Pirates Predictions Review

Now that we're through Thanksgiving, it's the perfect time to, um, revisit Pittsburgh Pirates predictions made back before the season started. While the full post is here, let's see how we did.

1. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this year?

Skenes exceeded all expectations. He finished the season with a record of 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts in 133 innings pitched. Skenes won the National League rookie of the year, finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and started the All-Star game. Josh predicted Skenes would have 10-12 wins and finish top 3 in rookie of the year. Point for Josh! 

2. What do you think Oneil Cruz's state line will be for 2024?

Cruz had an uneven year. 21 home runs, 76 RBIs, .259 batting average, and 22 stolen bases. He also had 181 strikeouts and moved from shortstop to center field. Overall, a positive step forward, and Pirates fans hope that he builds off this season and becomes more comfortable as an outfielder for 2025. Josh was the closest again predicting 24 HR / 66 RBIs / 20 SBs / .252 average.

3. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs?

The answer was Bryan Reynolds with 24. Is this turning into Josh's Ramblings? He is the only one who predicted Reynolds. Jim, The Moose, and I all made the terrible call of Jack Suwinski. We chose poorly.

4. When will Livvy Dunne make her debut at PNC Park?

The answer was May 11th for Skenes' first start. While I hoped that people would give an actual date, the question was somewhat vague, so Brian and Amanda both said she would be there for Skenes' debut. Technically, they were right. Points for them.

5. Will Rowdy Tellez be more successful as a Pirate than Daniel Vogelbach?

If we answered this question on June 1st, this would be a definite no. Turns out he was pretty good the last few months of the season before being unceremoniously released during the last week of the season. His overall stat line was 13 home runs, 56 RBIs, a .299 OBP, 1 stolen base, and a -0.4 WAR. He also made three pitching appearances. In 2022 with the Pirates, Vogelbach had 12 home runs, 34 RBIs, a .338 OBP, and a 0.6 WAR. As fun as Rowdy was over the summer, I think the answer is no. Jim predicted no and Brian leaned that way. Points for them.

6. Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Overall, the Pirates were buyers getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Bryan De La Cruz, and reliever Jalen Beeks but the team also traded Martin Perez to the Padres. Brian, Gary, Josh, and Jim all get credit for their answers.

7. Overall Pirates record and place in the division

The Pirates finished 76-86 with the exact same record as 2023. However, the team finished last in the NL Central. No one thought the Pirates would finish below 3rd place in the division. We were also an optimistic group. Josh's prediction of 79-83 was the closest.

Congrats on Josh on doing the best in predicting. Let's try this again in 2025. 

Photo of Skenes by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images. Photo of Dunne by Charles LeClaire-USA Today. Charles is making the rounds!

2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

I've learned long ago that what's important are the people that show up, not those who don't. So while I sent invitations to many people to participate in this 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions post, I'm very excited by the group who responded. Let me introduce you to these amazing participants:

Brian McElhinny - Former operator of the fantastic blog, Raise The Jolly Roger. Still writes about the Pirates at @rtjr.

Amanda Godsey - Steelers and Pitt writer for The Tribune-Democrat. You can also follow her at Twitter at @amandafgodsey.

Josh - Even though I'm currently his chief rival, I really appreciate that Josh is always willing to participate in any of my silly blog post ideas. Josh writes the outstanding blog Josh's World.

Gary Morgan - One of the most prolific Pirates writers/podcasters around, most notably as the co-editor of Steel City Pirates.

Sean - It's me! I write Sean's Ramblings. Thanks for being here.

The Moose: My now 13 year-old son. I really hope he doesn't have a Twitter account!

Jim Rosati - One of people behind the Pirates' blog/podcast/site North Shore Nine.

1. Even though he's not on the opening day roster, there are high expectations for the overall #1 pick in last year's MLB draft, Paul Skenes. What do you expect from Skenes in 2024?

Brian: I expect him to come out strong in the minor leagues, but with short starts as they work to build him up for a professional season, which is much longer than college and will eventually have him pitching every 5 days rather than every 7. I think their care with his innings and workload is going to be his biggest limiting factor - not his ability or readiness from a talent or preparation standpoint. Once he is up, which I'd guess is the early summer, I expect him to be a good - maybe not great - major league starting pitcher right out of the gate, with enormous potential to get even better quickly and get to ace level. Again, the innings are going to be severely limited and that will frustrate people, but it's understandable. 

Amanda: I expect Skenes will be in Pittsburgh sometime this year, maybe in May or June if all goes well. I’m expecting big things from him; he has great stuff and should turn into the Pirates ace. That may not happen by the end of this season, but it’ll be exciting to see what he can do in the majors.

Josh:  I am going to be totally optimistic here and say he has 10-12 wins after finally being called up. Finishes top 3 in ROY.

Gary: I expect Paul to get on schedule, stretch out and be a regular contributor by mid season to the big club. Caveat is I think they'll limit his innings to 160 or so.

Sean: 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings. He's going to have the exact same numbers as Spencer Strider in 2022 (and also finish 2nd in the rookie of the year).

The Moose: I think Skenes will have an amazing season. He will have a 3.25 ERA and a lot of strikeouts.

Jim: I think he will spend at least a month in the minors, but I think there is a very real chance he is up before mid-June. Like any rookie, he will probably go through some bumps, but the stuff is so good that even with those bumps, he should very much be an above average starting pitcher in his first taste of the big leagues. I'm going to guess he makes about 15 starts and has an ERA hovering around 4.00 and that we will see a whole lot of heat and positive signs for the future. 

2. After missing nearly all of 2023 with a fractured ankle, Oneil Cruz is back! What do you think his stat line (home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, anything else) will be for this year?

Brian: Man. I want to go high on all these, I absolutely love watching this dude and think the sky is the limit - there's just that Pirate fan part of the brain that tells you to pump the brakes and is always fearing the worst, which we basically experienced with his injury. I will go 35 HR, 25 SB, 90 RBI. 

The biggest thing I am watching is how often he can get on base (.300-ish career so far, want to see that up 20+ points) and how often he can avoid striking out (get below 1 per game). You know he will hit the ball hard.

Amanda: 30 HRs, 90-100 RBIs, 25 stolen bases.

Josh: 24 HR/66 RBIs/20 SBs/.252 AVG

Gary: He's got the capability to have a 40/40 type season. Offensively I think he'll produce, what I'm interested in is can he hang at SS?

Sean: Oneil is going to be a 25/25 hitter. I'm really hoping for at least a .333 on-base percentage.

The Moose: Cruz will have an amazing year. Cruz will hit 30 home runs, 98 RBIs, 35 stolen bases, and he will win comeback player of the year.

Jim: I am so happy he's back. Stat line, 28 homers, 85 RBI, 24 SB, and inconsistent but decent enough SS play. 

3. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs this season?

Brian: Cruz

Amanda: I’m expecting it to be Cruz, though Jack Suwinski also has a shot. If Suwinski can have shorter slumps this season compared to last, he should easily hit 30 homers.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds with 27

Gary: Cruz

Sean: Suwinski is going to hit 30+ home runs this season.

The Moose: I think there is going to be a tie. I think Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz will both hit 30 home runs.

Jim: Jack Suwinski

4. Skenes' girlfriend is social media star and LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne. When do you think Dunne will make her first visit to PNC Park for a Pirates game?

Brian: His first start at home - it will have a big time event feel. 

Amanda: I’m betting she’ll be there when he makes his MLB debut.

Josh: May 24th for Skenes debut against the Braves.

Gary: Don't care, didn't care, won't care.

Sean: I'm way too excited for the Livvy Dunne-Paul Skenes media coverage. It will be a step below Taylor-Travis but with more food (see the couple at Primantis or eating Smiley Cookies). Livvy will be at the May 21st Pirates game against San Francisco for Skenes major league debut.

The Moose: This is going to be a surprise to some people but I think that Livvy Dunne will come to the Pirates first home game of the season.

Jim: Livvy will be in attendance for Paul's first start at PNC Park. Let's call it May 24th vs Atlanta for Fireworks night. Let's show her what Zambelli's is all about.

5. Will former Milwaukee Brewer Rowdy Tellez be more successful on the Pirates than former Milwaukee Brewer Daniel Vogelbach?

Brian: He might stick around longer, but I have sort of a bad feeling about Tellez. Yes, there is some upside with the bat and there's a world where he regains past form and hits 30+ HRs, but there's also a world where he is the face of an underwhelming offseason. I am concerned about his defense at first as well and the impact that could have. 

Amanda: I’m hopeful he will. His stats from last year don’t look great, but Tellez had a couple injuries midseason last year that almost certainly affected his production and power at the plate. If he can stay healthy and hit around 20 homers, the signing will be a win for the Pirates. 

Josh: Tellez because I want to be optimistic.

Gary: If he's healthy he'll run into 20, so yeah probably. Plus he plays the field (albeit not well) it's more than just a DH does.

Sean: Yes! Vogelbach had a 0.6 WAR (wins above replacement) with the Pirates. Have to think Rowdy will do better (like 0.8) and maybe even get a stolen base.

The Moose: Rowdy tellez will be more successful because he was a big part of the Brewers last year to help the team make the playoffs. Rowdy Tellez was a ok hitter last year and he was better defensively then Vogelbach. Rowdy Tellez had a better batting average than Vogelbach.

Jim: No.

6. Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Brian: Soft buyers, or maybe neither. I think they'll be at least close to contention and there will be some pressure to make more of a push with more young talent arriving. Can't see a big splashy move though, just filling holes type stuff.

Amanda: I’m going to be optimistic and say they’ll be buyers.

Josh: Both. They will be borderline playoff contenders, trade away someone like Tellez, but also go out and bring in someone to fill a need. 

Gary: Hopefully both. I can see them both needing to move vets and needing to bring in others at different positions.

Sean: Buyers. They're going to acquire some extra starting and relief pitchers. Maybe Jose Quintana if the Mets do poorly again?

The Moose: The Pirates will be buyers because last year the Pirates started off 20-9 and the best team in the MLB if they keep consistently winning like that without key players getting hurt they would like to buy more players to push for the playoffs and have a good season. (Sean's note: I may need to talk to his English teacher about grammar and punctuation.)

Jim: Can I say both? I could see them doing sorta what they did in the early 2010's where they maybe sell off a reliever (Chapman), but add some pieces elsewhere.  

7. The answer to this probably has a lot to do with your answer to the previous question. What is your prediction of the Pirates overall record and what place will they finish in the NL central?

Brian: The spring optimism is starting to get to me, I am really tempted to go into .500+ territory, which would be right in the wild card mix, and I do think that is possible but the major league pitching they are entering the season with just isn't good enough for me to quite get there. 80-82, 3rd place. 

Amanda: 84-78 and second in the NL Central.

Josh: 79-83. I think they finish in 3rd place in the central

Gary: 84 wins, 2nd place in the NL Central.

Sean: I'm optimistic. Since I already saw Amanda and Gary go with 84, I'll predict 83-79. 3rd place in the central

The Moose: This will be a shocker to some people but the Pirates will go 90-72 and the Pirates will finish second in the division behind the amazing Cubs.

Jim: 85-77, Pirates win the NL Central

Thanks to everyone for participating! We'll have to see how we did in October. Please feel free to share your predictions in the comment section below.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-USA Today (Skenes), Pittsburgh Pirates (Cruz), Livvy Dunne's Instagram account (Dunne), Pittsburgh Pirates Instagram account (Tellez)

Live From Camden Yards

Timely is not one of the words to describe my writing. I mean, would now be a good time to share my thoughts on the Steelers drafting Kenny Pickett? Maybe I can write about the Tokyo Olympics. While this isn’t quite as old, this post is about attending the Pittsburgh Pirates game at Camden Yards in Baltimore last week.
 
Welcome to Baltimore!

 
Here are some tips for anyone looking for the least expensive way to attend a baseball game (at least in Baltimore).
 
1. Find a night where there is a thunderstorm but with rain expected to end within an hour of the scheduled first pitch.
 
2. See that the game is delayed and arrive at the stadium parking lot 30 minutes after the scheduled first pitch. Discover that there is no one working the lots which means free parking.
 
3. Bring kids. The Baltimore Orioles have a promotion where for every paid upper deck ticket, you get two free tickets for kids 9 and under. Thanks to arriving at the ticket office about 45 minutes after the scheduled first pitch and in some rain, the person at the box office declared my niece to be 9 even though she’s 10. Therefore, 6 tickets (for me, Pedro Tulo, Luigi, my brother, my niece, and my nephew) cost $26. That’s less than $4.50 per ticket!
 
* The game ended up starting around 8:50 after a 109-minute delay. You’re killing me…
 

* I ran into a good friend from high school at the game. It was great catching up as it was the first time I’ve seen him in probably 15 years.
 
* As I’m typing this, Orioles’ OF Brett Phillips is hitting .149 this season and is 2 for 11 (.182) since joining the team from the Tampa Bay Rays. In his 6-year career with 4 separate teams and 894 plate appearances, Phillips is hitting .190 with a .275 on-base percentage, a .350 slugging percentage, and a career WAR of -0.1. While he’s a good defensive outfielder, he’s not a very good hitter. I write all this because between innings he seems to engage with fans in left field. He’s smiling and always throws a ball into the stands. Seems like a good dude.
 
* In the 7^th inning, Oneil Cruz attempted to check his swing on a 1-2 count. The home plate umpire signaled to the third base umpire to make a determination if it should be a strike or a ball. It was at this exact moment that I (and many others) noticed that there were only 3 umpires on the field. One umpire was sick and that was the first time I realized an umpire was missing. The umpire located near second base ruled that Cruz swung and called him out. While I think it was the right call, the Pirates bench was obviously upset based on the position of the umpire.
 
I bring this up because the same situation happened in the 8^th inning. With Phillips at the plate, the same umpire in the same position ruled that he did not swing on a play. Pirates manager Derek Shelton was rightfully angry and got ejected. In my opinion, the home plate umpire should have made the decision himself. With that written, I think it was the right call again. You can watch it all here:
 

* Hot take alert! I want Kevin Newman on my team.  He’s really solid at shortstop and 2^nd base and is great as a defensive replacement or an occasional starter. The problem is that he seems to have lost any power he had when he hit 12 home runs in 2019 as he only has 6 home runs in 891 plate appearances over the last 3 years including 0 home runs in 2022. He shouldn’t be an everyday starter.
 
* Mitch Keller didn’t seem to have his best stuff and only had 1 strikeout, but he only had 1 walk and allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. He’s pitched well lately, and I really hope he’s a solid starter for the Pirates for years to come.
 
* I really don’t have much else to write about the game itself. The Orioles won 1-0 as the Pirates managed just 6 hits. I saw the Orioles play in Toronto in June, and based on my large sample size of seeing the team twice in person this season, the bullpen (and in particular Felix Bautista) is legit!
 
This is the AP game recap.

Better Future: Pirates or Nationals?

I was born and raised in Pittsburgh and have lived in Northern Virginia for about two decades. So while the Pittsburgh Pirates have always been my favorite baseball team, I follow the Nationals closely too. Yes, following these two teams in 2022 has been challenging. At the all-star break, the teams are a combined 70-117 with the two worst run differentials in all of baseball. For weeks, I’ve considered writing a blog post about which team has the brighter future or even if either team has a bright future. Today is the day I finally did it.

Here’s a quick, quick summary of both teams:

Pittsburgh Pirates

* Signed Ke’Bryan Hayes, arguably the top defensive 3B in baseball, to an 8-year contract

* OF Bryan Reynolds was an all-star and MVP candidate in 2021.

* 5 minor leaguers (Henry Davis, Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Quinn Priester, and Liover Peguero) in the preseason Top 50 of the Top 100 prospects. “Unusually tall” for a SS Oneil Cruz and his incredible arm is now starting for the Pirates.

* Possibility that Roansy Contreras and/or Mitch Keller could become quality, top-end starting pitchers.

* Rookie OF Jack Suwinski had 13 home runs in May and June. Of course, he just got sent down to the minors after going 4 for 37 (.108) in July.

* One of the lowest payrolls in baseball and have traded away any decent player over the last few years.

 

Washington Nationals

*Juan Soto is only 23 and put up numbers in his first four seasons comparable to Mike Trout, Frank Robinson, and Ted Williams. In 2022, he’s having a “down” season batting only .250 though he still has 20 home runs and a .405 on-base percentage. More on him soon.

* Keibert Ruiz is already one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.

* 22 year-old SS Luis Garcia is starting nearly every day.

* 24 year-old Josiah Gray could become a top-tier starting pitcher.

* Only two top players (Cade Cavalli and Brady House) in the preseason minor league top 100 prospects. Cavalli started the season terribly but has pitched significantly better in AAA over the last few months.

* Traded away or failed to re-sign many top players over the last few years. Josh Bell will probably be gone soon too. The two big signings haven’t worked out well either. The team owes Patrick Corbin about $60 million for 2024 and 2025. Corbin is 4-12 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 100 innings this season. Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg has pitched 30.1 innings since winning the World Series MVP in 2019. His base salary is $140 million for 2023-2026 with a full no trade clause though there’s $80 million of deferred money for 2027-2029 in there somewhere.

* Team is for sale.

 

Even with the ownership uncertainty, the Nationals larger payroll and having a generational talent in Juan Soto gives the DC team a slight edge in my opinion. However, this changed after this past weekend. Earlier this season, Soto declined a 13-year, $350 million contract offer. While this is an incredible amount of money, everyone who follows baseball understood that Soto deserved more. The Nationals responded by offering Soto a 15-year, $440 million deal. Although the $29.3 million annual salary would rank 15^th among players based on their 2022 salaries, this would have been the largest contract in MLB history. Soto declined this offer too. Apparently, he feels like he could get more and/or he doesn’t want to play in DC. I don’t think the team will go higher, so with Soto set to be a free agent in 2024, it is being reported that the Nationals are open to trade offers. If Soto leaves, this would continue a trend of the Nationals letting free agents sign elsewhere (Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon) or trading away All-Stars (Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber). The Nationals would essentially turn into the Pirates but with a worse farm system though you’d think they would get a ransom for Soto. Without Soto, I'd take the Pirates.

 

What do you think?

Photo from the Colorado Rockies scoreboard by Brian of RTJR.