Thursday, March 29, 2012

Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions & Props

(For those of you that generally read my blog through Google Reader or another feed, I'm sorry that you saw an "odd" post with only the odds earlier today. That's what happens when you try to write a blog post immediately after arriving home from a Van Halen/Kool & The Gang concert - more on this later.)

With the 2012 baseball season only days away (not including the Seattle-Oakland games in Japan), I need to start working on a draft plan for my fantasy baseball league. I also decided that now is the time to make predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates season. While the odds for the Pirates winning the National League Central division (30/1), NL Pennant (40/1) and World Series (100/1) are fairly poor, I thought it would be fun to explore the prop bets for the team and individual players and share my predictions.

1. Over/under wins: 72.5

I'll go over. It's March, so of course I'm optimistic now.

2. Andrew McCutchen batting average in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under .280

I'll go over on this one too. I think McCutchen will have an amazing season.

3. Andrew McCutchen - Total HR's in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 25.5

While I do think McCutchen will have an amazing season, I think 20-25 home runs is realistic.

4. Andrew McCutchen - Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 25.5

Over.

5. Neil Walker - BA in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under .275

I'll go under on this one. No real reason why.

6. Pedro Alvarez - Total HR's in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 17.5

The big money deserves to go on the under, but I'm one of the few remaining Pedro supporters. I'll go over.

7. Garrett Jones - Total HR's in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 15.5

I'll go under only because I'm banking on Pedro playing well meaning less playing time for Jones with McGahee getting significant at-bats at 1st.

8. Jose Tabata - BA in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under .280

Over. I think Tabata will hit around .300.

9. Joel Hanrahan - Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 35.5

Under. There will be fewer save opportunities for Hanrahan since the Pirates will constantly win games 10-2!

10. Erik Bedard - Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season: Over/Under 8

Over. I predict more wins for Bedard in 2012 than Correia in 2011.

Shockingly, there were no prop bets for Clint Barmes. I also propose my own prop bets.

11. Josh Harrison walks: Over/Under 9

This is the toughest prop on the board! I'll predict under, but barely.

12. Team bunting attempts: Over/Under 1000

Over, but I'm not going to actually count this during the season.

Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments section below, and we'll revisit this in October. The first 10 props are courtesy of Bovada, an online gambling website (as opposed to an offline gambling website).

3 comments:

Matt Shoemaker said...

1. Under. I'd love to be optimistic but I don't think they're much better than last year.
2. Over. I think he'll be more consistent with BA this year.
3. Under. Thinking the number will float around 20.
4. Over. Too fast not to utilize it.
5. Over. I'm a Neil Walker fanboy. That's my only reasoning.
6. Over. Please, please be over.
7. Over. Because realistically I think the answer to the previous one is under.
8. Over
9. Over. Expecting most of their wins to be close.
10. Over. Obviously depending on him actually being healthy.
11. Under. Josh Harrison doesn't know what a walk is.
12. Over. In one game.

Josh Croyle said...

1. Over, I predicted 77-85
2. Over
3. Under, just shy at like 23
4. Over
5. Under
6. Under
7. Over
8. Over
9. Under
10. Under
11. Under, 0 in 400 ABs, sets a record
12. Is that for bunts in the first game?

@BigBurgher said...

1. OVER 72.5 wins - Really struggled with this one, but more than anything I cannot allow myself to go negative on this season before it even starts.

2. OVER McCutchen's BA at .280 - I will say he flirts with .300 for most of the year and winds up at .290 or so.

3. UNDER McCutchen's HR Total: 25.5 - I don't think he's going for power as much as runs & total bases (extra base hits, steals & walks) this year.

4. OVER McCutchen's SB Total: 25.5 - Stealing bases is one of Clint Hurdle's favorite means of adding runs and I think 'Cutch has finally gets to a point where he's comfortable stealing in most favorable situations.

5. OVER Neil Walker's BA .275 - I just think this year's team will post slightly better offensive numbers and Walker will join in (and benefit).

6. UNDER Pedro Alvarez's HR Total - At this point, I'd be happy with him putting double digit HRs on the board.

7. OVER Garrett Jones's HR Total - Has had an oppurtunity to work hard out of the spotlight or collective ire as a result of Pedro's struggles. Think he benefits and threatens to earn every day status.

8. UNDER Jose Tabata's BA at .280 - Tabata is the second most concerning offensive player in my opinion. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear he'll fight both injury and holding his starting job in RF to Jones or McClouth.

9. UNDER Joel Hanrahan's Save Total - I assume this will be for the Pirates only? He's definitely trade deadline movable (especially if Meek delivers) if The Buccos are out of contention...and 35 saves is a HIGH number.

10. OVER Erik Bedard's Win Total at 8 - Of all of these I'd put my actual $ on this one. He seems solid this spring and unless he goes down to serious injuries, he'll have the opportunity to post 10+

11. OVER Josh Harrison Walk Total at 9 - This won't be close unless he gets demoted down to Indy. Harrison has obviously made pitch recognition a priority and it appears to be making a difference. Sure, it's Bradenton, but if he stays with the club, he'll beat that total by August.

12. PUSH Team bunting attempts at 1,000