Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Donald Trump Is Going To Be President

What a scary headline. The American political system has become extremely partisan with little getting done in Washington, so many voters are looking for a political outsider. Donald Trump with his celebrity status and his "I'm saying what I want to say" style is appealing to a lot of people. As I'm writing this on Tuesday evening, The Washington Post declared Trump the Republican winner in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee and Virginia. Sure Ted Cruz took Oklahoma and Texas, and Marco Rubio won Minnesota but the Senators from Texas and Florida, respectively, are well behind Trump in the overall delegate count. Mathematically, it seems unlikely that either candidate has any chance of catching Trump. Seriously, how many states is Trump going to lose? Maybe Rubio can take Florida and perhaps Governor Kasich can win his home state of Ohio, but Trump seems unstoppable in capturing the delegate count to receive the nomination.

I'm sure you're thinking, um Sean, doesn't Hillary Clinton have something to say in the general election? Well yes, but let's look at the map.

I really like this map even if it was used for an ad campaign. Anyway, let's look at the United States map.

Probably 40 states are already decided in November. The Democratic candidate will take California, Vermont, Massachusetts, etc. The Republican candidate will win Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, etc. Really, you're looking at around 10 states (the usual suspects of Florida, Ohio, etc.) to decide the election. I'm obviously not sharing anything new. What will be interesting is how the Republican establishment, which appears to despise Trump, responds. Unless they can create some type of coop and a brokered convention (now that would make some terrific television!), what are they going to do come November? How can they go against the will of the party voters? Plus, think about how many Congressional hearings there have been about Bengazi and Clinton's emails. You think that the Republican establishment is all of a sudden going to support Clinton over Trump? I think not. They also know that another conservative third party candidate would essentially give Clinton the White House. After all the time fighting Obama and Clinton and all of the hours of FOX News coverage against the former Senator and Secretary of State, they are reluctantly going to support Trump as the lesser of two evils in their minds.

So it's really going to come down to voter turnout. And that's where Trump has done extremely well. There was record turnout in Virginia on Tuesday as there was in Iowa and other states during this campaign season. People are voting that never have before. Will Clinton be able to inspire the Democratic base and get enough Independents in Virginia, Florida and North Carolina to win the election? As of today, my guess is no.

I'll close with sharing this amazing John Oliver video since it truly is "must watch." Please note that there is some NSFW language.

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