2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions Recap

We're about a week into 2026 and a few days after the thrilling Steelers-Ravens game, so now is the perfect time to, um, see how everyone did with their 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions! Yes, the baseball season has been over for 2+ months and the Pirates season ended 3+ months ago, but one of the questions below centered around 2025 in its entirety, so that's why you're getting this now. While I'll give a summary of the questions and results, this is the season predictions post from last March.

1. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

So Skenes is awesome. On the surface, Skenes' 10-10 record seems to show like he had an average year. In reality, Skenes was the best pitcher in the National League and won the Cy Young award thanks to an ERA of 1.97, a WHIP (walks and hits divided by innings pitched) of 0.95, and 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings. That's the best ERA in baseball, best WHIP in the National League, and tied for second in the NL in strikeouts. Just dominant. 

Pretty much everyone thought he would be great though some believed he would be better than others. Nubyjas, Noah, and Andrew predicted he would be a Cy Young candidate, and James wrote that it would be disappointing if he didn't win the award. Jim R. predicted 2nd in the Cy Young voting and maybe he would have been if there was one Cy Young award for all of baseball, though my rant on this is best suited for another time.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs?

The answer was Oneil Cruz with just 20. Ethan, Noah, Jim R., and 1992 were all correct though went higher on the overall number. Saxboy just wrote Oneil.

3. Will Derek Shelton get fired and when?

James predicted that Shelton would get let go in September, and Josh thought during the season. Jim R. simply wrote fired. Shelton actually got fired on May 8, 2025.

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Yes, I waited to publish this post just to see if Skenes would propose to Dunne before midnight on December 31st. He did not. Instead, Skenes shaved his mustache! 

Ethan, Noah, and Jim R., and Saxboy all predicted no. 

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

The answer was probably Isaac Mattson. He was drafted out of Pitt in the 19th round of the 2017 draft by the Angels and reached the majors in 2021 pitching all of 4 games for the Orioles. Mattson then pitched in 3 games for the Pirates in 2024. So coming into 2025 with 9 & 2/3 major league innings pitched, there were no expectations for Mattson. He ended up solidifying the bullpen, particularly after David Bednar got traded, with a 2.45 ERA in 47.2 innings pitched. 

Other nominees: Dennis Santana (picked by Saxboy!) Jared Triolo (his September was amazing), and Braxton Ashcraft. Jim L. gets a partial credit for predicting Spencer Horowitz who had a solid season.

Ethan and 1992 both predicted someone from the bullpen, but picked Kyle Nicolas. who regressed some this year with a 4.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 38 innings. (Noah picked Nicolas too.)

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, or Braves not make the playoffs?

So the Mets and Braves failed to reach the postseason. The Dodgers won a thrilling World Series. 

Nubyjas thought a difficult NL East would be problematic for the Braves or Mets. James, Ethan, Jim L., and 1992 all thought the Mets would miss the postseason. Josh and Andrew predicted that the Braves would miss the playoffs. Only Jim R. and Saxboy were wrong in thinking that all three teams would reach the playoffs.

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates?

Well, the Pirates finished with a disappointing 71-91 record and last in the NL Central. No one thought they would be THIS bad. Josh was closest in predicting a 74-88 record.

So now we're not that far away from spring training. By acquiring Brandon Lowe and signing Ryan O'Hearn, there is some optimism heading into the season, but that's for a future post. The next prediction might be if I do one of these posts again for 2026!

Thanks to everyone for participating!

2025-2026 Pittsburgh Sports Predictions

For years, I've asked people to share predictions about teams and even elections. For example, before the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates season, I asked for predictions about the overall record of the team, the status of the team's manager (I hope that you're doing well, Derek Shelton!), and who would lead the team in home runs. This is a little different. Today, I asked people for predictions for multiple Pittsburgh-area teams in multiple sports for over a one-year period.

Here are our fabulous participants in these festivities:

Josh: Author of Josh’s World and the reason why I included Penn State questions here. (Bluesky)

Chris Carter: Steelers Reporter and host of North Shore Drive Podcast for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Host of Locked On Steelers too and regular on WPXI. Chris is everywhere and can always be found when there’s a score of 13-9. (Bluesky)

Matt Gajtka: Broadcaster and fitness coach among his multiple roles. (Twitter)

Chris Dokish: Covered Pitt for many years and may know the program better than anyone. (Twitter)

Saxboy: World-traveler, creator of amazing videos, and host of The Saxcast podcast. (Bluesky)

Sean: Founder of Sean’s Ramblings in 2005. Been doing this way too long! (Bluesky)

2025-2026 Steelers

Josh: 10-7. They miss the playoffs

Chris: 11-6, 2nd place AFC North, lose AFC championship game

Matt: 11-6 and they win a Wild Card playoff game, before falling in the Divisional round. I think Rodgers has one last solid season and Pittsburgh will be the beneficiary of it. They are not Super Bowl caliber, but we can finally stop talking about the playoff win drought. 

Chris D.: The defense should be excellent, and if it's not there's going to be a lot of explaining that they'll need to do. The offense, with Aaron Rodgers, should at least be average, which should improve them to 11-6, and maybe finally a first round win. Also, I think Payton Wilson is going to become a star this season.

Saxboy: 9–8, miss playoffs mid draft pick, rinse and repeat. 

Sean: Makes the playoff and win a first-round game.

2025-2026 Penguins

Josh: Yikes, I have not followed the off-season at all. I will say 44 wins, with a first round playoff win

Chris: Miss playoffs again

Matt: 87 points and a couple of wins out of the playoffs. This isn't truly a 'tanking' roster and Malkin gives it an extra boost with a final-season push. But, there's not enough here to put them in the top half of the NHL. At least one more year with the also-rans.

Chris D.: It's hard to say what's in store for them at the moment. They're finally starting to ramp up their rebuild, and if they do that by trading some of their better veterans, then they'll almost definitely have a worse season than this past year. As the roster looks now, they're not really bad, but they may get to that point if they make those trades.

Saxboy: Tank season successfully executed, high draft pick, draft 18 year old kid from Ontario

Sean: Finishes about 10 points out of the playoffs. Team trades Erik Karlsson during the season and Letang and/or Malkin retire after the season.

2025 Pitt Football

Josh: 6-6. Then a loss in a bowl game

Chris: 8-4 regular season, decent bowl game

Matt: 8-4 and they beat West Virginia as part of a 3-0 start. After that ...

Chris D.: They have two All-Americans in Desmond Reid and Kyle Louis, a returning offensive coordinator, the returning starting quarterback in Eli Holstein, who looked like an All-American at the beginning of the season, skill players that now fit the system, a veteran offensive line, and a potentially excellent defense. They flopped the last two seasons, but on paper, they should be a 9-win top 25 team. But it's hard to give them the benefit of the doubt because of how the last two seasons went. I don't predict records including a bowl because those are total crapshoots now, so I'll say an 8-4 regular season record. Anything less is a failure, and I'm not sure with all that they have that 8-4 wouldn't even be a little disappointing. The only other teams that have two All-Americans are elite programs. Like it usually works with Pitt, and especially Narduzzi, it will come down to how well the quarterback does.

Saxboy: 9-3, would love that. Holstein is gonna do his thing.

Sean: 8-4 and a bowl win at either the Go Bowling Military Bowl in DC or the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando.

2025 Penn State Football

Josh: 12-0, National Champs!

Chris: 10-2, College Football Playoffs make Final Four

Matt: One-loss national champions. Don't know much about college football, so why not.

Chris D.: On paper, there may not be a more talented team in the country, but James Franklin has a way of being out coached. Until he shows that he can coach better than his opponents, I have to assume that he'll come up short again.

Saxboy: 11-1, lose Natty 

Sean: Loses to Ohio State in conference play and then in the quarterfinals of the playoffs. Makes Josh sad.

2025 Pitt Men’s Soccer

Josh: Ummm, they win the ACC

Chris: sweet 16

Matt: A trip to the NCAA tournament again, and a berth in the national quarterfinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Makes the NCAA tournament but loses in the second round.

2025 Pitt Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Final Four

Chris: National championship loss

Matt: Another tourney trip, but this time they fall out before the final four.

Chris D.: The best program at Pitt over the last few years, but until they win a championship, they're going to be looked at always coming up short when it counts the most. That sounds harsh, but that's what comes with being No. 1 for most of the year, and also having the best player in the country in Olivia Babcock. Pitt needs a national championship again, and hopefully this is finally the year.

Sean: Not as good as last year. Loses in the national quarterfinals.

2025 Penn State Women’s Volleyball

Josh: Back-to-back National Champs!

Chris: Final Four loss

Matt: Another big year, even if it ends in the national semifinals.

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Trip to the championship, but not back-to-back titles.

2025-2026 Pitt Men’s Basketball

Josh: Slightly better than Penn State men's basketball

Chris: Bubble team just miss NCAA Tournament with 21 or so wins.

Matt: Let's call it a winning season, but a .500 season in the ACC and not enough to make the tourney.

Chris D.: Jeff Capel is very good at accumulating talent (from high school, the portal, and internationally), but I don't think he's a good enough coach for his team to be better than their talent. And the talent this year is not among the best in the ACC. I don't think they'll be bad, but I don't see a tournament run either. I would guess that they'll have somewhere around 16-18 wins. On the other hand, nobody thought a team of Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, Blake Hinson, and Greg Elliott would make the tournament a year after the Panthers were 11-21. Probable starters Damarco Minor, Dishon Jackson, and Cam Corhen are solid, but not game changers, so if the team performs better than expected, they'll have to have big seasons from at least three of Beebah Cummings, Omari Witherspoon, Roman Siulepa, and Barry Dunning, Jr., but that may be asking a lot.

Saxboy: NCAA tournament berth by play in game. L in that

Sean: For no reason other than being a homer, the team makes the NCAA tournament and advances to the round of 32.

2026 Pirates

Josh: 74 wins

Chris: Losing record, no playoffs

Matt: 82-80. I figure they almost have to be better. It'll be another banner year for Skenes and we start to see some supplementation from the farm. I have a hard time saying they'll be legit playoff contenders, though, even in an era of three wild cards per league.

Chris D.: Not to be dramatic, but I honestly see no hope as long as Bob Nutting is the owner. They are both cheap and incompetent, and that's a deadly combination. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and the top prospect in the minors- one a superstar, and one on the verge of being a superstar- and there still feels like there's no hope because Nutting simply doesn't care if they win or not. He just wants the money.

Saxboy: I can’t

Sean: The team finally either trades for a good hitter or signs a free agent hitter under 32 and the team finishes over .500 and competes for a Wild Card spot.

Will any 2025-2026 Robert Morris or Duquesne men’s or women’s basketball team make the NCAA tournament?

Josh: Yes

Chris: No on RMU/Duquesne

Matt: I'll go ahead and say the RMU men's hoopsters make the tournament again. They've gotten in a nice groove in the Horizon League. 

Chris D.: Don't know enough about them

Sean: Not this season.

Will any player on any team win an award? (If yes, who and what?)

Josh: Skenes-Cy Young

Chris: Jalen Ramsey DPOY

Matt: Rodgers gets votes for Comeback Player of the Year, and a freshly-engaged Skenes wins the NL Cy Young in '26. Dan Muse gets some support for the Jack Adams.

Chris D.: I think Paul Skenes is pretty much guaranteed to be the National League Cy Young Award winner.

Saxboy: Bad decision of the year award: saxboybilly18 - for going to the Seattle-Kansas City-Minneapolis

Sean: Olivia Babcock wins national player of the year in volleyball. She’s Pittsburgh’s best athlete not named Skenes or Crosby!

Please share any other predictions here (ex. Steelers draft pick, coaches fired, etc.). 

Josh: Steelers trade up to get a QB in the first round. The Pirates do not sign any hitters, aside from their usual reclamation projects

Chris: Steelers pick LaNorris Sellers first round in 2026 NFL Draft

Matt: The Penguins have a few lottery balls in the hopper, but there's no Gavin McKenna lifeline coming their way!

Chris D.: The Steelers are going to get their next starting quarterback in the first round next year, even if they have to trade up to make sure they get the one they want. And it's going to be a very dramatic scene since it will happen in front of a huge throng of Pittsburghers. Don Kelly won't be retained. If Pitt basketball has a poor season, I would not be surprised, if the buyout isn't high, that they get rid of Jeff Capel. But it would take a really bad season and a very low buyout.

Sean: Snoop Dogg, Pat McAfee, and Bret Michaels will all have some role in the NFL draft in Pittsburgh.

Finally, will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged before the end of the 2026 MLB season?

Josh: No, they get engaged at Taylor and Travis' wedding

Chris: No comment on Skenes/Dunne LOL

Seems like Matt answered this question above with a yes!
 
Chris D.: No. He's too busy dominating.
 
Sean: Yes!

Please feel free to give your own predictions in the comments section below, and we'll see how we did at the end of 2026!

Photos by the incredible Dave DiCello, the Pittsburgh Panthers website, Ethan Shulman of The Pitt News, and Roe Ethridge of GQ.

2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Baseball season starts this week, so it's time for my annual Pirates post where I ask a group of people for their season predictions. While I probably write this every year, I think it's true that this year includes the best group of participants since I started doing these posts. So with that, I'm proud to introduce the panelists.

Nubyjas Wilborn – Pirates fans will remember Nubyjas for covering the Pirates for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette a few years ago. He currently covers the Tennessee Titans for SI. (Twitter)

James Santelli – The biggest Pitt women’s volleyball fan you’ll ever meet! (Blue Sky)

Ethan Hullihen – Arguably the best person to follow on Twitter for Pirates payroll and transactions. (Twitter)

Josh Croyle – Author of Josh’s World and always up for participating in any of my silly or not silly predictions posts. (Blue Sky)

Jim Lokay – Pittsburgh born and bred and FOX 5 DC anchor. (Blue Sky)

Noah Hiles – Pirates beat writer for the Post-Gazette. (Twitter)

Jim Rosati – You know him from NorthShore Nine podcast (Twitter)

Saxboy – Puts together incredible Pirate-related (and other) videos. (Twitter)

1986-1992 Pirates – The best place on the internet to find pictures, videos, and more of the 86-92 Pirates. (Blue Sky)

Andrew Moses: Host of the podcast Everybody Pulls the Tarp. He recently had a great interview with former Pirates manager Clint Hurdle. (Twitter)

1. Let's start with the biggest star on the team and one of the biggest in baseball. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?

Nubyjas: Paul Skenes is one of those rare athletes that I’d happily pay to watch even if it means filling Bob Nutting’s wallet. 😀 But seriously he’s a special talent who if he stays healthy can be a perennial CY Young candidate. I expect a great season.

James: It appears that anything less than a Cy Young Award and the Pirates' first no-hitter in 28 years (and first solo no-hitter in 49 years) would be a disappointment. Is it fair to actually expect those from Skenes? Why not! I would say the sky's the limit, but his limit may put him out of Earth's orbit.

Ethan: It wouldn’t be fair to expect MORE than what Skenes provided last year. Sure, it’s certainly possible—and maybe even likely—I’m just saying we shouldn’t expect it. With this season being his first full campaign, I can’t imagine the team totally lets the reins off quite yet. Other than that, nothing would really surprise me, but again, just don’t expect it. Young pitching is fleeting.

Josh: Fan expectations are insanely high, everyone seems to think he will go 28-0 with at least ten no-hitters. I do not think he will be quite that good. I am thinking 14-7, 2.97 ERA, finishes top five in Cy Young.

Jim L.: He'll dominate once again -- maybe not ASG starter stuff that early on, but there's no reason to think he'll regress.

Noah: The sky's the limit for Skenes. I think it's reasonable to predict he will be well in the mix for this year's National League Cy Young. I personally think he wins the award after leading baseball in ERA and strikeouts. 

Jim R.: I'm not sure it’s fair to expect to see what he did last year, but I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL this season. Let’s go with something like 15-5 with a 2.55 ERA and he finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting. 

1992: It’s going to be difficult for Skenes to top such an incredible rookie season. But he’s a student of the game and he’s aiming to do just that. In that vein, Skenes has been tinkering with a couple new pitches this spring in an effort to try and induce contact so he can lower his pitch count and thus go deeper into games. I think this approach and adjustment will cause him to take somewhat of a “step back” because the movement on his pitches is just too good. It’s simply hard for hitters to make contact on him. I think he needs to double down on what he does best, go for the strikeout and make batters try and miss his pitches. He’s also going to be without his personal catcher Yasmani Grandal. In 2024, Skenes for the most part allowed more base runners and ran up high pitch counts in his first few innings of starts, but then locked in and became much more efficient as the game progressed. Grandal had a knack of working with Paul to make adjustments during the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Don’t get me wrong, Skenes is still going to have a very good season. I can envision him with an ERA in the low 3’s, 14 wins, and 250 strikeouts in over 30 starts this season.

Andrew: Huge season. 15+ wins, over 1K/IP, flirts with a no-hitter at least 1-2 times. Cy Young candidate.

Saxboy: Continued dominance, and a full season of starts which is so exciting. Kinda feels like Nikola Jokic where he'll be breaking his own records year after year in a super efficient fashion.

2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs in 2025? (Sean’s Note: My pick of Jack Suwinski in 2024 was so bad that I disqualified myself from participating in this year’s predictions.)

Nubyjas: While he’s not a power hitter I will pick Bryan Reynolds because he at least makes consistent contact. I’d love for O’Neil Cruz or Ke’Bryan Hayes to prove me wrong.

James: I'll call for Bryan Reynolds with the first 30-homer season of his career. Let's get him one before he gets to the sorry end of the age curve.

Ethan: Not much of a choice here—the smart money is either on Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz. I’m going with Cruz, and let’s say somewhere between 25 and 30.

Josh: Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with just 23 HRs.

Jim L.: Bryan Reynolds?

Noah: I will go with Oneil Cruz. If I have to pick a number, I will guess 33. 

Jim R.: Gonna have to go with Cruz. Hoping the move to CF can allow him to just go out there and play ball. 

1992: Obvious answer is Oneil Cruz. He has the most raw power on the club. But I do not believe he is going to go up there swinging for the fences every time like he did the first season-and-a-half of his career. He’s going to be focused more on putting the ball in play, and getting productive outs. He’ll have a higher batting average but that’s going to limit his homers to 28.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Oneil Cruz

3. Will Derek Shelton be fired as the Pirates manager during the season, fired after the season, or be the team's manager in 2026?

Nubyjas: If you would’ve asked me this before the Jared Jones news I would’ve said no because I believe the Pirates pitching would’ve overcame deficiencies in hitting. But. If Jones is out for a significant time period it could get ugly.

James: Unless he can get the Bucs over .500 and in contention when the Steelers are playing games that matter, nope, he's toast. I'll predict he gets the axe in mid-September and Don Kelly takes over.

Ethan: I’m not sure those making the decision are the type that would make such a move during the season, but I don’t think the club is going to be good enough (see below) to be considered to have taken the next step, so let’s say Shelton goes after the season.

Josh: No, I think he is fired before the end of the season.

Jim L.: There's a difference between being the manager of a bad team and the manager of an underperforming team. It's not his fault that Nutting doesn't give him what he needs to win, but it's easier to fire a manager than it is to admit fault (or sell the team.) So, I think he's safe this year. Next year? That's anyone's guess.

Noah: I don't think Derek Shelton will be fired this season, but I also don't think he will be the manager next year. 

Jim R.: Fired.

1992: I like Derek Shelton the person but don’t believe he is the right manager to lead them to the playoffs. I just believe after 5 years of losing the team needs a different voice. That said, this is an organization that is painfully slow to make changes. Only a complete dumpster fire would cost people jobs (see 2019 season with embarrassing arrests and clubhouse fights). I believe the club will show enough improvement that Derek will keep his job and be back in 2026.

Andrew: Manager in 2026. This is a step forward year for the Pirates.

Saxboy: Shelton saw me at spring training, laughed and said "You're the guy who rides the bike!!!" so he should be given a lifetime contract. In all honesty I have no idea, I tend to lean more on the thought that the baseball manager has less to do with the teams performance than people think. But much smarter people than me tell me otherwise... I JUST WANT TO WIN GAMES!!! 

4. Will Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne get engaged in 2025?

Nubyjas: Sure. Why not?

James: Yes, aboard the Gateway Clipper Fleet. But not on the Princess or the Duchess. Oh, no. It's gotta be the Empress.

Ethan: I really couldn’t care less about social media “stardom”, so I’ll just say I hope those kids are happy. And if I had to bet…I’m going with no.

Josh: Yes

Jim L.: I don't care.

Noah: No idea. Probably not. 

Jim R.: No

1992: Yes, my guess is it will happen after the season concludes, around the holidays in 2025 before the new year. 

Andrew: 2025 offseason.

Saxboy: They're wayyyyyy too young. Don't get married until you're at least 30!

5. Who is your surprise/breakout player for the Pirates this season?

Nubyjas: Ji Hawn Bae if for no other reason than it’s time for him to show and prove or move on.

James: Call me naïve, but I'm still a believer in Henry Davis. There's something in the bat that I can't shake. And when Endy or Bart gets hurt, because a catcher always gets hurt, I think Davis will seize the moment and put some punch into the lineup this summer.

Ethan: This really isn’t my kind of thing, like at all, so I’m not sure my answer matters. I would be willing to bet Oneil Cruz would be the popular pick, so I’ll try and come up with someone different. I’ll say that Kyle Nicolas comes up after some bullpen glut gets sorted through, finds some control, and becomes a big contributor to the bullpen.

Josh: Bubba Chandler...I think he comes up early and has a solid year, perhaps finishing in the top 3 for ROY

Jim L.: I'm pulling for Spencer Horowitz.

Noah: I will go with Kyle Nicolas. I expect him to have a really good year out of the bullpen. 

Jim R.: I hope there’s a few, but let’s go with Nick Yorke. 

1992: Someone from the bullpen. Let’s go with Kyle Nicolas. People have been raving about his stuff for a long time, and he is good friends with Skenes and Jones. I think their mentality and preparation will rub off on him, and I could see Kyle emerging to be a solid 8th inning guy on a team that desperately needs a lockdown bullpen after last year’s disasters.

Andrew: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Saxboy: Dennis Santana becomes closer, can also report that dude is the man!

6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves NOT make the playoffs?

Nubyjas: Too much would have to go wrong for the Dodgers to miss the playoffs. Hell, they were without Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts yet had no problem smoking the Cubs in Japan. If anything the NL East gauntlet could eliminate either the Braves or Mets because the Phils are a good team and the Marlins can catch you slipping.

James: Hmm let's go with the Mets missing out. If one of Lindor or Soto gets hurt or has a protracted slump, things could really get interesting -- especially since the Braves are a more complete team in that division.

Ethan: Injuries are already creeping up on both the Mets and Braves already, but in the end, I’d say it’s more likely than not all three make it. However, I’d say the Mets have the worst chance.

Josh: Yes, the Braves miss out this year

Jim L.: MLB is broken. They all SHOULD because they spend the money, but somehow, I think the Mets revert to their old ways and vastly underperform this year and miss the postseason.

Noah: The Mets will miss the playoffs. Not enough pitching. 

Jim R.: No

1992: The NL East is loaded. The NL West is loaded. Outside the division winners, your wild cards will come from those 2 divisions. I could see the Mets missing the playoffs, and the other wild card going to Arizona who just missed out last year.

Andrew: Braves won't

Saxboy: They're all in!

7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates? (Record, finish in the NL Central, etc.)

Nubyjas: My prediction is pain. It’s hard to see this team finishing higher than third in the Central which is a shame considering how weak the division seems to be this season. Pirates will finish sub .500 again.

James: 77-84 (Some game against the Nationals or the Reds late in the season gets rained out with no re-scheduling), which still winds up being good enough for 3rd place in the NL Central. Maybe I'm just pessimistic because I'm making predictions right after word that Jared Jones is having elbow trouble -- but that news only illustrates how many things must go right, and how little can go wrong, for the 2025 Pirates to be a playoff contender. I'll note that I was two wins on the optimistic side last year with a 78-84 prediction.

Ethan: As anyone reading this hopefully knows, I’m really not one for bloviating or prognosticating, so thanks for bearing with me (I couldn’t even get one numbers question?!). Personally, I don’t think the team is going to be very good—they weren’t very good last year, and didn’t do a ton to get much better. Internal improvement is their only hope, and the list of “if such and such goes right, they may have a chance” can only get so long before there actually isn’t one. Ultimately, I’m not sure they finish above .500, so let’s go with 80-82.

Josh: 74-88...4th place.

Jim L.: 4th place. 78-84. If they open strong as they've done in the past, it'll be short-lived. If they start off sluggish, they'll only turn it around enough to skirt .500. I'm sorry, I want this team to win but I'm just numb to the lack of commitment by the ownership.

Noah: I think the Pirates will finish 82-80. They will remain in wild card contention until the final weeks of September, but ultimately run out of gas down the final stretch. 

Jim R.: 76-86, 4th place 

1992: I think the team will show enough improvement to keep management’s jobs safe but will fall short of the playoffs and .500. They’ll be in “contention” for that last Wild card spot in September but fade down the stretch. My prediction is 4th place, 80-82.

Andrew: 83 wins, 3rd in NL Central

Saxboy: I need to stay optimistic, we are due for at least ONE offensive break out. Give me 82-80 and sniffing around the final wild card. I NEED COMPETITIVE BASEBALL IN SEPTEMBER!

Thanks to everyone for participating!

Photo credits:

Skenes from Pirates Twitter.

Reynolds by Hakim Wright Sr AP

Livvy Dunne by Ben Watts/SI

Ohtani by Mary Decicco/MLB Photos via Getty

Live From Camden Yards

Timely is not one of the words to describe my writing. I mean, would now be a good time to share my thoughts on the Steelers drafting Kenny Pickett? Maybe I can write about the Tokyo Olympics. While this isn’t quite as old, this post is about attending the Pittsburgh Pirates game at Camden Yards in Baltimore last week.
 
Welcome to Baltimore!

 
Here are some tips for anyone looking for the least expensive way to attend a baseball game (at least in Baltimore).
 
1. Find a night where there is a thunderstorm but with rain expected to end within an hour of the scheduled first pitch.
 
2. See that the game is delayed and arrive at the stadium parking lot 30 minutes after the scheduled first pitch. Discover that there is no one working the lots which means free parking.
 
3. Bring kids. The Baltimore Orioles have a promotion where for every paid upper deck ticket, you get two free tickets for kids 9 and under. Thanks to arriving at the ticket office about 45 minutes after the scheduled first pitch and in some rain, the person at the box office declared my niece to be 9 even though she’s 10. Therefore, 6 tickets (for me, Pedro Tulo, Luigi, my brother, my niece, and my nephew) cost $26. That’s less than $4.50 per ticket!
 
* The game ended up starting around 8:50 after a 109-minute delay. You’re killing me…
 

* I ran into a good friend from high school at the game. It was great catching up as it was the first time I’ve seen him in probably 15 years.
 
* As I’m typing this, Orioles’ OF Brett Phillips is hitting .149 this season and is 2 for 11 (.182) since joining the team from the Tampa Bay Rays. In his 6-year career with 4 separate teams and 894 plate appearances, Phillips is hitting .190 with a .275 on-base percentage, a .350 slugging percentage, and a career WAR of -0.1. While he’s a good defensive outfielder, he’s not a very good hitter. I write all this because between innings he seems to engage with fans in left field. He’s smiling and always throws a ball into the stands. Seems like a good dude.
 
* In the 7^th inning, Oneil Cruz attempted to check his swing on a 1-2 count. The home plate umpire signaled to the third base umpire to make a determination if it should be a strike or a ball. It was at this exact moment that I (and many others) noticed that there were only 3 umpires on the field. One umpire was sick and that was the first time I realized an umpire was missing. The umpire located near second base ruled that Cruz swung and called him out. While I think it was the right call, the Pirates bench was obviously upset based on the position of the umpire.
 
I bring this up because the same situation happened in the 8^th inning. With Phillips at the plate, the same umpire in the same position ruled that he did not swing on a play. Pirates manager Derek Shelton was rightfully angry and got ejected. In my opinion, the home plate umpire should have made the decision himself. With that written, I think it was the right call again. You can watch it all here:
 

* Hot take alert! I want Kevin Newman on my team.  He’s really solid at shortstop and 2^nd base and is great as a defensive replacement or an occasional starter. The problem is that he seems to have lost any power he had when he hit 12 home runs in 2019 as he only has 6 home runs in 891 plate appearances over the last 3 years including 0 home runs in 2022. He shouldn’t be an everyday starter.
 
* Mitch Keller didn’t seem to have his best stuff and only had 1 strikeout, but he only had 1 walk and allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. He’s pitched well lately, and I really hope he’s a solid starter for the Pirates for years to come.
 
* I really don’t have much else to write about the game itself. The Orioles won 1-0 as the Pirates managed just 6 hits. I saw the Orioles play in Toronto in June, and based on my large sample size of seeing the team twice in person this season, the bullpen (and in particular Felix Bautista) is legit!
 
This is the AP game recap.

2021 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

With the 2021 baseball season starting today, I asked people to share their predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates. While I’ve done similar predictions posts over the years about the Steelers, Penguins, Pirates, the 2020 elections, and even the entire 2020s decade, this might be my favorite group of participants yet. Let’s begin with the introductions:

* Bob Pompeani - Longtime KDKA sports director and sports anchor

* Rich - Host of the Why, Bloody Valentine? podcast

* Josh - Creator of one of my favorite blogs, Josh’s World

* Brian - Founder of the now defunct Raise the Jolly Roger blog

* Jim - Founder of the now defunct North Side Notch blog.

* Dillon T. Pickle - The mascot and heart of the Portland Pickles baseball team (I really want to buy some Pickles gear.)

* Matt Gajtka - A jack of all trades in the Pittsburgh sports community including on Pittsburgh Sports Live and Pittsburgh Golf Now.

* Aaron Brame - Among his many accomplishments, Aaron wrote this really cool baseball poem.

* The Moose - My now 10 year old son. Please excuse his writing as he’s only in 4th grade.

And now to the predictions.

1. Most Pirates fans and many baseball fans are excited about 3rd baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. How do you think he'll do this year? (Feel free to give predicted statistics.)

Bob: Hayes will have solid start but I believe the opposition pitcher will make adjustments to him in time...but still he is the bright spot on this franchise....281 16 HR 81 RBI

Rich: Great! Based on his performance last year and this Spring he could have a Rookie of the Year type season, if the rest of the offense doesn't completely tank. But honestly,  they might tank.

Josh: I think Ke'Bryan has a great year. I would say between .280-.300 average, 15-20 HRs...but I think he ends up finishing second for the ROY. Someone will emerge with a bigger year. And yes, I realize in my prediction post, I picked him to win the award. I like to hedge my bets.

Brian: There is no reason not to be extremely high on Hayes - he has the prospect pedigree, he was phenomenal after being called up in 2020, and has looked great again this spring. I do want to pump the brakes just a little bit, but that's not really because of anything he's done - it's just that the hype (ROY favorite, undisputed star of the team 24 games into his career) is going to be difficult to live up to for just about anyone. The numbers have to come down from the crazy production he put up last September - I'll be happy if he's able to stabilize as an above average hitter for a full season. Something like ~15 homers with an OPS north of .800 , maybe a .280 AVG or so would be a reasonable expectation. 

Jim: Count me as one of the fans expecting big things. As far as traditional statistics go, I think he could hit .280 with 20 HR. If we want to get more advanced, I think the glove will greatly help him and we’re looking at a 5 WAR season. 

Dillon: Ke'Bryan is not going to hit .376 again, but he will still rake. .300/350/450 sounds right 

Matt: I love Hayes' raw tools. He hit the ball so darn hard last year and his defense is off the charts for a youngster, especially. I think he gets a little more lift on those liners this year and hits 25 homers with a .350ish OBP.

Aaron: A dependable third baseman who can hit in the two spot? Yes, I am excited about this. Let’s make 2021 be the year of Ke’Bryan Hayes. May he become my favorite new Pirate and give a reason for me to tune in.

The Moose: I think he will be really good for the Pirates because he was so good last year at the end of the season.

2. What pitcher will have the most wins for the Pirates this season?

Bob: Most wins for the Pirates will be Chad Kuhl..  11

Rich: Kuhl? Who knows? I fear the Pirates won't hit enough to put their starters in a position to win many games and whoever the sixth starter/bullpen guy (Cahill?) might pick up enough wins between starting and relief to contest for the lead.

Josh: The Pirates pitchers are not good. I am guessing the team leader has nine wins and in all honesty, I would not be shocked if it ended up being a relief pitcher. I guess I will take Mitch Keller, but I would not count out someone like Michael Feliz or Chris Stratton. 

Brian:  Ugh, what a tough and sad question. Chad Kuhl is probably the best bet to get the most opportunities at the moment, so I'll choose him. 

Jim: So I think it’ll be a reliever. I’ll go with Chris Stratton. 

Dillon: Mitch Keller will get the most wins. 

Matt: When you're talking pitcher wins, you're pretty much talking about volume of innings. But there's no reliable vet on this pitching staff, and Steven Brault is out at least a  month, so ... I suppose I'll go with Chad Kuhl here. I remain a fan of his potential.

Aaron: I thought sabermetrics killed questions about win totals for pitchers. Or maybe not. I’m quite out of touch, so much so that none of the names on the current rotation ring a bell for me. 

The Moose: Chad Kuhl

3. Who will have a break-out year or at least surprise you (in a good way) in 2021?

Bob: Breakout season for Pirates will be Anthony Alford

Rich: Gregory Polanco! I don't know if it's my natural inclination to be a contrarian or the fact that I bought his jersey as a Rookie or that I truly believe it but I feel like he's going to turn it around. He's legitimately playing for his career this season, so hopefully that adds some motivation.

Josh: This is weird, but I think Gregory Polanco has a breakout year. If he can stay healthy and can get off to a hot start, then he should find himself a new home before the trade deadline. 

Brian: People are so down on Gregory Polanco, and (mostly) deservedly so. I get it. But we all know the potential that's in there, and now that things have been pointing in the wrong direction for a while, and you know it's at least possible he can play a lot better, that makes for a good breakout or surprise pick, right? His big (by Pirates' standards) contract can be bought out after this year, so if he wants to continue being overpaid or put himself in a position to be even a mildly attractive free agent, he needs to perform this year, and that can also help fuel surprise seasons sometimes. 

Jim: Tough question. I don’t know if it constitutes a “break-out” label, but I think Polanco can top his 2018 campaign. 

Dillon: Steven Wright will have a great year. His ERA flip flops from horrible to amazing every year he pitches, and considering he last pitched in 2019 to an 8.53 ERA, you can only expect greatness when the pendulum swings back. 

Matt: Bryan Reynolds will bounce back in a big way. I think he's too talented to be what we saw last season for any kind of significant period of time. Honorable mention to Kevin Newman, who made some swing adjustments and looks strong at the plate in spring.

Aaron: Your question prompted some googling, during which I discovered a rookie center fielder named Dustin Fowler who seems to have just made the squad recently. Yesterday, in fact. So let’s pull for this to be the year of the prospects and hope for both Hayes and Fowler to blow up. 

The Moose: Probably Ke’Bryan Hayes because he is so fast and so physical with the ball he can hit, steal bases so fast and good at saving singles. (Sean’s note: We need to work on grammar.) 

 

4. What is manager Derek Shelton thinking in this picture?

Bob: Shelton is thinking, where can I get more power in my lineup?

Rich: Pineapple on pizza. Obviously.

Josh: "Is it too late to go back to Minnesota?"

Brian: Haha, how about “What have I gotten myself into??”

Jim: This is the worst job I’ve had since I was in that Speed Hitter commercial. 

Dillon: "Will Bob Nutting be mad if we only get a 2nd round pick this year?"

Matt: "How many losing seasons do I get before my bosses get restless and I have to step on the gas pedal?"

Aaron: “This is fine.”

The Moose: About all the teams he has been on.

5. The Pirates have the #1 pick in the 2021 Major League Baseball draft in June. Who do you think they will pick: Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, or someone else?

Bob: It's a nice problem to have....I prefer Leiter but I believe they will take Rocker...either will give them a bona fide top of rotation guy....the question is when?  How soon?

Rich: It doesn't appear that you can go wrong with either one. I want them to pick Leiter because I think his last name will give endless wordplay opportunities for all of the unlicensed merchandise producers. I think they'll take Rocker though because of his size.

Josh: They should take Rocker. They would be crazy not to take Rocker. They will anger fans if they do not take Rocker. I can see the case for Jack Leiter, but I just think Kumar Rocker is the more complete, more MLB ready pitcher. 

Brian: Smart money is probably still on Rocker - bigger, probably more durable, and been #1 on the board for a while. But Leiter has been absolutely insane lately and to my very untrained eye (that also has barely actually seen either one pitch), he is starting to feel like the "safer" pick . I saw one Vanderbilt fan comment "Rocker COULD win a Cy Young, but Leiter WILL be an 8-time all-star. Obviously that is just one person's assessment (and more of a wild guess) but I can't get that thought out of my head, and if it's me with that choice I take Leiter. But if the draft was tomorrow, I would be thrilled with either and would not complain either way.

Jim: I think they take Kumar Rocker. His overall presence on the mound and excellent stuff makes him look like the prototypical ace you want on your staff. There’s still a lot of time for stuff to develop, though, so we’ll see!

Dillon: Kumar Rocker. He has all the hype

Matt: I'll go with Kumar Rocker since he has the longer successful track record in Division I ball. Disclaimer: I'm not a scout.

Aaron: They got the #1 pick? Sweet. Is that because they won 19 games last year? It’s probably because they only won 19 games last year isn’t it? But both those dudes sound like studs; I hope it works out! 

The Moose: Kumar Rocker

6. The Pirates traded many of its bigger name players during the offseason. What player or players will be traded before the end of the 2021 season?

Bob: Adam Frazier is the most likely to be traded...versatile, defender who can also be a good top of lineup on base guy....If he gets off to a good start, he should bring back more in a deal...  They can only hope Polanco gets off to a good start and somebody would be interested....but in any event, the Pirates will have to pick up a large portion of salary

Rich: Polanco if possible. Richard Rodriguez. Chad Kuhl will go if he performs well too.

Josh: I think they trade as much as they can if teams offer anything. This is a rebuild, so almost none of these guys will be here when they turn the corner. The only players to not trade are Hayes and probably Keller. Other than that, if someone makes an offer, they should take it. 

Brian: Well if my Polanco breakout pick comes true, he's probably out of here. But the other clear pick is Adam Frazier. I honestly have no idea how he wasn't traded during the offseason firesale, but if he can even somewhat carry his hot spring into the season, that will turn out to be a wise choice. 

Jim: I think there are a lot of good candidates: Trevor Cahill, Richard Rodriguez, Adam Frazier, and Gregory Polanco all seem to be pretty good guesses. 

Dillon: Say goodbye to Tyler Anderson, Adam Frazier, and Richard Rodriguez.

Matt: Now that it turns out Todd Frazier is sticking around -- which I like, since he always seemed fun to watch when he was tearing up the Pirates -- I think I'll go with him. Like you say, there's not much left on the ol' Pirates ship to deal.

Aaron: Josh Bell’s departure to the Nationals bummed me out, but then again the 2020 season was just a baseball shipwreck in a global quagmire. My wife and I got to see Bell in spring training in 2017, before he’d played much in the bigs, and I was hoping that he’d be around for years with the club, and that I could tell the story to my kids. Yeah, your mom and I saw that dude play when he was just starting out. But he’s gone, gone.

I don’t know if it will be a trade, but Polanco will be gone soon too. The Pirates aren’t going to pay him $12.5 million next year to lead the team in strikeouts. (They might.)

The Moose:  Adam Frazier 

 

7. Finally, what do you think the Pirates record will be, and what place will they finish in the National League central division?

Bob: Pirates will be 62-100 but that would be made more palatable IF they can develop a core beyond Hayes…

Rich: 69 -93, Fourth in the division.

Josh: 67-95. I do not think they lose 100 games. They will be bad though, and they will definitely finish last in the division. Most likely they finish in the bottom five of MLB. 

Brian: The last over-under I saw is 58.5. I have seen many people call that way too low - but let me remind these people that this team played at a 51-win pace, and the roster got worse, not better. I love the direction they have taken and the commitment to acquiring prospects, but this year is still going to be extremely ugly. There are a few things to be optimistic about - Hayes, potential bounce-backs from a couple of guys (Reynolds/Newman in particular), I really like Anthony Alford, and am excited to hopefully see some of these new young guys get some run .... plus, I do *somewhat* buy that last year was just so bad that they have to be a *little* better....but a little better still means 100 losses. 62-100.

Jim: This team is bad. 54-108, 5th place. 

Dillon: The Pirates will win a generous 66 games, good for last place. Next year! 

Matt: I think they'll go 65-97 and finish DFL (dead-freaking last) in the National League Central.

Aaron: My first real memory of watching a Pirates game was also my first visit to a bar. I was six, and we were visiting Pittsburgh, and my dad took us to a dark dive to meet the owner. They’d grown up together. There was a small television in the corner of the room broadcasting a day game from Three Rivers Stadium, and I watched a few innings. At the time the game was still new to me, and I wondered about things like why batters choked up high on the bat or why the ump would roll a clean baseball toward the mound after a final put-out. When I’d see a player bounce a liner off the right field wall and then slide safely into second I would say to myself, “That was a double.” I remember the Pirates’ white jerseys and their shiny yellow helmets. I recognized Jim Bibby’s name from a pennant my brother had hanging on his wall. Jim Bibby was the first Pirate to let me down. 

The Pirates are going to lose 95 games this year and end up in the cellar. Garrit Cole is going to win the Cy Young for the Yankees, and we’ll watch him in the playoffs and think bitter thoughts. Let’s go Bucs!

The Moose: They will probably do a little bit better. I will say 87- 75 and 2nd place.

So who will get the most predictions correct? I guess we'll find out in October. Please feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments section below.

In case you're wondering, I decided not to participate because I felt like I was taking other people's predictions. Besides, I'm kicking myself for not having any questions related to the Cole Tucker-Vanessa Hudgens relationship. What a missed opportunity! 

Ke'Bryan Hayes photo by Douglas P. DeFelice / Getty Images. The Tucker-Hudgens photo is from Vanessa's Instagram. (Vanessa and I are on a first name basis!)