2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions Recap

We're about a week into 2026 and a few days after the thrilling Steelers-Ravens game, so now is the perfect time to, um, see how everyone did with their 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions! Yes, the baseball season has been over for 2+ months and the Pirates season ended 3+ months ago, but one of the questions below centered around 2025 in its entirety, so that's why you're getting this now. While I'll give a summary of the questions and results, this is the season predictions post from last March.

1. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

So Skenes is awesome. On the surface, Skenes' 10-10 record seems to show like he had an average year. In reality, Skenes was the best pitcher in the National League and won the Cy Young award thanks to an ERA of 1.97, a WHIP (walks and hits divided by innings pitched) of 0.95, and 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings. That's the best ERA in baseball, best WHIP in the National League, and tied for second in the NL in strikeouts. Just dominant. 

Pretty much everyone thought he would be great though some believed he would be better than others. Nubyjas, Noah, and Andrew predicted he would be a Cy Young candidate, and James wrote that it would be disappointing if he didn't win the award. Jim R. predicted 2nd in the Cy Young voting and maybe he would have been if there was one Cy Young award for all of baseball, though my rant on this is best suited for another time.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs?

The answer was Oneil Cruz with just 20. Ethan, Noah, Jim R., and 1992 were all correct though went higher on the overall number. Saxboy just wrote Oneil.

3. Will Derek Shelton get fired and when?

James predicted that Shelton would get let go in September, and Josh thought during the season. Jim R. simply wrote fired. Shelton actually got fired on May 8, 2025.

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Yes, I waited to publish this post just to see if Skenes would propose to Dunne before midnight on December 31st. He did not. Instead, Skenes shaved his mustache! 

Ethan, Noah, and Jim R., and Saxboy all predicted no. 

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

The answer was probably Isaac Mattson. He was drafted out of Pitt in the 19th round of the 2017 draft by the Angels and reached the majors in 2021 pitching all of 4 games for the Orioles. Mattson then pitched in 3 games for the Pirates in 2024. So coming into 2025 with 9 & 2/3 major league innings pitched, there were no expectations for Mattson. He ended up solidifying the bullpen, particularly after David Bednar got traded, with a 2.45 ERA in 47.2 innings pitched. 

Other nominees: Dennis Santana (picked by Saxboy!) Jared Triolo (his September was amazing), and Braxton Ashcraft. Jim L. gets a partial credit for predicting Spencer Horowitz who had a solid season.

Ethan and 1992 both predicted someone from the bullpen, but picked Kyle Nicolas. who regressed some this year with a 4.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 38 innings. (Noah picked Nicolas too.)

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves not make the playoffs?

So the Mets and Braves failed to reach the postseason. The Dodgers won a thrilling World Series. 

Nubyjas thought a difficult NL East would be problematic for the Braves or Mets. James, Ethan, Jim L., and 1992 all thought the Mets would miss the postseason. Josh and Andrew predicted that the Braves would miss the playoffs. Only Jim R. and Saxboy were wrong in thinking that all three teams would reach the playoffs.

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates?

Well, the Pirates finished with a disappointing 71-91 record and last in the NL Central. No one thought they would be THIS bad. Josh was closest in predicting a 74-88 record.

So now we're not that far away from spring training. By acquiring Brandon Lowe and signing Ryan O'Hearn, there is some optimism heading into the season, but that's for a future post. The next prediction might be if I do one of these posts again for 2026!

Thanks to everyone for participating!

2025-2026 Pittsburgh Sports Predictions

For years, I've asked people to share predictions about teams and even elections. For example, before the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates season, I asked for predictions about the overall record of the team, the status of the team's manager (I hope that you're doing well, Derek Shelton!), and who would lead the team in home runs. This is a little different. Today, I asked people for predictions for multiple Pittsburgh-area teams in multiple sports for over a one-year period.

Here are our fabulous participants in these festivities:

Josh: Author of Josh’s World and the reason why I included Penn State questions here. (Bluesky)

Chris Carter: Steelers Reporter and host of North Shore Drive Podcast for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Host of Locked On Steelers too and regular on WPXI. Chris is everywhere and can always be found when there’s a score of 13-9. (Bluesky)

Matt Gajtka: Broadcaster and fitness coach among his multiple roles. (Twitter)

Chris Dokish: Covered Pitt for many years and may know the program better than anyone. (Twitter)

Saxboy: World-traveler, creator of amazing videos, and host of The Saxcast podcast. (Bluesky)

Sean: Founder of Sean’s Ramblings in 2005. Been doing this way too long! (Bluesky)

2025-2026 Steelers

Josh: 10-7. They miss the playoffs

Chris: 11-6, 2nd place AFC North, lose AFC championship game

Matt: 11-6 and they win a Wild Card playoff game, before falling in the Divisional round. I think Rodgers has one last solid season and Pittsburgh will be the beneficiary of it. They are not Super Bowl caliber, but we can finally stop talking about the playoff win drought. 

Chris D.: The defense should be excellent, and if it's not there's going to be a lot of explaining that they'll need to do. The offense, with Aaron Rodgers, should at least be average, which should improve them to 11-6, and maybe finally a first round win. Also, I think Payton Wilson is going to become a star this season.

Saxboy: 9–8, miss playoffs mid draft pick, rinse and repeat. 

Sean: Makes the playoff and win a first-round game.

2025-2026 Penguins

Josh: Yikes, I have not followed the off-season at all. I will say 44 wins, with a first round playoff win

Chris: Miss playoffs again

Matt: 87 points and a couple of wins out of the playoffs. This isn't truly a 'tanking' roster and Malkin gives it an extra boost with a final-season push. But, there's not enough here to put them in the top half of the NHL. At least one more year with the also-rans.

Chris D.: It's hard to say what's in store for them at the moment. They're finally starting to ramp up their rebuild, and if they do that by trading some of their better veterans, then they'll almost definitely have a worse season than this past year. As the roster looks now, they're not really bad, but they may get to that point if they make those trades.

Saxboy: Tank season successfully executed, high draft pick, draft 18 year old kid from Ontario

Sean: Finishes about 10 points out of the playoffs. Team trades Erik Karlsson during the season and Letang and/or Malkin retire after the season.

2025 Pitt Football

Josh: 6-6. Then a loss in a bowl game

Chris: 8-4 regular season, decent bowl game

Matt: 8-4 and they beat West Virginia as part of a 3-0 start. After that ...

Chris D.: They have two All-Americans in Desmond Reid and Kyle Louis, a returning offensive coordinator, the returning starting quarterback in Eli Holstein, who looked like an All-American at the beginning of the season, skill players that now fit the system, a veteran offensive line, and a potentially excellent defense. They flopped the last two seasons, but on paper, they should be a 9-win top 25 team. But it's hard to give them the benefit of the doubt because of how the last two seasons went. I don't predict records including a bowl because those are total crapshoots now, so I'll say an 8-4 regular season record. Anything less is a failure, and I'm not sure with all that they have that 8-4 wouldn't even be a little disappointing. The only other teams that have two All-Americans are elite programs. Like it usually works with Pitt, and especially Narduzzi, it will come down to how well the quarterback does.

Saxboy: 9-3, would love that. Holstein is gonna do his thing.

Sean: 8-4 and a bowl win at either the Go Bowling Military Bowl in DC or the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando.

2025 Penn State Football

Josh: 12-0, National Champs!

Chris: 10-2, College Football Playoffs make Final Four

Matt: One-loss national champions. Don't know much about college football, so why not.

Chris D.: On paper, there may not be a more talented team in the country, but James Franklin has a way of being out coached. Until he shows that he can coach better than his opponents, I have to assume that he'll come up short again.

Saxboy: 11-1, lose Natty 

Sean: Loses to Ohio State in conference play and then in the quarterfinals of the playoffs. Makes Josh sad.

2025 Pitt Men’s Soccer

Josh: Ummm, they win the ACC

Chris: sweet 16

Matt: A trip to the NCAA tournament again, and a berth in the national quarterfinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Makes the NCAA tournament but loses in the second round.

2025 Pitt Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Final Four

Chris: National championship loss

Matt: Another tourney trip, but this time they fall out before the final four.

Chris D.: The best program at Pitt over the last few years, but until they win a championship, they're going to be looked at always coming up short when it counts the most. That sounds harsh, but that's what comes with being No. 1 for most of the year, and also having the best player in the country in Olivia Babcock. Pitt needs a national championship again, and hopefully this is finally the year.

Sean: Not as good as last year. Loses in the national quarterfinals.

2025 Penn State Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Back-to-back National Champs!

Chris: Final Four loss

Matt: Another big year, even if it ends in the national semifinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Trip to the championship, but not back-to-back titles.

2025-2026 Pitt Men’s Basketball

Josh: Slightly better than Penn State men's basketball

Chris: Bubble team just miss NCAA Tournament with 21 or so wins.

Matt: Let's call it a winning season, but a .500 season in the ACC and not enough to make the tourney.

Chris D.: Jeff Capel is very good at accumulating talent (from high school, the portal, and internationally), but I don't think he's a good enough coach for his team to be better than their talent. And the talent this year is not among the best in the ACC. I don't think they'll be bad, but I don't see a tournament run either. I would guess that they'll have somewhere around 16-18 wins. On the other hand, nobody thought a team of Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, Blake Hinson, and Greg Elliott would make the tournament a year after the Panthers were 11-21. Probable starters Damarco Minor, Dishon Jackson, and Cam Corhen are solid, but not game changers, so if the team performs better than expected, they'll have to have big seasons from at least three of Beebah Cummings, Omari Witherspoon, Roman Siulepa, and Barry Dunning, Jr., but that may be asking a lot.

Saxboy: NCAA tournament berth by play in game. L in that

Sean: For no reason other than being a homer, the team makes the NCAA tournament and advances to the round of 32.

2026 Pirates

Josh: 74 wins

Chris: Losing record, no playoffs

Matt: 82-80. I figure they almost have to be better. It'll be another banner year for Skenes and we start to see some supplementation from the farm. I have a hard time saying they'll be legit playoff contenders, though, even in an era of three wild cards per league.

Chris D.: Not to be dramatic, but I honestly see no hope as long as Bob Nutting is the owner. They are both cheap and incompetent, and that's a deadly combination. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and the top prospect in the minors- one a superstar, and one on the verge of being a superstar- and there still feels like there's no hope because Nutting simply doesn't care if they win or not. He just wants the money.

Saxboy: I can’t

Sean: The team finally either trades for a good hitter or signs a free agent hitter under 32 and the team finishes over .500 and competes for a Wild Card spot.

Will any 2025-2026 Robert Morris or Duquesne men’s or women’s basketball team make the NCAA tournament?

Josh: Yes

Chris: No on RMU/Duquesne

Matt: I'll go ahead and say the RMU men's hoopsters make the tournament again. They've gotten in a nice groove in the Horizon League. 

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Not this season.

Will any player on any team win an award? (If yes, who and what?)

Josh: Skenes-Cy Young

Chris: Jalen Ramsey DPOY

Matt: Rodgers gets votes for Comeback Player of the Year, and a freshly-engaged Skenes wins the NL Cy Young in '26. Dan Muse gets some support for the Jack Adams.

Chris D.: I think Paul Skenes is pretty much guaranteed to be the National League Cy Young Award winner.

Saxboy: Bad decision of the year award: saxboybilly18 - for going to the Seattle-Kansas City-Minneapolis

Sean: Olivia Babcock wins national player of the year in volleyball. She’s Pittsburgh’s best athlete not named Skenes or Crosby!

Please share any other predictions here (ex. Steelers draft pick, coaches fired, etc.). 

Josh: Steelers trade up to get a QB in the first round. The Pirates do not sign any hitters, aside from their usual reclamation projects

Chris: Steelers pick LaNorris Sellers first round in 2026 NFL Draft

Matt: The Penguins have a few lottery balls in the hopper, but there's no Gavin McKenna lifeline coming their way!

Chris D.: The Steelers are going to get their next starting quarterback in the first round next year, even if they have to trade up to make sure they get the one they want. And it's going to be a very dramatic scene since it will happen in front of a huge throng of Pittsburghers. Don Kelly won't be retained. If Pitt basketball has a poor season, I would not be surprised, if the buyout isn't high, that they get rid of Jeff Capel. But it would take a really bad season and a very low buyout.

Sean: Snoop Dogg, Pat McAfee, and Bret Michaels will all have some role in the NFL draft in Pittsburgh.

Finally, will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged before the end of the 2026 MLB season?

Josh: No, they get engaged at Taylor and Travis' wedding

Chris: No comment on Skenes/Dunne LOL

Seems like Matt answered this question above with a yes!
 
Chris D.: No. He's too busy dominating.
 
Sean: Yes!

Please feel free to give your own predictions in the comments section below, and we'll see how we did at the end of 2026!

Photos by the incredible Dave DiCello, the Pittsburgh Panthers website, Ethan Shulman of The Pitt News, and Roe Ethridge of GQ.

Skenes and Dunne in GQ

While I've written dozens of Celebrities in PittsburghGear posts over the years, this might be the first time that the celebrity is actually a member of a Pittsburgh sports team. GQ published an article and photo shoot of Pirates star Paul Skenes and his more-famous girlfriend Livvy Dunne. And in one picture, Skenes is wearing his own jersey.

I'm also curious what Skenes is eating for (presumably) breakfast in this picture. Is it one type of cereal or two? Does he eat cereal without milk? 

Forget about Wednesday's 4-2 Pirates win where Skenes pitched 7 innings giving up only 1 unearned run and 3 hits with no walks and 6 strikeouts. The Pirates and baseball media really need to ask Skenes about his breakfast eating habits!

Photos by Roe Ethridge

2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Baseball season starts this week, so it's time for my annual Pirates post where I ask a group of people for their season predictions. While I probably write this every year, I think it's true that this year includes the best group of participants since I started doing these posts. So with that, I'm proud to introduce the panelists.

Nubyjas Wilborn – Pirates fans will remember Nubyjas for covering the Pirates for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette a few years ago. He currently covers the Tennessee Titans for SI. (Twitter)

James Santelli – The biggest Pitt women’s volleyball fan you’ll ever meet! (Blue Sky)

Ethan Hullihen – Arguably the best person to follow on Twitter for Pirates payroll and transactions. (Twitter)

Josh Croyle – Author of Josh’s World and always up for participating in any of my silly or not silly predictions posts. (Blue Sky)

Jim Lokay – Pittsburgh born and bred and FOX 5 DC anchor. (Blue Sky)

Noah Hiles – Pirates beat writer for the Post-Gazette. (Twitter)

Jim Rosati – You know him from NorthShore Nine podcast (Twitter)

Saxboy – Puts together incredible Pirate-related (and other) videos. (Twitter)

1986-1992 Pirates – The best place on the internet to find pictures, videos, and more of the 86-92 Pirates. (Blue Sky)

Andrew Moses: Host of the podcast Everybody Pulls the Tarp. He recently had a great interview with former Pirates manager Clint Hurdle. (Twitter)

1. Let's start with the biggest star on the team and one of the biggest in baseball. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

Nubyjas: Paul Skenes is one of those rare athletes that I’d happily pay to watch even if it means filling Bob Nutting’s wallet. 😀 But seriously he’s a special talent who if he stays healthy can be a perennial CY Young candidate. I expect a great season.

James: It appears that anything less than a Cy Young Award and the Pirates' first no-hitter in 28 years (and first solo no-hitter in 49 years) would be a disappointment. Is it fair to actually expect those from Skenes? Why not! I would say the sky's the limit, but his limit may put him out of Earth's orbit.

Ethan: It wouldn’t be fair to expect MORE than what Skenes provided last year. Sure, it’s certainly possible—and maybe even likely—I’m just saying we shouldn’t expect it. With this season being his first full campaign, I can’t imagine the team totally lets the reins off quite yet. Other than that, nothing would really surprise me, but again, just don’t expect it. Young pitching is fleeting.

Josh: Fan expectations are insanely high, everyone seems to think he will go 28-0 with at least ten no-hitters. I do not think he will be quite that good. I am thinking 14-7, 2.97 ERA, finishes top five in Cy Young.

Jim L.: He'll dominate once again -- maybe not ASG starter stuff that early on, but there's no reason to think he'll regress.

Noah: The sky's the limit for Skenes. I think it's reasonable to predict he will be well in the mix for this year's National League Cy Young. I personally think he wins the award after leading baseball in ERA and strikeouts. 

Jim R.: I'm not sure it’s fair to expect to see what he did last year, but I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL this season. Let’s go with something like 15-5 with a 2.55 ERA and he finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting. 

1992: It’s going to be difficult for Skenes to top such an incredible rookie season. But he’s a student of the game and he’s aiming to do just that. In that vein, Skenes has been tinkering with a couple new pitches this spring in an effort to try and induce contact so he can lower his pitch count and thus go deeper into games. I think this approach and adjustment will cause him to take somewhat of a “step back” because the movement on his pitches is just too good. It’s simply hard for hitters to make contact on him. I think he needs to double down on what he does best, go for the strikeout and make batters try and miss his pitches. He’s also going to be without his personal catcher Yasmani Grandal. In 2024, Skenes for the most part allowed more base runners and ran up high pitch counts in his first few innings of starts, but then locked in and became much more efficient as the game progressed. Grandal had a knack of working with Paul to make adjustments during the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Don’t get me wrong, Skenes is still going to have a very good season. I can envision him with an ERA in the low 3’s, 14 wins, and 250 strikeouts in over 30 starts this season.

Andrew: Huge season. 15+ wins, over 1K/IP, flirts with a no-hitter at least 1-2 times. Cy Young candidate.

Saxboy: Continued dominance, and a full season of starts which is so exciting. Kinda feels like Nikola Jokic where he'll be breaking his own records year after year in a super efficient fashion.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs in 2025? (Sean’s Note: My pick of Jack Suwinski in 2024 was so bad that I disqualified myself from participating in this year’s predictions.)

Nubyjas: While he’s not a power hitter I will pick Bryan Reynolds because he at least makes consistent contact. I’d love for O’Neil Cruz or Ke’Bryan Hayes to prove me wrong.

James: I'll call for Bryan Reynolds with the first 30-homer season of his career. Let's get him one before he gets to the sorry end of the age curve.

Ethan: Not much of a choice here—the smart money is either on Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz. I’m going with Cruz, and let’s say somewhere between 25 and 30.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with just 23 HRs.

Jim L.: Bryan Reynolds?

Noah: I will go with Oneil Cruz. If I have to pick a number, I will guess 33. 

Jim R.: Gonna have to go with Cruz. Hoping the move to CF can allow him to just go out there and play ball. 

1992: Obvious answer is Oneil Cruz. He has the most raw power on the club. But I do not believe he is going to go up there swinging for the fences every time like he did the first season-and-a-half of his career. He’s going to be focused more on putting the ball in play, and getting productive outs. He’ll have a higher batting average but that’s going to limit his homers to 28.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Oneil Cruz

3. Will Derek Shelton be fired as the Pirates manager during the season, fired after the season, or be the team's manager in 2026?

Nubyjas: If you would’ve asked me this before the Jared Jones news I would’ve said no because I believe the Pirates pitching would’ve overcame deficiencies in hitting. But. If Jones is out for a significant time period it could get ugly.

James: Unless he can get the Bucs over .500 and in contention when the Steelers are playing games that matter, nope, he's toast. I'll predict he gets the axe in mid-September and Don Kelly takes over.

Ethan: I’m not sure those making the decision are the type that would make such a move during the season, but I don’t think the club is going to be good enough (see below) to be considered to have taken the next step, so let’s say Shelton goes after the season.

Josh: No, I think he is fired before the end of the season.

Jim L.: There's a difference between being the manager of a bad team and the manager of an underperforming team. It's not his fault that Nutting doesn't give him what he needs to win, but it's easier to fire a manager than it is to admit fault (or sell the team.) So, I think he's safe this year. Next year? That's anyone's guess.

Noah: I don't think Derek Shelton will be fired this season, but I also don't think he will be the manager next year. 

Jim R.: Fired.

1992: I like Derek Shelton the person but don’t believe he is the right manager to lead them to the playoffs. I just believe after 5 years of losing the team needs a different voice. That said, this is an organization that is painfully slow to make changes. Only a complete dumpster fire would cost people jobs (see 2019 season with embarrassing arrests and clubhouse fights). I believe the club will show enough improvement that Derek will keep his job and be back in 2026.

Andrew: Manager in 2026. This is a step forward year for the Pirates.

Saxboy: Shelton saw me at spring training, laughed and said "You're the guy who rides the bike!!!" so he should be given a lifetime contract. In all honesty I have no idea, I tend to lean more on the thought that the baseball manager has less to do with the teams performance than people think. But much smarter people than me tell me otherwise... I JUST WANT TO WIN GAMES!!! 

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Nubyjas: Sure. Why not?

James: Yes, aboard the Gateway Clipper Fleet. But not on the Princess or the Duchess. Oh, no. It's gotta be the Empress.

Ethan: I really couldn’t care less about social media “stardom”, so I’ll just say I hope those kids are happy. And if I had to bet…I’m going with no.

Josh: Yes

Jim L.: I don't care.

Noah: No idea. Probably not. 

Jim R.: No

1992: Yes, my guess is it will happen after the season concludes, around the holidays in 2025 before the new year. 

Andrew: 2025 offseason.

Saxboy: They're wayyyyyy too young. Don't get married until you're at least 30!

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

Nubyjas: Ji Hawn Bae if for no other reason than it’s time for him to show and prove or move on.

James: Call me naïve, but I'm still a believer in Henry Davis. There's something in the bat that I can't shake. And when Endy or Bart gets hurt, because a catcher always gets hurt, I think Davis will seize the moment and put some punch into the lineup this summer.

Ethan: This really isn’t my kind of thing, like at all, so I’m not sure my answer matters. I would be willing to bet Oneil Cruz would be the popular pick, so I’ll try and come up with someone different. I’ll say that Kyle Nicolas comes up after some bullpen glut gets sorted through, finds some control, and becomes a big contributor to the bullpen.

Josh: Bubba Chandler...I think he comes up early and has a solid year, perhaps finishing in the top 3 for ROY

Jim L.: I'm pulling for Spencer Horowitz.

Noah: I will go with Kyle Nicolas. I expect him to have a really good year out of the bullpen. 

Jim R.: I hope there’s a few, but let’s go with Nick Yorke. 

1992: Someone from the bullpen. Let’s go with Kyle Nicolas. People have been raving about his stuff for a long time, and he is good friends with Skenes and Jones. I think their mentality and preparation will rub off on him, and I could see Kyle emerging to be a solid 8th inning guy on a team that desperately needs a lockdown bullpen after last year’s disasters.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Dennis Santana becomes closer, can also report that dude is the man!

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves NOT make the playoffs?

Nubyjas: Too much would have to go wrong for the Dodgers to miss the playoffs. Hell, they were without Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts yet had no problem smoking the Cubs in Japan. If anything the NL East gauntlet could eliminate either the Braves or Mets because the Phils are a good team and the Marlins can catch you slipping.

James: Hmm let's go with the Mets missing out. If one of Lindor or Soto gets hurt or has a protracted slump, things could really get interesting -- especially since the Braves are a more complete team in that division.

Ethan: Injuries are already creeping up on both the Mets and Braves already, but in the end, I’d say it’s more likely than not all three make it. However, I’d say the Mets have the worst chance.

Josh: Yes, the Braves miss out this year

Jim L.: MLB is broken. They all SHOULD because they spend the money, but somehow, I think the Mets revert to their old ways and vastly underperform this year and miss the postseason.

Noah: The Mets will miss the playoffs. Not enough pitching. 

Jim R.: No

1992: The NL East is loaded. The NL West is loaded. Outside the division winners, your wild cards will come from those 2 divisions. I could see the Mets missing the playoffs, and the other wild card going to Arizona who just missed out last year.

Andrew: Braves won't

Saxboy: They're all in!

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates? (Record, finish in the NL Central, etc.)

Nubyjas: My prediction is pain. It’s hard to see this team finishing higher than third in the Central which is a shame considering how weak the division seems to be this season. Pirates will finish sub .500 again.

James: 77-84 (Some game against the Nationals or the Reds late in the season gets rained out with no re-scheduling), which still winds up being good enough for 3rd place in the NL Central. Maybe I'm just pessimistic because I'm making predictions right after word that Jared Jones is having elbow trouble -- but that news only illustrates how many things must go right, and how little can go wrong, for the 2025 Pirates to be a playoff contender. I'll note that I was two wins on the optimistic side last year with a 78-84 prediction.

Ethan: As anyone reading this hopefully knows, I’m really not one for bloviating or prognosticating, so thanks for bearing with me (I couldn’t even get one numbers question?!). Personally, I don’t think the team is going to be very good—they weren’t very good last year, and didn’t do a ton to get much better. Internal improvement is their only hope, and the list of “if such and such goes right, they may have a chance” can only get so long before there actually isn’t one. Ultimately, I’m not sure they finish above .500, so let’s go with 80-82.

Josh: 74-88...4th place.

Jim L.: 4th place. 78-84. If they open strong as they've done in the past, it'll be short-lived. If they start off sluggish, they'll only turn it around enough to skirt .500. I'm sorry, I want this team to win but I'm just numb to the lack of commitment by the ownership.

Noah: I think the Pirates will finish 82-80. They will remain in wild card contention until the final weeks of September, but ultimately run out of gas down the final stretch. 

Jim R.: 76-86, 4th place 

1992: I think the team will show enough improvement to keep management’s jobs safe but will fall short of the playoffs and .500. They’ll be in “contention” for that last Wild card spot in September but fade down the stretch. My prediction is 4th place, 80-82.

Andrew: 83 wins, 3rd in NL Central

Saxboy: I need to stay optimistic, we are due for at least ONE offensive break out. Give me 82-80 and sniffing around the final wild card. I NEED COMPETITIVE BASEBALL IN SEPTEMBER!

Thanks to everyone for participating!

Photo credits:

Skenes from Pirates Twitter.

Reynolds by Hakim Wright Sr AP

Livvy Dunne by Ben Watts/SI

Ohtani by Mary Decicco/MLB Photos via Getty

Pirates Predictions Review

Now that we're through Thanksgiving, it's the perfect time to, um, revisit Pittsburgh Pirates predictions made back before the season started. While the full post is here, let's see how we did.

1. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this year?

Skenes exceeded all expectations. He finished the season with a record of 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts in 133 innings pitched. Skenes won the National League rookie of the year, finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and started the All-Star game. Josh predicted Skenes would have 10-12 wins and finish top 3 in rookie of the year. Point for Josh! 

2. What do you think Oneil Cruz's state line will be for 2024?

Cruz had an uneven year. 21 home runs, 76 RBIs, .259 batting average, and 22 stolen bases. He also had 181 strikeouts and moved from shortstop to center field. Overall, a positive step forward, and Pirates fans hope that he builds off this season and becomes more comfortable as an outfielder for 2025. Josh was the closest again predicting 24 HR / 66 RBIs / 20 SBs / .252 average.

3. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs?

The answer was Bryan Reynolds with 24. Is this turning into Josh's Ramblings? He is the only one who predicted Reynolds. Jim, The Moose, and I all made the terrible call of Jack Suwinski. We chose poorly.

4. When will Livvy Dunne make her debut at PNC Park?

The answer was May 11th for Skenes' first start. While I hoped that people would give an actual date, the question was somewhat vague, so Brian and Amanda both said she would be there for Skenes' debut. Technically, they were right. Points for them.

5. Will Rowdy Tellez be more successful as a Pirate than Daniel Vogelbach?

If we answered this question on June 1st, this would be a definite no. Turns out he was pretty good the last few months of the season before being unceremoniously released during the last week of the season. His overall stat line was 13 home runs, 56 RBIs, a .299 OBP, 1 stolen base, and a -0.4 WAR. He also made three pitching appearances. In 2022 with the Pirates, Vogelbach had 12 home runs, 34 RBIs, a .338 OBP, and a 0.6 WAR. As fun as Rowdy was over the summer, I think the answer is no. Jim predicted no and Brian leaned that way. Points for them.

6. Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Overall, the Pirates were buyers getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Bryan De La Cruz, and reliever Jalen Beeks but the team also traded Martin Perez to the Padres. Brian, Gary, Josh, and Jim all get credit for their answers.

7. Overall Pirates record and place in the division

The Pirates finished 76-86 with the exact same record as 2023. However, the team finished last in the NL Central. No one thought the Pirates would finish below 3rd place in the division. We were also an optimistic group. Josh's prediction of 79-83 was the closest.

Congrats on Josh on doing the best in predicting. Let's try this again in 2025. 

Photo of Skenes by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images. Photo of Dunne by Charles LeClaire-USA Today. Charles is making the rounds!

2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

I've learned long ago that what's important are the people that show up, not those who don't. So while I sent invitations to many people to participate in this 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions post, I'm very excited by the group who responded. Let me introduce you to these amazing participants:

Brian McElhinny - Former operator of the fantastic blog, Raise The Jolly Roger. Still writes about the Pirates at @rtjr.

Amanda Godsey - Steelers and Pitt writer for The Tribune-Democrat. You can also follow her at Twitter at @amandafgodsey.

Josh - Even though I'm currently his chief rival, I really appreciate that Josh is always willing to participate in any of my silly blog post ideas. Josh writes the outstanding blog Josh's World.

Gary Morgan - One of the most prolific Pirates writers/podcasters around, most notably as the co-editor of Steel City Pirates.

Sean - It's me! I write Sean's Ramblings. Thanks for being here.

The Moose: My now 13 year-old son. I really hope he doesn't have a Twitter account!

Jim Rosati - One of people behind the Pirates' blog/podcast/site North Shore Nine.

1. Even though he's not on the opening day roster, there are high expectations for the overall #1 pick in last year's MLB draft, Paul Skenes. What do you expect from Skenes in 2024?

Brian: I expect him to come out strong in the minor leagues, but with short starts as they work to build him up for a professional season, which is much longer than college and will eventually have him pitching every 5 days rather than every 7. I think their care with his innings and workload is going to be his biggest limiting factor - not his ability or readiness from a talent or preparation standpoint. Once he is up, which I'd guess is the early summer, I expect him to be a good - maybe not great - major league starting pitcher right out of the gate, with enormous potential to get even better quickly and get to ace level. Again, the innings are going to be severely limited and that will frustrate people, but it's understandable. 

Amanda: I expect Skenes will be in Pittsburgh sometime this year, maybe in May or June if all goes well. I’m expecting big things from him; he has great stuff and should turn into the Pirates ace. That may not happen by the end of this season, but it’ll be exciting to see what he can do in the majors.

Josh:  I am going to be totally optimistic here and say he has 10-12 wins after finally being called up. Finishes top 3 in ROY.

Gary: I expect Paul to get on schedule, stretch out and be a regular contributor by mid season to the big club. Caveat is I think they'll limit his innings to 160 or so.

Sean: 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings. He's going to have the exact same numbers as Spencer Strider in 2022 (and also finish 2nd in the rookie of the year).

The Moose: I think Skenes will have an amazing season. He will have a 3.25 ERA and a lot of strikeouts.

Jim: I think he will spend at least a month in the minors, but I think there is a very real chance he is up before mid-June. Like any rookie, he will probably go through some bumps, but the stuff is so good that even with those bumps, he should very much be an above average starting pitcher in his first taste of the big leagues. I'm going to guess he makes about 15 starts and has an ERA hovering around 4.00 and that we will see a whole lot of heat and positive signs for the future. 

2. After missing nearly all of 2023 with a fractured ankle, Oneil Cruz is back! What do you think his stat line (home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, anything else) will be for this year?

Brian: Man. I want to go high on all these, I absolutely love watching this dude and think the sky is the limit - there's just that Pirate fan part of the brain that tells you to pump the brakes and is always fearing the worst, which we basically experienced with his injury. I will go 35 HR, 25 SB, 90 RBI. 

The biggest thing I am watching is how often he can get on base (.300-ish career so far, want to see that up 20+ points) and how often he can avoid striking out (get below 1 per game). You know he will hit the ball hard.

Amanda: 30 HRs, 90-100 RBIs, 25 stolen bases.

Josh: 24 HR/66 RBIs/20 SBs/.252 AVG

Gary: He's got the capability to have a 40/40 type season. Offensively I think he'll produce, what I'm interested in is can he hang at SS?

Sean: Oneil is going to be a 25/25 hitter. I'm really hoping for at least a .333 on-base percentage.

The Moose: Cruz will have an amazing year. Cruz will hit 30 home runs, 98 RBIs, 35 stolen bases, and he will win comeback player of the year.

Jim: I am so happy he's back. Stat line, 28 homers, 85 RBI, 24 SB, and inconsistent but decent enough SS play. 

3. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs this season?

Brian: Cruz

Amanda: I’m expecting it to be Cruz, though Jack Suwinski also has a shot. If Suwinski can have shorter slumps this season compared to last, he should easily hit 30 homers.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds with 27

Gary: Cruz

Sean: Suwinski is going to hit 30+ home runs this season.

The Moose: I think there is going to be a tie. I think Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz will both hit 30 home runs.

Jim: Jack Suwinski

4. Skenes' girlfriend is social media star and LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne. When do you think Dunne will make her first visit to PNC Park for a Pirates game?

Brian: His first start at home - it will have a big time event feel. 

Amanda: I’m betting she’ll be there when he makes his MLB debut.

Josh: May 24th for Skenes debut against the Braves.

Gary: Don't care, didn't care, won't care.

Sean: I'm way too excited for the Livvy Dunne-Paul Skenes media coverage. It will be a step below Taylor-Travis but with more food (see the couple at Primantis or eating Smiley Cookies). Livvy will be at the May 21st Pirates game against San Francisco for Skenes major league debut.

The Moose: This is going to be a surprise to some people but I think that Livvy Dunne will come to the Pirates first home game of the season.

Jim: Livvy will be in attendance for Paul's first start at PNC Park. Let's call it May 24th vs Atlanta for Fireworks night. Let's show her what Zambelli's is all about.

5. Will former Milwaukee Brewer Rowdy Tellez be more successful on the Pirates than former Milwaukee Brewer Daniel Vogelbach?

Brian: He might stick around longer, but I have sort of a bad feeling about Tellez. Yes, there is some upside with the bat and there's a world where he regains past form and hits 30+ HRs, but there's also a world where he is the face of an underwhelming offseason. I am concerned about his defense at first as well and the impact that could have. 

Amanda: I’m hopeful he will. His stats from last year don’t look great, but Tellez had a couple injuries midseason last year that almost certainly affected his production and power at the plate. If he can stay healthy and hit around 20 homers, the signing will be a win for the Pirates. 

Josh: Tellez because I want to be optimistic.

Gary: If he's healthy he'll run into 20, so yeah probably. Plus he plays the field (albeit not well) it's more than just a DH does.

Sean: Yes! Vogelbach had a 0.6 WAR (wins above replacement) with the Pirates. Have to think Rowdy will do better (like 0.8) and maybe even get a stolen base.

The Moose: Rowdy tellez will be more successful because he was a big part of the Brewers last year to help the team make the playoffs. Rowdy Tellez was a ok hitter last year and he was better defensively then Vogelbach. Rowdy Tellez had a better batting average than Vogelbach.

Jim: No.

6. Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Brian: Soft buyers, or maybe neither. I think they'll be at least close to contention and there will be some pressure to make more of a push with more young talent arriving. Can't see a big splashy move though, just filling holes type stuff.

Amanda: I’m going to be optimistic and say they’ll be buyers.

Josh: Both. They will be borderline playoff contenders, trade away someone like Tellez, but also go out and bring in someone to fill a need. 

Gary: Hopefully both. I can see them both needing to move vets and needing to bring in others at different positions.

Sean: Buyers. They're going to acquire some extra starting and relief pitchers. Maybe Jose Quintana if the Mets do poorly again?

The Moose: The Pirates will be buyers because last year the Pirates started off 20-9 and the best team in the MLB if they keep consistently winning like that without key players getting hurt they would like to buy more players to push for the playoffs and have a good season. (Sean's note: I may need to talk to his English teacher about grammar and punctuation.)

Jim: Can I say both? I could see them doing sorta what they did in the early 2010's where they maybe sell off a reliever (Chapman), but add some pieces elsewhere.  

7. The answer to this probably has a lot to do with your answer to the previous question. What is your prediction of the Pirates overall record and what place will they finish in the NL central?

Brian: The spring optimism is starting to get to me, I am really tempted to go into .500+ territory, which would be right in the wild card mix, and I do think that is possible but the major league pitching they are entering the season with just isn't good enough for me to quite get there. 80-82, 3rd place. 

Amanda: 84-78 and second in the NL Central.

Josh: 79-83. I think they finish in 3rd place in the central

Gary: 84 wins, 2nd place in the NL Central.

Sean: I'm optimistic. Since I already saw Amanda and Gary go with 84, I'll predict 83-79. 3rd place in the central

The Moose: This will be a shocker to some people but the Pirates will go 90-72 and the Pirates will finish second in the division behind the amazing Cubs.

Jim: 85-77, Pirates win the NL Central

Thanks to everyone for participating! We'll have to see how we did in October. Please feel free to share your predictions in the comment section below.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-USA Today (Skenes), Pittsburgh Pirates (Cruz), Livvy Dunne's Instagram account (Dunne), Pittsburgh Pirates Instagram account (Tellez)

A Message For Anti-Taylor Swift Pittsburgh Sports Fans

Taylor Swift is arguably the biggest current musician in the world. Travis Kelce is a future Hall-of Famer football player who just won his third Super Bowl in the last five years. Naturally, the relationship between these talented individuals has garnered some attention. Too much attention? Maybe. Is that the fault of Swift and Kelce? Again, maybe. 

 

Surrounding the Super Bowl, I have seen numerous mentions of Taylor Swift from Pittsburgh sports fans critical of the attention she has received, and the amount of screen time she gets during football games. Swift ended up appearing on screen for 55 seconds during the Super Bowl. That's less than the amount of time that Tom Brady appeared on screen during commercials. While that number increased during the post-game celebration, 55 seconds of a 3+ hour telecast is insiginificant. So to those Pittsburgh sports fans mad about Swift, why are you upset? Do you think she takes attention from the game, or do you just want to admit that you don't like her?

Now if a Pittsburgh sports fan says that they hate how the attention on Swift takes away from the game, they clearly forgot about the Cole Tucker-Vanessa Hudgens relationship. Maybe Hudgens didn't get much (or any) screen time during Pirates games, but that had more to do with Tucker only playing 43 games with the team after the relationship started.

 

Maybe Hudgens-Tucker is a bad example. So what about all of the media coverage and camera shots of Evgeni Malkin's parents during the Penguins' Stanley Cup runs? Did you find that distracted you from the games? How dare the cameras cut to Geno's parents celebrating after he scored a big playoff goal! The focus needs to be on the game, right?

 

Let's not act like Pittsburghers are immune from being starstruck. Joshua Axelrod of the Post-Gazette, who I like and enjoy his work, regularly writes about television and movies being filmed in Pittsburgh. My guess is these are some of his most-read pieces. There are countless stories about where Tom Hanks had dinner or what gym Emma Watson visited or Ed Sheeran making pizzas during their time in Pittsburgh.

 

The same people critical of the screen time Taylor Swift receives during football games didn't complain about Jay-Z attending a Pitt-Duke game at The Pete. They don't scream about in-game interviews of Steelers players attending Pirates or Penguins games. How many times did Ben Roethlisberger get on TV during Pens games? Where was the outrage then? What about the many celebrities (such as Wiz Khalifa and Michael Keaton) who throw out the first pitch of a Pirates game and then are shown during the telecast? The Pirates even had a K-Pop superstar throw out the first pitch of a 2015 game. Never seen any complaints about in-game interviews with or television shots of Joe Manganiello or Billy Gardell. I remember people celebrating Sofia Vergara becoming a Steelers fan after she started dating Manganiello. 

Admit it. You're mad about Taylor Swift. Maybe it's her politics or her music or the attention, but it’s about you not liking Swift. Now if you're consistent in your belief that players' significant others, parents, or kids or any other celebrity should never appear on screen during sporting events, feel free to share. Show me receipts as the kids say. (Do kids say this?) And if you don't have any, start now with the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

 

Pitcher Paul Skenes was baseball's #1 draft pick in 2023. If he lives up to his potential, Skenes will be an all-star and one of the best pitchers in the National League. Assuming (and I know it's a big assumption) that the Pirates make the playoffs thanks to great performances by Skenes, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, etc., Skenes' girlfriend Olivia "Livvy" Dunne might appear at playoff games. Although she doesn't sell out stadiums like Swift, Dunne is a big deal. She is a gymnast at LSU, appears in TV commercials and magazine covers, and has nearly 5 million followers on Instagram and more on other social media sites. 

 

If it’s not about Taylor Swift, start posting on social media everyday how you hope that Dunne is never shown during Pirates games. Start telling all your friends that any Pirates loss or Skenes bad start is because Dunne is a distraction. Let’s see the videos about how Dunne was hired by Pirates owner Bob Nutting to help Joe Biden get re-elected (or something). If the Pirates make the playoffs, please complain about how Dunne is attracting more people including young women to become Pirates fans. I’ll be here to read all about it!

* Photo of Taylor and Travis from AFP via Getty Images. Not 100% certain, but I think it was taken by Patrick T. Fallon.

* Photo of Vanessa and Cole from Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty.

* Photo of Olivia and Paul from her Instagram page.