his presidency. However, let’s not pretend that Trump was at Camp David with international leaders for weeks trying to broker a peace deal like Jimmy Carter. UAE and Israel have been building towards an agreement for years based on growing business connections and a mutual enemy in Iran. And honestly, the Saudi Arabia and Iran relationship is probably the key here. Hot take: They don’t like each other very much. UAE and Bahrain don’t do these deals without the backing of Saudi Arabia. And this is where things get tricky. Or maybe not tricky at all. 

The CIA concluded that Mohammed bin Salman (“MBS”), the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, ordered the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Nevertheless, not long after the murder, Trump bypassed Congress to sell about $8 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia and UAE. He also vetoed resolutions blocking the sale as well as a bipartisan bill to end US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen’s civil war. In addition, it was recently revealed that Trump bragged to Bob Woodward that he “was able to get Congress to leave MBS alone.” Clearly, Trump values his relationship with the Saudi monarchy (and probably more specifically their money), and they obviously love Trump. I mean, there were no repercussions at all for murdering a journalist. In fact, they were rewarded and protected!

So it clearly looks like Israel decided that they’re on the Saudi side of the Saudi Arabia-Iran whatever you want to call it. And this is where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes in. Bibi (and others including many in the American Jewish community) didn’t like the international deal between the US and other countries with Iran during the Obama administration. Obama and Bibi never seemed to get along, and the signing of this nuclear agreement strained the relationship (at best) between the two. Because of this, there are people who think that Obama and Biden (since he was VP under Obama) are against or hate Israel. However, it was under Obama and Biden in 2016 that the US signed a record $38 billion deal for military aid to Israel. Now, it’s fair to question this deal and incredible amount of money involved here, but it happened even with the sour relationship between Obama and Netanyahu. The point is America is committed to Israel no matter who is in the Oval Office. And it seems to me that Biden has a solid track record on Israel and to a lesser extent so does Kamala Harris.

Okay, sorry for a few more links. Joe Biden’s website discusses his record and plan pertaining to Israel and Harris shared her commitment to Israel. There are also some “fun” facts about Harris and her relationship with the Jewish community.

By the way, Israel definitely didn’t want Iran to have nuclear capabilities. Well, guess who may have enough uranium ore to produce nuclear fuel? That’s right, Saudi Arabia!

Moving the American embassy to Jerusalem is fine, and it’s great the Israel has peace agreements with UAE and Bahrain. However, anyone suggesting that Trump is the best president Israel has ever had certainly doesn’t know the history between the two countries. While I stand by my point that the US-Israel relationship will be strong with whoever is in the Oval Office, Israel needs to worry about their own leadership given that there have been approximately 87 elections for Prime Minister over the last few years! (That’s only a slight exaggeration.) I think most people want Israel to have peace agreements with as many countries (and including the Palestinians) as possible. Until that happens, though, I think it's fair to be skeptical (and there are probably other words you could use here) of the Saudi Arabian government.

Now that I wrote about America’s relationship with Israel, I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah.

Actually, I wanna really, really, really discuss this this September 2, 2020 opinion article titled "Many Orthodox Jews support President Trump. I'm one of them - here's why" by Mishpacha Magazine editor Binyamin Rose published in Washington Jewish Week. Here are some quotes from the article:

We feel an affinity to the president’s cadre of Orthodox Jewish advisers, including Jared Kushner. Jared’s father, Charlie, was my high school classmate at the Jewish Educational Center in Elizabeth, NJ. The Kushners wore their commitment to Jewish causes and Israel on their sleeves.

It’s nice that Rose has a personal connection to the Kushners. It’s funny that he didn’t mention that Kushner pleaded guilty to 16 counts of tax evasion, one count of retaliating against a federal witness and one count of lying to the Federal Election Commission. And that one count of retaliating against a federal witness is quite a story. Kushner hired a prostitute to seduce his brother-in-law, videotaped it, and then sent the videotape to his sister to attempt to intimidate her from testifying before a grand jury. So Kushner served time in federal prison, but since he’s committed to Jewish causes and Israel, everything is okay? As for Jared Kusher, the only reason that he has such a prominent role in the Trump administration is because he married Ivanka Trump. I would say that he’s a real life Tom Wambsgans, but as pointed out in this amazing Last Week Tonight segment, he has plenty of responsibilities. (This video is not safe for work.)

If Kushner wasn't married to Ivanka and showed up at the White House with his resume and asked to be responsible for Middle East peace negotiations, on the coronavirus task force, as well as the other items he does, he would be laughed away. Back to the article.

Recent events have only solidified Trump’s standing despite the coronavirus pandemic, which most Orthodox Jews view as primarily a health issue and not one that politicians can solve. Biden can critique Trump from the basement of his Wilmington, Del., home all he wants, but he can’t prove retroactively that he would have done better.

I’ll give Rose the benefit of the doubt that this was published in early September before the revelation that Trump told Bob Woodward that he was downplaying the severity of the virus to avoid panic. We all know that Trump tries to avoid panic at all costs. Remember all of the gang members and terrorists that were part of the Central American migrants ready to invade our southern border? He definitely tried to downplay that, right? Rose is correct that we can’t prove that Biden would have done better during the pandemic. But how could he have done worse? Biden never said that the virus would simply go away. Biden also never said that the virus "affects virtually nobody" under 18. Again, I'm not going to write that Trump lied, but um...

Aside from catching COVID-19, the two outbreaks Orthodox Jews fear most are a breakdown of law and order, and rising anti-Semitism. To an extent, the two dovetail.

American Orthodox Jewish voters are concentrated in and around major cities, where Jewish institutions have spent millions of dollars since 9/11 on security upgrades. We have watched in dread as this summer’s legitimate demonstrations against police brutality against Black Americans quickly gave way to rioting and looting, with big-city mayors looking the other way.

While the vast majority of the protests haven’t resulted in rioting and looting, let’s go with Rose’s point. So the way to improve law and order and rising anti-Semitism that has happened during the Trump presidency is to, re-elect Trump?

Yes, political dialogue has descended to gutter level. Trump bears his share of the blame for that. Judaism has laws for kosher speech, just as it has for kosher food. Jewish law forbids the use of derogatory nicknames. We’d like to see the president eliminate the name-calling from his political lexicon.

 
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Can I stop laughing now? Trump has been president for nearly four years. What makes you think he’s going to stop name-calling? He was just on Fox and Friends on Monday suggesting that Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Congressman Adam Schiff (who he called "Shifty Schiff") made up Ruth Bader Ginsburg's deathbed statement that "my most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed." His political lexicon isn't changing.

Trump’s diatribes have emboldened far-right extremists and white nationalists.

 

But wait, you just said that rising anti-Semitism was the biggest concern besides COVID-19!

At the same time, Democratic progressives have ramped up their anti-Israel rhetoric, supporting the BDS movement under the banner of free speech. Both parties are guilty of fomenting anti-Semitism. But for an Orthodox Jew, what’s the bigger present threat? A far-right extremist in a distant rural town, or a looter in a Jewish neighborhood?

 
This makes no sense. Does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embolden people to loot in Jewish neighborhoods? I’ve never once heard that correlation.

By the way, there were at least two far-right extremists in the last few years in Pittsburgh and Poway (just outside San Diego). Those aren’t distant rural towns. And just from personal experiences, Jewish agencies have spent millions of dollars on security upgrades since the Tree of Life synagogue shooting rather than since 9/11.

This is out of order, but one final quote from Rose.

We also support government funding of secular studies curriculums within parochial schools, as many Western countries do. 

If that’s your #1 election issue, I guess you’re going to vote for Trump. I mean, almost all school funding occurs on the local or state level, but go with Trump over Biden here. By the way, you know what else is a pressing item for Jews and all Americans? Healthcare. Trump's entire healthcare plan has been to abolish Obamacare, so much so that his administration is currently waiting to argue this in front of the Supreme Court. How many times over the last 3.5+ years has Trump said that he would have a new, better healthcare plan? It's late September, and there's still no plan or proposal.

Finally, please listen to Trump’s phone call with various leaders, rabbis, and Holocaust survivors (who he meets “on the campaign trail often”). I’d love to see a list of who exactly was on this call. Oh, and when and where exactly is Trump meeting all of these Holocaust survivors? Is it before or after his speeches at airport hangers? Anyway, while it seems like the premise of this call was to celebrate Rosh Hashanah and wish people a Happy New Year, the vast majority of the nearly 15 minutes of the video consists of Trump talking about himself and encouraging everyone listening to vote for him. A "may you be inscribed in the book of life" statement would have been nice. At around the 9:30 mark, he says, “If we don’t win, Israel is in big trouble.” Once again, he’s downplaying panic, right? He also complained that he only got 25% of the Jewish vote in 2016 even though “I have a son-in-law and a daughter who are Jewish” and grandchildren that are Jewish. Yes, when most people vote for president, the religion of the candidate’s family members is the deciding factor. I think he really feels like he should get more votes from American Jews simply for this reason.

At the end of the call, Trump says that “we love your country also.” Aren’t the people on this call American? American Jews certainly have a connection to Israel, but the United States is our country.

(JTA has a good summary of this call.)

If you made it all the way through this post, thank you. Look, I know that this post isn’t going to change anyone’s mind, especially because I can’t imagine that there are any undecided voters at this point. I’m just trying to share that Israel will be just fine without Trump, and America will be better without him too.

Shana Tova, and may you be inscribed in the Book of Life!

(Photo of Trump and MBS from Getty. Photo of Biden and Harris by Anthony Lanzilote of Bloomberg.)

UPDATE: It was only a few hours after this post that I saw this story which states "After phone calls with Jewish lawmakers, Trump has muttered that Jews "are only in it for themselves" and "stick together" in an ethnic allegiance that exceeds other loyalties, officials said." Maybe this isn't true, but this certainly sounds like something he would say, right?