2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions Recap

We're about a week into 2026 and a few days after the thrilling Steelers-Ravens game, so now is the perfect time to, um, see how everyone did with their 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions! Yes, the baseball season has been over for 2+ months and the Pirates season ended 3+ months ago, but one of the questions below centered around 2025 in its entirety, so that's why you're getting this now. While I'll give a summary of the questions and results, this is the season predictions post from last March.

1. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

So Skenes is awesome. On the surface, Skenes' 10-10 record seems to show like he had an average year. In reality, Skenes was the best pitcher in the National League and won the Cy Young award thanks to an ERA of 1.97, a WHIP (walks and hits divided by innings pitched) of 0.95, and 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings. That's the best ERA in baseball, best WHIP in the National League, and tied for second in the NL in strikeouts. Just dominant. 

Pretty much everyone thought he would be great though some believed he would be better than others. Nubyjas, Noah, and Andrew predicted he would be a Cy Young candidate, and James wrote that it would be disappointing if he didn't win the award. Jim R. predicted 2nd in the Cy Young voting and maybe he would have been if there was one Cy Young award for all of baseball, though my rant on this is best suited for another time.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs?

The answer was Oneil Cruz with just 20. Ethan, Noah, Jim R., and 1992 were all correct though went higher on the overall number. Saxboy just wrote Oneil.

3. Will Derek Shelton get fired and when?

James predicted that Shelton would get let go in September, and Josh thought during the season. Jim R. simply wrote fired. Shelton actually got fired on May 8, 2025.

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Yes, I waited to publish this post just to see if Skenes would propose to Dunne before midnight on December 31st. He did not. Instead, Skenes shaved his mustache! 

Ethan, Noah, and Jim R., and Saxboy all predicted no. 

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

The answer was probably Isaac Mattson. He was drafted out of Pitt in the 19th round of the 2017 draft by the Angels and reached the majors in 2021 pitching all of 4 games for the Orioles. Mattson then pitched in 3 games for the Pirates in 2024. So coming into 2025 with 9 & 2/3 major league innings pitched, there were no expectations for Mattson. He ended up solidifying the bullpen, particularly after David Bednar got traded, with a 2.45 ERA in 47.2 innings pitched. 

Other nominees: Dennis Santana (picked by Saxboy!) Jared Triolo (his September was amazing), and Braxton Ashcraft. Jim L. gets a partial credit for predicting Spencer Horowitz who had a solid season.

Ethan and 1992 both predicted someone from the bullpen, but picked Kyle Nicolas. who regressed some this year with a 4.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 38 innings. (Noah picked Nicolas too.)

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves not make the playoffs?

So the Mets and Braves failed to reach the postseason. The Dodgers won a thrilling World Series. 

Nubyjas thought a difficult NL East would be problematic for the Braves or Mets. James, Ethan, Jim L., and 1992 all thought the Mets would miss the postseason. Josh and Andrew predicted that the Braves would miss the playoffs. Only Jim R. and Saxboy were wrong in thinking that all three teams would reach the playoffs.

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates?

Well, the Pirates finished with a disappointing 71-91 record and last in the NL Central. No one thought they would be THIS bad. Josh was closest in predicting a 74-88 record.

So now we're not that far away from spring training. By acquiring Brandon Lowe and signing Ryan O'Hearn, there is some optimism heading into the season, but that's for a future post. The next prediction might be if I do one of these posts again for 2026!

Thanks to everyone for participating!