2025 Washington Nationals Recap

Back in March, I asked an esteemed group of individuals for their predictions for the 2025 Nationals season. Want to see how everyone did? Or would rather bury the original post and hope that it never sees the light of day again? Well, since I already created a blog post title, feel free to see how we did. Or don't.

1. There are high expectations for 2023 #2 overall pick Dylan Crews. What do you expect from him this season?

Crews, the #2 overall pick after some guy named Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, only played in 85 games thanks to injuries. His overall stats of 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases seem encouraging. 27 RBIs, a .208 batting average, and .280 on-base percentage are not so encouraging. Crews was one of the best college hitters of the last 20 years, so it seems unlikely that he forgot to hit overnight. Still, it's been a difficult adjustment to the major leagues. Most of the group had high expectations for Crews, and he didn't live up to them. Frank probably was the closest in his predictions of putting "some pressure on the defense with his base stealing ability." 

2. Who will lead the Nationals in home runs in 2025?

This ended up being an easy one. Nearly everyone (Ryan, Frank, Richard, Chris, Marc, and Sean) picked James Wood who led the Nats with 31 home runs.

3. Will the Nationals be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Pretty much everyone through the team would be sellers and they were though not really any big names.  Kyle Finnegan went to Detroit, Amed Rosario to the Yankees, Michael Soroka to the Cubs, Alex Call to the Dodgers, and Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia to the Angels. You have to be very good at Immaculate Grid or really, really, really follow the Nationals to know most of these players. (Maybe Josh Bell was frustrated not getting traded?)

4. Will CJ Abrams go to a casino this season?

Probably a mean question. I'll just pretend that I didn't ask this.

5. Who will be the team's surprise/breakout player this year?

Richard wrote that this player isn't on the opening day lineup and he was right. Daylen Lile joined the Nats in late May and excelled after the All-Star break. Lile hit .304 in August with 1 home run and 8 RBIs to go along with a .353 on-base percentage. In September, Lile hit .391(!!!) with 6 home runs, 19 RBIs, a .440 on-base percentage and .772 slugging percentage. That's a 1.212 OPS! (OPS is On-Base plus Slugging.) While I understand that this stat is for only one month, as a comparison, Aaron Judge led the majors with a 1.144 OPS and Ohtani was next with a 1.014. 

Partial credit to Ryan for predicting Jose Ferrer. Ferrer pitched pretty well in the closer role after the team traded Finnegan.

6. Which Nats Summer Concert are you looking forward to the most?

OAR and Nelly were the right answers, but there really weren't any wrong answers.

7. Finally, what's your overall prediction for the Nationals? (ex. record, finish in the NL East).

Well, the team was pretty lousy this year finishing 66-96 and last place in the NL East. The record was only better than the Chicago White Sox and dreadful Colorado Rockies. The team fired the manager and general manager mid-season. While I'm not sure anyone would call this rock bottom, I think it's an understatement to say that the Nationals 2025 season was a disappointment. No one thought the Nationals would be THIS bad, though Frank was the closest predicting 70 wins.

Josh Bell photo by Benny Sieu - Imagn Images

2025-2026 Pittsburgh Sports Predictions

For years, I've asked people to share predictions about teams and even elections. For example, before the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates season, I asked for predictions about the overall record of the team, the status of the team's manager (I hope that you're doing well, Derek Shelton!), and who would lead the team in home runs. This is a little different. Today, I asked people for predictions for multiple Pittsburgh-area teams in multiple sports for over a one-year period.

Here are our fabulous participants in these festivities:

Josh: Author of Josh’s World and the reason why I included Penn State questions here. (Bluesky)

Chris Carter: Steelers Reporter and host of North Shore Drive Podcast for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Host of Locked On Steelers too and regular on WPXI. Chris is everywhere and can always be found when there’s a score of 13-9. (Bluesky)

Matt Gajtka: Broadcaster and fitness coach among his multiple roles. (Twitter)

Chris Dokish: Covered Pitt for many years and may know the program better than anyone. (Twitter)

Saxboy: World-traveler, creator of amazing videos, and host of The Saxcast podcast. (Bluesky)

Sean: Founder of Sean’s Ramblings in 2005. Been doing this way too long! (Bluesky)

2025-2026 Steelers

Josh: 10-7. They miss the playoffs

Chris: 11-6, 2nd place AFC North, lose AFC championship game

Matt: 11-6 and they win a Wild Card playoff game, before falling in the Divisional round. I think Rodgers has one last solid season and Pittsburgh will be the beneficiary of it. They are not Super Bowl caliber, but we can finally stop talking about the playoff win drought. 

Chris D.: The defense should be excellent, and if it's not there's going to be a lot of explaining that they'll need to do. The offense, with Aaron Rodgers, should at least be average, which should improve them to 11-6, and maybe finally a first round win. Also, I think Payton Wilson is going to become a star this season.

Saxboy: 9–8, miss playoffs mid draft pick, rinse and repeat. 

Sean: Makes the playoff and win a first-round game.

2025-2026 Penguins

Josh: Yikes, I have not followed the off-season at all. I will say 44 wins, with a first round playoff win

Chris: Miss playoffs again

Matt: 87 points and a couple of wins out of the playoffs. This isn't truly a 'tanking' roster and Malkin gives it an extra boost with a final-season push. But, there's not enough here to put them in the top half of the NHL. At least one more year with the also-rans.

Chris D.: It's hard to say what's in store for them at the moment. They're finally starting to ramp up their rebuild, and if they do that by trading some of their better veterans, then they'll almost definitely have a worse season than this past year. As the roster looks now, they're not really bad, but they may get to that point if they make those trades.

Saxboy: Tank season successfully executed, high draft pick, draft 18 year old kid from Ontario

Sean: Finishes about 10 points out of the playoffs. Team trades Erik Karlsson during the season and Letang and/or Malkin retire after the season.

2025 Pitt Football

Josh: 6-6. Then a loss in a bowl game

Chris: 8-4 regular season, decent bowl game

Matt: 8-4 and they beat West Virginia as part of a 3-0 start. After that ...

Chris D.: They have two All-Americans in Desmond Reid and Kyle Louis, a returning offensive coordinator, the returning starting quarterback in Eli Holstein, who looked like an All-American at the beginning of the season, skill players that now fit the system, a veteran offensive line, and a potentially excellent defense. They flopped the last two seasons, but on paper, they should be a 9-win top 25 team. But it's hard to give them the benefit of the doubt because of how the last two seasons went. I don't predict records including a bowl because those are total crapshoots now, so I'll say an 8-4 regular season record. Anything less is a failure, and I'm not sure with all that they have that 8-4 wouldn't even be a little disappointing. The only other teams that have two All-Americans are elite programs. Like it usually works with Pitt, and especially Narduzzi, it will come down to how well the quarterback does.

Saxboy: 9-3, would love that. Holstein is gonna do his thing.

Sean: 8-4 and a bowl win at either the Go Bowling Military Bowl in DC or the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando.

2025 Penn State Football

Josh: 12-0, National Champs!

Chris: 10-2, College Football Playoffs make Final Four

Matt: One-loss national champions. Don't know much about college football, so why not.

Chris D.: On paper, there may not be a more talented team in the country, but James Franklin has a way of being out coached. Until he shows that he can coach better than his opponents, I have to assume that he'll come up short again.

Saxboy: 11-1, lose Natty 

Sean: Loses to Ohio State in conference play and then in the quarterfinals of the playoffs. Makes Josh sad.

2025 Pitt Men’s Soccer

Josh: Ummm, they win the ACC

Chris: sweet 16

Matt: A trip to the NCAA tournament again, and a berth in the national quarterfinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Makes the NCAA tournament but loses in the second round.

2025 Pitt Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Final Four

Chris: National championship loss

Matt: Another tourney trip, but this time they fall out before the final four.

Chris D.: The best program at Pitt over the last few years, but until they win a championship, they're going to be looked at always coming up short when it counts the most. That sounds harsh, but that's what comes with being No. 1 for most of the year, and also having the best player in the country in Olivia Babcock. Pitt needs a national championship again, and hopefully this is finally the year.

Sean: Not as good as last year. Loses in the national quarterfinals.

2025 Penn State Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Back-to-back National Champs!

Chris: Final Four loss

Matt: Another big year, even if it ends in the national semifinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Trip to the championship, but not back-to-back titles.

2025-2026 Pitt Men’s Basketball

Josh: Slightly better than Penn State men's basketball

Chris: Bubble team just miss NCAA Tournament with 21 or so wins.

Matt: Let's call it a winning season, but a .500 season in the ACC and not enough to make the tourney.

Chris D.: Jeff Capel is very good at accumulating talent (from high school, the portal, and internationally), but I don't think he's a good enough coach for his team to be better than their talent. And the talent this year is not among the best in the ACC. I don't think they'll be bad, but I don't see a tournament run either. I would guess that they'll have somewhere around 16-18 wins. On the other hand, nobody thought a team of Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, Blake Hinson, and Greg Elliott would make the tournament a year after the Panthers were 11-21. Probable starters Damarco Minor, Dishon Jackson, and Cam Corhen are solid, but not game changers, so if the team performs better than expected, they'll have to have big seasons from at least three of Beebah Cummings, Omari Witherspoon, Roman Siulepa, and Barry Dunning, Jr., but that may be asking a lot.

Saxboy: NCAA tournament berth by play in game. L in that

Sean: For no reason other than being a homer, the team makes the NCAA tournament and advances to the round of 32.

2026 Pirates

Josh: 74 wins

Chris: Losing record, no playoffs

Matt: 82-80. I figure they almost have to be better. It'll be another banner year for Skenes and we start to see some supplementation from the farm. I have a hard time saying they'll be legit playoff contenders, though, even in an era of three wild cards per league.

Chris D.: Not to be dramatic, but I honestly see no hope as long as Bob Nutting is the owner. They are both cheap and incompetent, and that's a deadly combination. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and the top prospect in the minors- one a superstar, and one on the verge of being a superstar- and there still feels like there's no hope because Nutting simply doesn't care if they win or not. He just wants the money.

Saxboy: I can’t

Sean: The team finally either trades for a good hitter or signs a free agent hitter under 32 and the team finishes over .500 and competes for a Wild Card spot.

Will any 2025-2026 Robert Morris or Duquesne men’s or women’s basketball team make the NCAA tournament?

Josh: Yes

Chris: No on RMU/Duquesne

Matt: I'll go ahead and say the RMU men's hoopsters make the tournament again. They've gotten in a nice groove in the Horizon League. 

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Not this season.

Will any player on any team win an award? (If yes, who and what?)

Josh: Skenes-Cy Young

Chris: Jalen Ramsey DPOY

Matt: Rodgers gets votes for Comeback Player of the Year, and a freshly-engaged Skenes wins the NL Cy Young in '26. Dan Muse gets some support for the Jack Adams.

Chris D.: I think Paul Skenes is pretty much guaranteed to be the National League Cy Young Award winner.

Saxboy: Bad decision of the year award: saxboybilly18 - for going to the Seattle-Kansas City-Minneapolis

Sean: Olivia Babcock wins national player of the year in volleyball. She’s Pittsburgh’s best athlete not named Skenes or Crosby!

Please share any other predictions here (ex. Steelers draft pick, coaches fired, etc.). 

Josh: Steelers trade up to get a QB in the first round. The Pirates do not sign any hitters, aside from their usual reclamation projects

Chris: Steelers pick LaNorris Sellers first round in 2026 NFL Draft

Matt: The Penguins have a few lottery balls in the hopper, but there's no Gavin McKenna lifeline coming their way!

Chris D.: The Steelers are going to get their next starting quarterback in the first round next year, even if they have to trade up to make sure they get the one they want. And it's going to be a very dramatic scene since it will happen in front of a huge throng of Pittsburghers. Don Kelly won't be retained. If Pitt basketball has a poor season, I would not be surprised, if the buyout isn't high, that they get rid of Jeff Capel. But it would take a really bad season and a very low buyout.

Sean: Snoop Dogg, Pat McAfee, and Bret Michaels will all have some role in the NFL draft in Pittsburgh.

Finally, will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged before the end of the 2026 MLB season?

Josh: No, they get engaged at Taylor and Travis' wedding

Chris: No comment on Skenes/Dunne LOL

Seems like Matt answered this question above with a yes!
 
Chris D.: No. He's too busy dominating.
 
Sean: Yes!

Please feel free to give your own predictions in the comments section below, and we'll see how we did at the end of 2026!

Photos by the incredible Dave DiCello, the Pittsburgh Panthers website, Ethan Shulman of The Pitt News, and Roe Ethridge of GQ.

2025 Washington Nationals Predictions

I started this blog in January 2005, and the Washington Nationals moved from Montreal and played their first home games at RFK Stadium nearly three months later. While I will always consider myself to be a Pittsburgh sports fan, I have attended dozens of Nats games over the last 20 years including the Max Scherzer near perfect game / no-hitter and Stephen Strasburg's debut. I think I have some Nats credentials here. Therefore, in addition, to my annual Pirates predictions blog post, I decided to create a Nationals predictions blog post this year. I reached out to a variety of people, and I think you'll enjoy their thoughts. Here's the starting lineup.

Well, different starting lineup.

Ryan Clary: Host of the Locked on Nationals podcast and producer of Grant & Danny on 106.7 The Fan. (Twitter)

Frank Hanrahan: WTOP sports reported and fellow Ithaca College graduate (Twitter)

John Domen: Anchor and reporter at WTOP (Twitter)

Richard of The Nats Report: Arguably the best blog covering the Nationals. (Twitter)

Chris Cillizza: Formerly of The Washington Post and CNN, Chris now has his own Substack which I highly recommend. (Twitter)

Marc Goldstein: Northern Virginia native who has his own website and writes for WOUB (Twitter)

Andrew Moses: Host of the podcast Everybody Pulls the Tarp. (Twitter)

Sean: Author of Sean’s Ramblings which you’re reading right now. Still hoping for media credentials to cover a game at Nats Park someday. (Blue Sky)

There are also some special guest participants at the end of this post. 

1. There are high expectations for 2023 #2 overall pick Dylan Crews. What do you expect from him this season?

Ryan: I expect Dylan Crews to be a very impactful defender in right field. He’ll establish himself as one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball, that’s one of my bold takes. I think offensively he will have a middle of the road season, with some highs and lows throughout the season. He’ll have to learn how to hit the off speed/ breaking pitches.

Frank: I would expect Crews to be the every day right fielder for the Nats and be a real threat at the top of the lineup as well as put some pressure on the defense with his base stealing ability.  Team needs a spark plug like him.

John: You always worry about lofty, rookie of the year type expectations.  Just ask Jackson Holliday last year.  But the experience Crews got last year will definitely serve him well.  If he wins Rookie of the Year, then great, though that award isn’t often indicative of stardom.  At 23 you just hope for a solid year.  If he’s simply “good” this year – say .270 and 15-20 homers – then you have to feel great.  But with young guys who have amazing tools, I hesitate to get too specific because you never know when it’ll actually click.  The Nats will feel great if that’s this year, but if you have to wait a year to see him explode, that’s fine too. 

Richard: It will be interesting to see Crews at the Major League level all season. I am expecting big things from him and a breakout year and will live up to all the hype that has been placed on the rookie. However, he will fall short in ROY voting, but it will be fun to watch for Nationals fans.

Chris:.265, 15 HR, 70 RBI if he plays the full year. Which is great!

Marc: I really think that Crews is going to win Rookie of the Year in the NL. Yes, Roki Sasaki brings high pedigree, but Crews already has MLB experience. Additionally, I think Crews has played really well during Spring Training and done a great job of hitting the play to RF with authority. I can clearly see him going 20/20 this year.

Andrew: Big things - 30+ homers, 90+ RBIs. Breakout year.

Sean: Solid season and finishes with 15+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. (Not quite a 20/20 season.) Finishes top 3 in the NL rookie of the year voting.

2. Who will lead the Nationals in home runs in 2025?

Ryan: James Wood will lead the team with 30 homeruns in 2025.

Frank: I think James Wood is going to have a breakout season and lead the team in homers.

John: Does CJ Abrams take another leap this year and club the crap out of the ball?  On a team lacking a consistently menacing threat – unless Crews takes that big leap this season – it is probably Abrams. 

Richard: I predict James Wood will lead the Nationals in home runs this season.

Chris: Wood. (I hope).

Marc: I think that James Wood will lead the team in homers. He nearly led the team in homers last year despite only being called up in July, so he is the obvious pick. I could also see someone like Josh Bell or Nate Lowe leading in HRs though.

Andrew: Crews

Sean: James Wood with at least 25.

3. Will the Nationals be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Ryan: I think we will be on the fence. I don’t see us selling anyone big outside of Kyle Finnegan, but I also don’t see us moving off of any prospects. I think we stay put for the most part.

Frank: Nationals will be cheap as they usually are and be sellers at the trade deadline.

John: This is a team that has to be sellers again.  They have a few talented pieces for a future playoff run, but not nearly enough just yet.  That said, how many guys look like someone who will fetch you a big return?  Though with what relief pitching commands near the trade deadline, get a dominant arm or two in the pen and you might get a couple dudes who can be pieces in 2027 or so. 

Richard: Sellers

Chris: Still sellers. One more year!

Marc: I don't think that Nats will be buyers or sellers actually. I think they will stand pat or flip some of their veteran players on expiring contracts, if anything. Players like Jorge Lopez, Kyle Finnegan, Amed Rosario and Mike Soroka are all trade candidates if the team decides to sell. That being said, I doubt Rizzo will want to sell based on the last few deadlines.

Andrew: Sellers

Sean: Sellers. Josh Bell will continue of streak of getting traded for the 17th straight season.

4. Will CJ Abrams go to a casino this season? (Sean’s note: CJ Abrams was essentially suspended near the end of the 2024 season for apparently spending all night at a casino. It was a big deal. With that written, I probably should have asked this question differently. At least one person didn’t participate in this prediction post because of this question.)

Ryan: No, CJ and the team has out that in the rear view mirror and we are all good on that front. 

Frank: CJ Abrams better be attending gamblers anonymous meetings and not even thinking about heading back to a casino.

John: Bet you no one cares as long as he’s hitting…

Richard: I just wanted to let you know that I won't be able to answer this question.  

Chris:  GOD I HOPE NOT 

Marc: CJ is going to silence a lot of doubters this season. I have been really pleased with his answers to everything from the press so far have demonstrated he is past the issue. Whether he actually goes to a casino, I am not sure. Maybe he does, but it likely will not be as late with a game the next afternoon or in the public eye.

Andrew: No

Sean: I feel like CJ and the Nationals probably have some type of agreement stating that he can’t go to a casino.

5. Who will be the team's surprise/breakout player this year?

Ryan: I think your surprise breakout will be Jose Ferrer, I think he will be the best bullpen piece that we have and he could look to make his first All-Star game. He’s got all the goods to be an elite arm for the next decade plus.

Frank: Opening day starter McKenzie Gore showed flashes last season as being a pretty solid major league starter but I expect Gore to take a bigger step with a bigger role and dare I say a near 20 game winner.

John: I’m going to say James Wood, not necessarily a huge surprise, but I think he blows up this year.  That’s also partly because a buddy of mine coached him in high school, but he put up good numbers at a young age and as he gets older, you figure he’s only going to get better.  Him and Crews together in the outfield can be really special.  Maybe not this season, but pretty soon. 

Richard: Honestly, this player isn't in the lineup just yet.  

Chris: Wood. I am also a Jacob Young guy.

Marc: A surprise/breakout player, for me, is two fold. Offensively, I think that Jacob Young is going to the next steps to be a contributor outside of his blazing speed and defense. He put on some muscle this offseason and has done well in ST. On the mound, I think that three pitchers will break out. The first is Jake Irvin, who already broke out to a certain extent in the first half last season, but really fell off in the second half. If he limits the home runs, he can be one of the best pitchers in the starting rotation. Another one I think will break out is Mitchell Parker. I really like his stuff from the left side and he has a year of big league experience under his belt already. The third one is Jose A. Ferrer. He is a lefty that throws a 100 mph sinker. How much more needs to be said? I think that Ferrer can become the closer by the end of the season if the Nats trade Finnegan. If nothing else, he will be a strong relief option for the back end of the bullpen.

Andrew: Not sure he's a surprise but Crews will breakout bigtime this year.

Sean: Pitcher Brad Lord. The Nationals bullpen has been an adventure for years. Maybe the rookie can bring some stability. More importantly, lots of potential nicknames. Lord of the Bullpen. Sith Lord. Lunch Lord (for any Girls5eva fans).

6. Which Nats Summer Concert are you looking forward to the most: O.A.R., Natasha Bedingfield, Nelly, Sam Hunt, Ja Rule/Ashanti, or Riley Green (who is apparently not the Detroit Tigers' outfielder)?

Ryan: Gotta be Nelly! Nelly has some big hits so I’m excited for him.

Frank: Sam Hunt is a concert I would stay after to watch. I am a deep undercover country fan and Hunt has some bangers!

John: My heart says OAR, but you gotta have a little nostalgia for Nelly too.  What’s happening now?!

Richard: O.A.R.  Shattered. Duh!! 

Chris: Uh, this is not exactly a murderer’s row of music. Ja Rule probably.

Marc: For the concerts, I am excited for Sam Hunt and Nelly. I am a country music fan so those names are the ones I am most interested in.

Andrew: OAR

Sean: I asked this question to my oldest son who replied Nelly. If we go, I hope he plays Hot In Herre.

7. Finally, what's your overall prediction for the Nationals? (ex. record, finish in the NL East)

Ryan: I think the Nats finish 78-84. The NL East will be too tough for them to break .500 but they will be a sneaky decent team and will be a hard out. Young, fun, scrappy team. 

Frank: In 2025, the Nationals will win 70 games as the cheap rebuild continues and they will finish fourth in the NL East. I need a reason to watch this team and hopefully Crews, Wood or Abrams will play well enough to make the Nats summer time appointment viewing.

John: Thanks to the eternal ineptitude, or apathy, of the Miami Marlins, the Nationals figure to be solidly in fourth place in the division.  If Crews has a monster year this season, maybe they threaten for third, but I think there’s a wide disparity between them and the contenders that have much higher expectations in the division.  This Nats team could be a bit scrappy sometimes, a definite pain in the butt for opposing pitchers if you have to play them enough, but it’s hard to win 8-7 every game.  And with a pitching staff that still seems anonymous and lacking for the most part, it’s hard to envision them being better than a mediocre team this year.  But I also say that as an Orioles fan who knows teams can come out of nowhere faster than you think.  So if I’m wrong, well, I won’t be surprised.  But from out here my expectations aren’t very high. 

Richard: I predict the Nationals finish a couple of games over .500 and will be third in the division.  

Chris: 3rd in NL behind Mets and Braves, 81-81.

Marc: Predictions: I think the Nats finish somewhere between the range of 75-85 wins. In my most optimistic opinion, I think the young core can lead the team to a Wild Card berth, much like the O's in 2023. Conversely, this core has yet to play a full season together and relying on a team that has an average age in the late 20s is a risk. The lack of veteran leaders like Jayson Werth/Scherzer can easily hurt this team in a maturity standpoint. It is easy for me to look at the NL East and say they will finish in 4th, but I genuinely think one of ATL/NYM/PHI will falter and, if the Nats play well, they can finish in 3rd. Every season, a team overperforms and a team underperforms. Who says that team to overperform can't be the Nats?

Andrew: Finish 4th in the NL East

Sean: 75 wins. Slight improvement from last season, but they can’t compete with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies.

BONUS PREDICTIONS:

You may know Mike Ploger as the in-game host for Nationals and Capitals games (as well as being a realtor). While he was unable to provide predictions based on his role in the organization, he shared that the Nationals will go 162-0 and a World Series (with a winking smiley face emoji). (Sean's note: Since the Nationals lost on Thursday, I will amend Mike's prediction to the team going 161-1 and a World Series!)  (Instagram)

Caroline, the lead vocalist and guitarist, for the DC-area band Cinema Hearts also shared this:

I'm just proud to say I was a Nats fan since they started in 2005. My only prediction is I hope everyone has a great summer watching baseball and that I will one day sing in the stadium!

Thanks to everyone for participating. Please feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments below.

Photo Credits:

Dylan Crews by Geoff Burke-USA Today

CJ Abrams by G Fiume-Getty

Nelly by John Amis-AP

Cinema Hearts from their Instagram page by Natania Krebs.

2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Baseball season starts this week, so it's time for my annual Pirates post where I ask a group of people for their season predictions. While I probably write this every year, I think it's true that this year includes the best group of participants since I started doing these posts. So with that, I'm proud to introduce the panelists.

Nubyjas Wilborn – Pirates fans will remember Nubyjas for covering the Pirates for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette a few years ago. He currently covers the Tennessee Titans for SI. (Twitter)

James Santelli – The biggest Pitt women’s volleyball fan you’ll ever meet! (Blue Sky)

Ethan Hullihen – Arguably the best person to follow on Twitter for Pirates payroll and transactions. (Twitter)

Josh Croyle – Author of Josh’s World and always up for participating in any of my silly or not silly predictions posts. (Blue Sky)

Jim Lokay – Pittsburgh born and bred and FOX 5 DC anchor. (Blue Sky)

Noah Hiles – Pirates beat writer for the Post-Gazette. (Twitter)

Jim Rosati – You know him from NorthShore Nine podcast (Twitter)

Saxboy – Puts together incredible Pirate-related (and other) videos. (Twitter)

1986-1992 Pirates – The best place on the internet to find pictures, videos, and more of the 86-92 Pirates. (Blue Sky)

Andrew Moses: Host of the podcast Everybody Pulls the Tarp. He recently had a great interview with former Pirates manager Clint Hurdle. (Twitter)

1. Let's start with the biggest star on the team and one of the biggest in baseball. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

Nubyjas: Paul Skenes is one of those rare athletes that I’d happily pay to watch even if it means filling Bob Nutting’s wallet. 😀 But seriously he’s a special talent who if he stays healthy can be a perennial CY Young candidate. I expect a great season.

James: It appears that anything less than a Cy Young Award and the Pirates' first no-hitter in 28 years (and first solo no-hitter in 49 years) would be a disappointment. Is it fair to actually expect those from Skenes? Why not! I would say the sky's the limit, but his limit may put him out of Earth's orbit.

Ethan: It wouldn’t be fair to expect MORE than what Skenes provided last year. Sure, it’s certainly possible—and maybe even likely—I’m just saying we shouldn’t expect it. With this season being his first full campaign, I can’t imagine the team totally lets the reins off quite yet. Other than that, nothing would really surprise me, but again, just don’t expect it. Young pitching is fleeting.

Josh: Fan expectations are insanely high, everyone seems to think he will go 28-0 with at least ten no-hitters. I do not think he will be quite that good. I am thinking 14-7, 2.97 ERA, finishes top five in Cy Young.

Jim L.: He'll dominate once again -- maybe not ASG starter stuff that early on, but there's no reason to think he'll regress.

Noah: The sky's the limit for Skenes. I think it's reasonable to predict he will be well in the mix for this year's National League Cy Young. I personally think he wins the award after leading baseball in ERA and strikeouts. 

Jim R.: I'm not sure it’s fair to expect to see what he did last year, but I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL this season. Let’s go with something like 15-5 with a 2.55 ERA and he finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting. 

1992: It’s going to be difficult for Skenes to top such an incredible rookie season. But he’s a student of the game and he’s aiming to do just that. In that vein, Skenes has been tinkering with a couple new pitches this spring in an effort to try and induce contact so he can lower his pitch count and thus go deeper into games. I think this approach and adjustment will cause him to take somewhat of a “step back” because the movement on his pitches is just too good. It’s simply hard for hitters to make contact on him. I think he needs to double down on what he does best, go for the strikeout and make batters try and miss his pitches. He’s also going to be without his personal catcher Yasmani Grandal. In 2024, Skenes for the most part allowed more base runners and ran up high pitch counts in his first few innings of starts, but then locked in and became much more efficient as the game progressed. Grandal had a knack of working with Paul to make adjustments during the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Don’t get me wrong, Skenes is still going to have a very good season. I can envision him with an ERA in the low 3’s, 14 wins, and 250 strikeouts in over 30 starts this season.

Andrew: Huge season. 15+ wins, over 1K/IP, flirts with a no-hitter at least 1-2 times. Cy Young candidate.

Saxboy: Continued dominance, and a full season of starts which is so exciting. Kinda feels like Nikola Jokic where he'll be breaking his own records year after year in a super efficient fashion.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs in 2025? (Sean’s Note: My pick of Jack Suwinski in 2024 was so bad that I disqualified myself from participating in this year’s predictions.)

Nubyjas: While he’s not a power hitter I will pick Bryan Reynolds because he at least makes consistent contact. I’d love for O’Neil Cruz or Ke’Bryan Hayes to prove me wrong.

James: I'll call for Bryan Reynolds with the first 30-homer season of his career. Let's get him one before he gets to the sorry end of the age curve.

Ethan: Not much of a choice here—the smart money is either on Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz. I’m going with Cruz, and let’s say somewhere between 25 and 30.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with just 23 HRs.

Jim L.: Bryan Reynolds?

Noah: I will go with Oneil Cruz. If I have to pick a number, I will guess 33. 

Jim R.: Gonna have to go with Cruz. Hoping the move to CF can allow him to just go out there and play ball. 

1992: Obvious answer is Oneil Cruz. He has the most raw power on the club. But I do not believe he is going to go up there swinging for the fences every time like he did the first season-and-a-half of his career. He’s going to be focused more on putting the ball in play, and getting productive outs. He’ll have a higher batting average but that’s going to limit his homers to 28.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Oneil Cruz

3. Will Derek Shelton be fired as the Pirates manager during the season, fired after the season, or be the team's manager in 2026?

Nubyjas: If you would’ve asked me this before the Jared Jones news I would’ve said no because I believe the Pirates pitching would’ve overcame deficiencies in hitting. But. If Jones is out for a significant time period it could get ugly.

James: Unless he can get the Bucs over .500 and in contention when the Steelers are playing games that matter, nope, he's toast. I'll predict he gets the axe in mid-September and Don Kelly takes over.

Ethan: I’m not sure those making the decision are the type that would make such a move during the season, but I don’t think the club is going to be good enough (see below) to be considered to have taken the next step, so let’s say Shelton goes after the season.

Josh: No, I think he is fired before the end of the season.

Jim L.: There's a difference between being the manager of a bad team and the manager of an underperforming team. It's not his fault that Nutting doesn't give him what he needs to win, but it's easier to fire a manager than it is to admit fault (or sell the team.) So, I think he's safe this year. Next year? That's anyone's guess.

Noah: I don't think Derek Shelton will be fired this season, but I also don't think he will be the manager next year. 

Jim R.: Fired.

1992: I like Derek Shelton the person but don’t believe he is the right manager to lead them to the playoffs. I just believe after 5 years of losing the team needs a different voice. That said, this is an organization that is painfully slow to make changes. Only a complete dumpster fire would cost people jobs (see 2019 season with embarrassing arrests and clubhouse fights). I believe the club will show enough improvement that Derek will keep his job and be back in 2026.

Andrew: Manager in 2026. This is a step forward year for the Pirates.

Saxboy: Shelton saw me at spring training, laughed and said "You're the guy who rides the bike!!!" so he should be given a lifetime contract. In all honesty I have no idea, I tend to lean more on the thought that the baseball manager has less to do with the teams performance than people think. But much smarter people than me tell me otherwise... I JUST WANT TO WIN GAMES!!! 

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Nubyjas: Sure. Why not?

James: Yes, aboard the Gateway Clipper Fleet. But not on the Princess or the Duchess. Oh, no. It's gotta be the Empress.

Ethan: I really couldn’t care less about social media “stardom”, so I’ll just say I hope those kids are happy. And if I had to bet…I’m going with no.

Josh: Yes

Jim L.: I don't care.

Noah: No idea. Probably not. 

Jim R.: No

1992: Yes, my guess is it will happen after the season concludes, around the holidays in 2025 before the new year. 

Andrew: 2025 offseason.

Saxboy: They're wayyyyyy too young. Don't get married until you're at least 30!

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

Nubyjas: Ji Hawn Bae if for no other reason than it’s time for him to show and prove or move on.

James: Call me naïve, but I'm still a believer in Henry Davis. There's something in the bat that I can't shake. And when Endy or Bart gets hurt, because a catcher always gets hurt, I think Davis will seize the moment and put some punch into the lineup this summer.

Ethan: This really isn’t my kind of thing, like at all, so I’m not sure my answer matters. I would be willing to bet Oneil Cruz would be the popular pick, so I’ll try and come up with someone different. I’ll say that Kyle Nicolas comes up after some bullpen glut gets sorted through, finds some control, and becomes a big contributor to the bullpen.

Josh: Bubba Chandler...I think he comes up early and has a solid year, perhaps finishing in the top 3 for ROY

Jim L.: I'm pulling for Spencer Horowitz.

Noah: I will go with Kyle Nicolas. I expect him to have a really good year out of the bullpen. 

Jim R.: I hope there’s a few, but let’s go with Nick Yorke. 

1992: Someone from the bullpen. Let’s go with Kyle Nicolas. People have been raving about his stuff for a long time, and he is good friends with Skenes and Jones. I think their mentality and preparation will rub off on him, and I could see Kyle emerging to be a solid 8th inning guy on a team that desperately needs a lockdown bullpen after last year’s disasters.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Dennis Santana becomes closer, can also report that dude is the man!

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves NOT make the playoffs?

Nubyjas: Too much would have to go wrong for the Dodgers to miss the playoffs. Hell, they were without Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts yet had no problem smoking the Cubs in Japan. If anything the NL East gauntlet could eliminate either the Braves or Mets because the Phils are a good team and the Marlins can catch you slipping.

James: Hmm let's go with the Mets missing out. If one of Lindor or Soto gets hurt or has a protracted slump, things could really get interesting -- especially since the Braves are a more complete team in that division.

Ethan: Injuries are already creeping up on both the Mets and Braves already, but in the end, I’d say it’s more likely than not all three make it. However, I’d say the Mets have the worst chance.

Josh: Yes, the Braves miss out this year

Jim L.: MLB is broken. They all SHOULD because they spend the money, but somehow, I think the Mets revert to their old ways and vastly underperform this year and miss the postseason.

Noah: The Mets will miss the playoffs. Not enough pitching. 

Jim R.: No

1992: The NL East is loaded. The NL West is loaded. Outside the division winners, your wild cards will come from those 2 divisions. I could see the Mets missing the playoffs, and the other wild card going to Arizona who just missed out last year.

Andrew: Braves won't

Saxboy: They're all in!

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates? (Record, finish in the NL Central, etc.)

Nubyjas: My prediction is pain. It’s hard to see this team finishing higher than third in the Central which is a shame considering how weak the division seems to be this season. Pirates will finish sub .500 again.

James: 77-84 (Some game against the Nationals or the Reds late in the season gets rained out with no re-scheduling), which still winds up being good enough for 3rd place in the NL Central. Maybe I'm just pessimistic because I'm making predictions right after word that Jared Jones is having elbow trouble -- but that news only illustrates how many things must go right, and how little can go wrong, for the 2025 Pirates to be a playoff contender. I'll note that I was two wins on the optimistic side last year with a 78-84 prediction.

Ethan: As anyone reading this hopefully knows, I’m really not one for bloviating or prognosticating, so thanks for bearing with me (I couldn’t even get one numbers question?!). Personally, I don’t think the team is going to be very good—they weren’t very good last year, and didn’t do a ton to get much better. Internal improvement is their only hope, and the list of “if such and such goes right, they may have a chance” can only get so long before there actually isn’t one. Ultimately, I’m not sure they finish above .500, so let’s go with 80-82.

Josh: 74-88...4th place.

Jim L.: 4th place. 78-84. If they open strong as they've done in the past, it'll be short-lived. If they start off sluggish, they'll only turn it around enough to skirt .500. I'm sorry, I want this team to win but I'm just numb to the lack of commitment by the ownership.

Noah: I think the Pirates will finish 82-80. They will remain in wild card contention until the final weeks of September, but ultimately run out of gas down the final stretch. 

Jim R.: 76-86, 4th place 

1992: I think the team will show enough improvement to keep management’s jobs safe but will fall short of the playoffs and .500. They’ll be in “contention” for that last Wild card spot in September but fade down the stretch. My prediction is 4th place, 80-82.

Andrew: 83 wins, 3rd in NL Central

Saxboy: I need to stay optimistic, we are due for at least ONE offensive break out. Give me 82-80 and sniffing around the final wild card. I NEED COMPETITIVE BASEBALL IN SEPTEMBER!

Thanks to everyone for participating!

Photo credits:

Skenes from Pirates Twitter.

Reynolds by Hakim Wright Sr AP

Livvy Dunne by Ben Watts/SI

Ohtani by Mary Decicco/MLB Photos via Getty

2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

I've learned long ago that what's important are the people that show up, not those who don't. So while I sent invitations to many people to participate in this 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions post, I'm very excited by the group who responded. Let me introduce you to these amazing participants:

Brian McElhinny - Former operator of the fantastic blog, Raise The Jolly Roger. Still writes about the Pirates at @rtjr.

Amanda Godsey - Steelers and Pitt writer for The Tribune-Democrat. You can also follow her at Twitter at @amandafgodsey.

Josh - Even though I'm currently his chief rival, I really appreciate that Josh is always willing to participate in any of my silly blog post ideas. Josh writes the outstanding blog Josh's World.

Gary Morgan - One of the most prolific Pirates writers/podcasters around, most notably as the co-editor of Steel City Pirates.

Sean - It's me! I write Sean's Ramblings. Thanks for being here.

The Moose: My now 13 year-old son. I really hope he doesn't have a Twitter account!

Jim Rosati - One of people behind the Pirates' blog/podcast/site North Shore Nine.

1. Even though he's not on the opening day roster, there are high expectations for the overall #1 pick in last year's MLB draft, Paul Skenes. What do you expect from Skenes in 2024?

Brian: I expect him to come out strong in the minor leagues, but with short starts as they work to build him up for a professional season, which is much longer than college and will eventually have him pitching every 5 days rather than every 7. I think their care with his innings and workload is going to be his biggest limiting factor - not his ability or readiness from a talent or preparation standpoint. Once he is up, which I'd guess is the early summer, I expect him to be a good - maybe not great - major league starting pitcher right out of the gate, with enormous potential to get even better quickly and get to ace level. Again, the innings are going to be severely limited and that will frustrate people, but it's understandable. 

Amanda: I expect Skenes will be in Pittsburgh sometime this year, maybe in May or June if all goes well. I’m expecting big things from him; he has great stuff and should turn into the Pirates ace. That may not happen by the end of this season, but it’ll be exciting to see what he can do in the majors.

Josh:  I am going to be totally optimistic here and say he has 10-12 wins after finally being called up. Finishes top 3 in ROY.

Gary: I expect Paul to get on schedule, stretch out and be a regular contributor by mid season to the big club. Caveat is I think they'll limit his innings to 160 or so.

Sean: 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings. He's going to have the exact same numbers as Spencer Strider in 2022 (and also finish 2nd in the rookie of the year).

The Moose: I think Skenes will have an amazing season. He will have a 3.25 ERA and a lot of strikeouts.

Jim: I think he will spend at least a month in the minors, but I think there is a very real chance he is up before mid-June. Like any rookie, he will probably go through some bumps, but the stuff is so good that even with those bumps, he should very much be an above average starting pitcher in his first taste of the big leagues. I'm going to guess he makes about 15 starts and has an ERA hovering around 4.00 and that we will see a whole lot of heat and positive signs for the future. 

2. After missing nearly all of 2023 with a fractured ankle, Oneil Cruz is back! What do you think his stat line (home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, anything else) will be for this year?

Brian: Man. I want to go high on all these, I absolutely love watching this dude and think the sky is the limit - there's just that Pirate fan part of the brain that tells you to pump the brakes and is always fearing the worst, which we basically experienced with his injury. I will go 35 HR, 25 SB, 90 RBI. 

The biggest thing I am watching is how often he can get on base (.300-ish career so far, want to see that up 20+ points) and how often he can avoid striking out (get below 1 per game). You know he will hit the ball hard.

Amanda: 30 HRs, 90-100 RBIs, 25 stolen bases.

Josh: 24 HR/66 RBIs/20 SBs/.252 AVG

Gary: He's got the capability to have a 40/40 type season. Offensively I think he'll produce, what I'm interested in is can he hang at SS?

Sean: Oneil is going to be a 25/25 hitter. I'm really hoping for at least a .333 on-base percentage.

The Moose: Cruz will have an amazing year. Cruz will hit 30 home runs, 98 RBIs, 35 stolen bases, and he will win comeback player of the year.

Jim: I am so happy he's back. Stat line, 28 homers, 85 RBI, 24 SB, and inconsistent but decent enough SS play. 

3. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs this season?

Brian: Cruz

Amanda: I’m expecting it to be Cruz, though Jack Suwinski also has a shot. If Suwinski can have shorter slumps this season compared to last, he should easily hit 30 homers.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds with 27

Gary: Cruz

Sean: Suwinski is going to hit 30+ home runs this season.

The Moose: I think there is going to be a tie. I think Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz will both hit 30 home runs.

Jim: Jack Suwinski

4. Skenes' girlfriend is social media star and LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne. When do you think Dunne will make her first visit to PNC Park for a Pirates game?

Brian: His first start at home - it will have a big time event feel. 

Amanda: I’m betting she’ll be there when he makes his MLB debut.

Josh: May 24th for Skenes debut against the Braves.

Gary: Don't care, didn't care, won't care.

Sean: I'm way too excited for the Livvy Dunne-Paul Skenes media coverage. It will be a step below Taylor-Travis but with more food (see the couple at Primantis or eating Smiley Cookies). Livvy will be at the May 21st Pirates game against San Francisco for Skenes major league debut.

The Moose: This is going to be a surprise to some people but I think that Livvy Dunne will come to the Pirates first home game of the season.

Jim: Livvy will be in attendance for Paul's first start at PNC Park. Let's call it May 24th vs Atlanta for Fireworks night. Let's show her what Zambelli's is all about.

5. Will former Milwaukee Brewer Rowdy Tellez be more successful on the Pirates than former Milwaukee Brewer Daniel Vogelbach?

Brian: He might stick around longer, but I have sort of a bad feeling about Tellez. Yes, there is some upside with the bat and there's a world where he regains past form and hits 30+ HRs, but there's also a world where he is the face of an underwhelming offseason. I am concerned about his defense at first as well and the impact that could have. 

Amanda: I’m hopeful he will. His stats from last year don’t look great, but Tellez had a couple injuries midseason last year that almost certainly affected his production and power at the plate. If he can stay healthy and hit around 20 homers, the signing will be a win for the Pirates. 

Josh: Tellez because I want to be optimistic.

Gary: If he's healthy he'll run into 20, so yeah probably. Plus he plays the field (albeit not well) it's more than just a DH does.

Sean: Yes! Vogelbach had a 0.6 WAR (wins above replacement) with the Pirates. Have to think Rowdy will do better (like 0.8) and maybe even get a stolen base.

The Moose: Rowdy tellez will be more successful because he was a big part of the Brewers last year to help the team make the playoffs. Rowdy Tellez was a ok hitter last year and he was better defensively then Vogelbach. Rowdy Tellez had a better batting average than Vogelbach.

Jim: No.

6. Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Brian: Soft buyers, or maybe neither. I think they'll be at least close to contention and there will be some pressure to make more of a push with more young talent arriving. Can't see a big splashy move though, just filling holes type stuff.

Amanda: I’m going to be optimistic and say they’ll be buyers.

Josh: Both. They will be borderline playoff contenders, trade away someone like Tellez, but also go out and bring in someone to fill a need. 

Gary: Hopefully both. I can see them both needing to move vets and needing to bring in others at different positions.

Sean: Buyers. They're going to acquire some extra starting and relief pitchers. Maybe Jose Quintana if the Mets do poorly again?

The Moose: The Pirates will be buyers because last year the Pirates started off 20-9 and the best team in the MLB if they keep consistently winning like that without key players getting hurt they would like to buy more players to push for the playoffs and have a good season. (Sean's note: I may need to talk to his English teacher about grammar and punctuation.)

Jim: Can I say both? I could see them doing sorta what they did in the early 2010's where they maybe sell off a reliever (Chapman), but add some pieces elsewhere.  

7. The answer to this probably has a lot to do with your answer to the previous question. What is your prediction of the Pirates overall record and what place will they finish in the NL central?

Brian: The spring optimism is starting to get to me, I am really tempted to go into .500+ territory, which would be right in the wild card mix, and I do think that is possible but the major league pitching they are entering the season with just isn't good enough for me to quite get there. 80-82, 3rd place. 

Amanda: 84-78 and second in the NL Central.

Josh: 79-83. I think they finish in 3rd place in the central

Gary: 84 wins, 2nd place in the NL Central.

Sean: I'm optimistic. Since I already saw Amanda and Gary go with 84, I'll predict 83-79. 3rd place in the central

The Moose: This will be a shocker to some people but the Pirates will go 90-72 and the Pirates will finish second in the division behind the amazing Cubs.

Jim: 85-77, Pirates win the NL Central

Thanks to everyone for participating! We'll have to see how we did in October. Please feel free to share your predictions in the comment section below.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-USA Today (Skenes), Pittsburgh Pirates (Cruz), Livvy Dunne's Instagram account (Dunne), Pittsburgh Pirates Instagram account (Tellez)