So
you may have heard that there are national elections on Tuesday. It’s the
biggest Presidential election in our lifetime. Well, at least until 2024. While
there are numerous polls available for just about every local, state, and
national race, I decided to ask an esteemed group of panelists for their
thoughts and predictions on a variety of topics. The questions and answers are
below, but before that, let me introduce you to the panelists.
Me - I’m the guy writing this blog. You’ll see why I’m referring to myself as me
in the post momentarily.
Josh - The author of the terrific blog Josh’s World. I’ll even call him a frequent
collaborator since he always participates in any of my blog ideas.
Deb - My friend and trivia teammate.
Jon - A fellow Pittsburgher who I find that I have regular disagreements with on
Twitter. We do agree on plenty of things though.
Barry - My friend and former colleague.
Rich - Besides being a must follow on Twitter, Rich also hosts the podcast Why,Bloody Valentine? where he tries to share his love of horror with his “decidedly
not a horror fan” wife.
Dr.
Sean Foreman - Professor, Political Science and Chair, Department of History of
Political Science in the College of Arts & Sciences at Barry University in
Miami. He has also co-edited a book series titled “The Roads to Congress” every
two years since 2010. The Roads to Congress 2018 is available here.
1. Who will win the Presidential election and by how much
based on Electoral College numbers (or by number of votes if you prefer)?
Me: Biden wins 307 to 231. I think
he wins Pennsylvania in a very close race as well as Michigan, Wisconsin,
Arizona, and Georgia.
Josh: Joe Biden 285 to 252. I think
he ends up with about five million more votes.
Deb: Biden will win with over 300
electoral college votes (please dear God if there's any justice in the
universe).
Jon: I have Trump winning by a
very small margin, 20 electoral votes, but once again losing the popular vote
by quite a bit.
Barry: Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States of
America, winning the Electoral College vote 357-181. The final margin
will include some very close outcomes at the state level. The red side
will eke out victories in Texas and Ohio, but will drop the 2016 Trump states
of North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and
Wisconsin. The real surprise is that the Democrats will win Georgia by
greater margins than Florida and North Carolina. Biden will also take the
2nd District of Nebraska’s one electoral vote.
Rich:
This is insanely difficult to pick. The map is starting to turn more purple
than just red and blue. I think Biden might pull off a win in Georgia, but I
think the mythical Texas victory is still one or two cycles away. I am also concerned
states will invalidate election results, specifically in Pennsylvania and
attempt to send their own electors. In the end I have Biden winning 297 to 241.
But I wouldn’t be shocked if it was more.
Sean: If the polls are to be
believed:
If the polls are incorrect and there
is a greater, silent Trump vote:
I love that the political science professor included maps!
2. By day and time, when will the American public first
learn who won the Presidential election? (For example, Tuesday, November 3rd at
11:30PM Eastern time.)
Me: Wednesday, November 4th
at 7:58PM. Just in time to interrupt The Masked Singer.
Josh: November 4th at 6
p.m.
Deb: Wednesday, November 4th at
2:30AM EST.
Jon: Man, good question.
Pennsylvania is going to have a lot of votes to count after Tuesday, and my
prediction comes down to PA’s 20 votes - so I will say we won’t know for sure
until Friday at 6pm.
Barry: Because it is likely that the Trump campaign will contest
several states in court, nothing will be official for a while. However, I
believe that the news outlets will call it for the Biden campaign on Friday,
November 6th at 10:15 a.m. The Trump campaign, however,
will not concede for some time after that.
Rich:
I’m not even sure how to answer this. I think Trump will claim victory on
election night and Biden will neither claim victory or concede. Trump is
already laying the groundwork to have legitimate votes thrown out and that
likely means we are headed to courts. News outlets will declare victory for
candidates within two or three days, but that hardly matters. My best guess is
we know around 2 PM on December 14th, when electors vote in their
states.
Sean: Best case, Wednesday, Nov. 4
at 3:00 am; more likely a day or two later and maybe Saturday, Nov 7 at 12:00
pm, if we have to wait to count all of Pennsylvania’s mail in ballots which can
be received by Friday at 5 pm, as you know, and learn PA’s result before we
have a definite winner. Biden will likely win the popular vote, either
way.
3. Who wins the South Carolina Senate race: Lindsey Graham or
Jamie Harrison?
Me: Harrison in a very close race.
Josh: Jamie Harrison
Deb: Jamie Harrison because Graham
must rot in obscurity hell.
Jon: Graham.
Barry: Lindsay Graham will survive
the well-fought battle by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin.
Rich: Jamie Harrison
Sean: Graham. Harrison made a
great run of it but I think the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett saved
Lindsey Graham. Harrison will have raised the most money ever for a
Senate campaign only to lose like Beto O’Rouke of Texas whose record he
broke. South Carolina is still South Carolina despite the MSNBC spin.
4. Who wins the Kentucky Senate race: Mitch McConnell or Amy
McGrath?
Me: McConnell.
Josh: Mitch McConnell
Deb: Unfortunately for humanity,
Mitch. Who also deserves to rot in obscurity hell.
Jon: McConnell.
Barry: Mitch McConnell will be
re-elected by a 54% to 46% margin.
Rich:
Mitch McConnell and it won’t be particularly close.
Sean: McConnell
5. Will the Democrats flip the Senate?
Me: Yes. I’m not giving a prediction
on the number of seats, but at a minimum, it will be 50-50 with the Democrats getting
the tie-breaker with Kamala Harris as Vice President.
Josh: Yes
Deb: Yes.
Jon: Yes.
Barry: Yes, but it will take until
January’s anticipated run-off(s) in Georgia to get a final margin. It
should end -up 54-46, but I have a bad feeling about Steve Bullock holding off
the incumbent Republican Steve Daines. The Greenfield/Ernst race in Iowa
has been polling at even, give or take, but I think Ernst’s debate blunder will
result in a 2 point loss
Rich: Yes. Slightly.
Sean: Yes. They will do this by
flipping seats in Colorado, Iowa (I probably should put Iowa as blue in that
case), Kansas (I think they will split and vote for Trump and the Dem for
Senate), Arizona (same as Kansas, though Biden could win AZ), and Ossoff in
Georgia. They will lose Doug Jones in Alabama. I keep going back and forth,
but think the incumbents will win in Maine and North Carolina. All
of this is me hedging my picks based on the 2016 sting.
6. Will California approve Prop 18 to allow 17-year-olds who
will be 18 at the time of the next general election to vote in primaries and
special elections?
Me: I’ll say yes since the
California Democratic party seems to be in favor of this. However, this seems
like even if voters approve this, it’s going to be in court for years and may end up before the Supreme
Court.
Josh: Yes, but I think it will be a
very close vote
Deb: Yes
Jon: No.
Barry: Yes.
Rich:
No. Older voters seem to think 17 year olds are significantly less informed
than they are, despite no evidence existing this is the case. When it comes to
kids people tend to want them to sit down and shut up.
Sean: Yes. This could
get interesting if it evolves to other states.
7. Will Colorado approve Proposition 114 to reintroduces
gray wolves on public lands?
Me: No since the Colorado Wildlife
Commission voted against this in 2016 (though there seems to be some
controversy about who is on this commission). Now, if Colorado tries to
introduce Direwolves from Game of Thrones, I think that would pass.
Josh: Yes, I do not think it will be
that close.
Deb: No.
Jon: Yes? I have never even heard
of this.
Barry: If this were a
non-Presidential year and voting levels were going to be lower, I would say
no. However, this issue has turned into a rural vs. urban battle for the
most part. So this is a yes, Proposition 114 will pass.
Rich:
Yes. People love wolves! Especially people that don’t have to deal with them.
In an election that will have a high liberal/urban turnout I think this one
will pass.
Sean: This one was completely off of
my radar. I will have to look into it and read what others have to say.
(My note: I love that this question was a
complete curveball.)
8. Will South Dakota approve Constitutional Amendment B
to legalize sports betting in Deadwood and require that net local revenue from
such activity be dedicated to the Historic Restoration and Preservation of
Deadwood?
Me: Yes. Sports betting is about to
become national. Plus, this question was just an excuse to include a picture
from the TV show Deadwood.
Josh: Yes. This is an odd one that
the support and opposition are both Republicans. Granted, probably not too many
Democrats in South Dakota (or people for that matter). I think it passes
because these types of votes seem to generally go in that direction.
Deb: Yes
Jon: No.
Barry: Sure. Everybody’s doing
it, so why not South Dakota? Sports betting is going to be everywhere
soon enough.
Rich:
Yes. Legalized gambling is moving across the country and voters see it as a
decent way to raise money.
Sean: Same as #7. I’m generally
interested in initiatives and gaming policy, but have not been following these
issues recently. So many state and local elections in Florida and especially
the Miami-Dade and Broward Counties areas have keep me occupied. I’ve been
commenting in media on, and moderating forums and panels, and informally
advising on some of the local campaigns.
9. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Dallas Cowboys by
more than 10 points on Sunday, 11/8?
Me:
Dallas is bad, but I feel like it will be a bit of a letdown game for the
Steelers after defeating the Titans and Ravens. Steelers win by 7-9 points, and some
Steelers fans will go insane and demand that Tomlin or a coordinator gets fired
even though the team will be 8-0.
Josh:
Absolutely, especially if Ben
DiNucci is the QB
Deb:
SPORTSBALL
Jon: Absolutely.
Barry: Hell yeah. I think it’s
likely that the margin is even greater…Let’s go with a 31-13 final score.
Rich:
Yes, the Cowboys are very, very bad and as of now they’re getting outscored by
quite a bit.
Sean:
Yes. 31-17 Steelers.
Barry added this bonus prediction: Trump News will be announced by the
President via a tweet at the same time he concedes, offering that any cable or
streaming platform that doesn’t immediately add the new network is clearly
supporting the fake news that illegally brought Trump into his new career.
The network will seek to further bring into the mainstream the far right
racist, fascist, and anti-establishment agenda, and will push Ivanka Trump for
president in 2024.
Now, I guess we'll see who is correct in their predictions. I think the main winner on Tuesday night and beyond will be television networks thanks to high ratings and any company that makes alcoholic products!
Thanks to everyone who participated in this post. Please feel free to share your own predictions in the comments section below. I also want to share this live webinar today (Monday, November 2nd) at noon Eastern time that features Dr. Sean Foreman. Please check it out!
McConnell photo by Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS