James Santelli – The biggest Pitt women’s volleyball fan you’ll ever meet! (Blue Sky)
Josh Croyle – Author of Josh’s World and always up for participating in any of my silly or not silly predictions posts. (Blue Sky)
Jim Lokay – Pittsburgh born and bred and FOX 5 DC anchor. (Blue Sky)
Noah Hiles – Pirates beat writer for the Post-Gazette. (Twitter)
Jim Rosati – You know him from NorthShore Nine podcast (Twitter)
Saxboy – Puts together incredible Pirate-related (and other) videos. (Twitter)
1986-1992 Pirates – The best place on the internet to find pictures, videos, and more of the 86-92 Pirates. (Blue Sky)
1. Let's start with the biggest star on the team and one of the biggest in baseball. What do you expect from Paul Skenes this season?
Nubyjas: Paul Skenes is one of those rare athletes that I’d happily pay to watch even if it means filling Bob Nutting’s wallet. 😀 But seriously he’s a special talent who if he stays healthy can be a perennial CY Young candidate. I expect a great season.
James: It appears that anything less than a Cy Young Award and the Pirates' first no-hitter in 28 years (and first solo no-hitter in 49 years) would be a disappointment. Is it fair to actually expect those from Skenes? Why not! I would say the sky's the limit, but his limit may put him out of Earth's orbit.
Ethan: It wouldn’t be fair to expect MORE than what Skenes provided last year. Sure, it’s certainly possible—and maybe even likely—I’m just saying we shouldn’t expect it. With this season being his first full campaign, I can’t imagine the team totally lets the reins off quite yet. Other than that, nothing would really surprise me, but again, just don’t expect it. Young pitching is fleeting.
Josh: Fan expectations are insanely high, everyone seems to think he will go 28-0 with at least ten no-hitters. I do not think he will be quite that good. I am thinking 14-7, 2.97 ERA, finishes top five in Cy Young.
Jim L.: He'll dominate once again -- maybe not ASG starter stuff that early on, but there's no reason to think he'll regress.
Noah: The sky's the limit for Skenes. I think it's reasonable to predict he will be well in the mix for this year's National League Cy Young. I personally think he wins the award after leading baseball in ERA and strikeouts.
Jim R.: I'm not sure it’s fair to expect to see what he did last year, but I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL this season. Let’s go with something like 15-5 with a 2.55 ERA and he finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting.
1992: It’s going to be difficult for Skenes to top such an incredible rookie season. But he’s a student of the game and he’s aiming to do just that. In that vein, Skenes has been tinkering with a couple new pitches this spring in an effort to try and induce contact so he can lower his pitch count and thus go deeper into games. I think this approach and adjustment will cause him to take somewhat of a “step back” because the movement on his pitches is just too good. It’s simply hard for hitters to make contact on him. I think he needs to double down on what he does best, go for the strikeout and make batters try and miss his pitches. He’s also going to be without his personal catcher Yasmani Grandal. In 2024, Skenes for the most part allowed more base runners and ran up high pitch counts in his first few innings of starts, but then locked in and became much more efficient as the game progressed. Grandal had a knack of working with Paul to make adjustments during the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Don’t get me wrong, Skenes is still going to have a very good season. I can envision him with an ERA in the low 3’s, 14 wins, and 250 strikeouts in over 30 starts this season.
2. Who will lead the Pirates in home runs in 2025? (Sean’s Note: My pick of Jack Suwinski in 2024 was so bad that I disqualified myself from participating in this year’s predictions.)
Nubyjas: While he’s not a power hitter I will pick Bryan Reynolds because he at least makes consistent contact. I’d love for O’Neil Cruz or Ke’Bryan Hayes to prove me wrong.
James: I'll call for Bryan Reynolds with the first 30-homer season of his career. Let's get him one before he gets to the sorry end of the age curve.
Ethan: Not much of a choice here—the smart money is either on Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz. I’m going with Cruz, and let’s say somewhere between 25 and 30.
Josh: Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with just 23 HRs.
Jim L.: Bryan Reynolds?
Noah: I will go with Oneil Cruz. If I have to pick a number, I will guess 33.
Jim R.: Gonna have to go with Cruz. Hoping the move to CF can allow him to just go out there and play ball.
1992: Obvious answer is Oneil Cruz. He has the most raw power on the club. But I do not believe he is going to go up there swinging for the fences every time like he did the first season-and-a-half of his career. He’s going to be focused more on putting the ball in play, and getting productive outs. He’ll have a higher batting average but that’s going to limit his homers to 28.
3. Will Derek Shelton be fired as the Pirates manager during the season, fired after the season, or be the team's manager in 2026?
Nubyjas: If you would’ve asked me this before the Jared Jones news I would’ve said no because I believe the Pirates pitching would’ve overcame deficiencies in hitting. But. If Jones is out for a significant time period it could get ugly.
James: Unless he can get the Bucs over .500 and in contention when the Steelers are playing games that matter, nope, he's toast. I'll predict he gets the axe in mid-September and Don Kelly takes over.
Ethan: I’m not sure those making the decision are the type that would make such a move during the season, but I don’t think the club is going to be good enough (see below) to be considered to have taken the next step, so let’s say Shelton goes after the season.
Josh: No, I think he is fired before the end of the season.
Noah: I don't think Derek Shelton will be fired this season, but I also don't think he will be the manager next year.
Jim R.: Fired.
1992: I like Derek Shelton the person but don’t believe he is the right manager to lead them to the playoffs. I just believe after 5 years of losing the team needs a different voice. That said, this is an organization that is painfully slow to make changes. Only a complete dumpster fire would cost people jobs (see 2019 season with embarrassing arrests and clubhouse fights). I believe the club will show enough improvement that Derek will keep his job and be back in 2026.
Nubyjas: Sure. Why not?
James: Yes, aboard the Gateway Clipper Fleet. But not on the Princess or the Duchess. Oh, no. It's gotta be the Empress.
Ethan: I really couldn’t care less about social media “stardom”, so I’ll just say I hope those kids are happy. And if I had to bet…I’m going with no.
Josh: Yes
Jim L.: I don't care.
Noah: No idea. Probably not.
Jim R.: No
1992: Yes, my guess is it will happen after the season concludes, around the holidays in 2025 before the new year.
Nubyjas: Ji Hawn Bae if for no other reason than it’s time for him to show and prove or move on.
James: Call me naïve, but I'm still a believer in Henry Davis. There's something in the bat that I can't shake. And when Endy or Bart gets hurt, because a catcher always gets hurt, I think Davis will seize the moment and put some punch into the lineup this summer.
Ethan: This really isn’t my kind of thing, like at all, so I’m not sure my answer matters. I would be willing to bet Oneil Cruz would be the popular pick, so I’ll try and come up with someone different. I’ll say that Kyle Nicolas comes up after some bullpen glut gets sorted through, finds some control, and becomes a big contributor to the bullpen.
Josh: Bubba Chandler...I think he comes up early and has a solid year, perhaps finishing in the top 3 for ROY
Jim L.: I'm pulling for Spencer Horowitz.
Noah: I will go with Kyle Nicolas. I expect him to have a really good year out of the bullpen.
Jim R.: I hope there’s a few, but let’s go with Nick Yorke.
1992: Someone from the bullpen. Let’s go with Kyle Nicolas. People have been raving about his stuff for a long time, and he is good friends with Skenes and Jones. I think their mentality and preparation will rub off on him, and I could see Kyle emerging to be a solid 8th inning guy on a team that desperately needs a lockdown bullpen after last year’s disasters.
6. Will any of the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves NOT make the playoffs?
Nubyjas: Too much would have to go wrong for the Dodgers to miss the playoffs. Hell, they were without Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts yet had no problem smoking the Cubs in Japan. If anything the NL East gauntlet could eliminate either the Braves or Mets because the Phils are a good team and the Marlins can catch you slipping.
James: Hmm let's go with the Mets missing out. If one of Lindor or Soto gets hurt or has a protracted slump, things could really get interesting -- especially since the Braves are a more complete team in that division.
Ethan: Injuries are already creeping up on both the Mets and Braves already, but in the end, I’d say it’s more likely than not all three make it. However, I’d say the Mets have the worst chance.
Josh: Yes, the Braves miss out this year
Jim L.: MLB is broken. They all SHOULD because they spend the money, but somehow, I think the Mets revert to their old ways and vastly underperform this year and miss the postseason.
Noah: The Mets will miss the playoffs. Not enough pitching.
1992: The NL East is loaded. The NL West is loaded. Outside the division winners, your wild cards will come from those 2 divisions. I could see the Mets missing the playoffs, and the other wild card going to Arizona who just missed out last year.
7. What's your overall prediction for the Pirates? (Record, finish in the NL Central, etc.)
Nubyjas: My prediction is pain. It’s hard to see this team finishing higher than third in the Central which is a shame considering how weak the division seems to be this season. Pirates will finish sub .500 again.
James: 77-84 (Some game against the Nationals or the Reds late in the season gets rained out with no re-scheduling), which still winds up being good enough for 3rd place in the NL Central. Maybe I'm just pessimistic because I'm making predictions right after word that Jared Jones is having elbow trouble -- but that news only illustrates how many things must go right, and how little can go wrong, for the 2025 Pirates to be a playoff contender. I'll note that I was two wins on the optimistic side last year with a 78-84 prediction.