2025 Washington Nationals Predictions

I started this blog in January 2005, and the Washington Nationals moved from Montreal and played their first home games at RFK Stadium nearly three months later. While I will always consider myself to be a Pittsburgh sports fan, I have attended dozens of Nats games over the last 20 years including the Max Scherzer near perfect game / no-hitter and Stephen Strasburg's debut. I think I have some Nats credentials here. Therefore, in addition, to my annual Pirates predictions blog post, I decided to create a Nationals predictions blog post this year. I reached out to a variety of people, and I think you'll enjoy their thoughts. Here's the starting lineup.

Well, different starting lineup.

Ryan Clary: Host of the Locked on Nationals podcast and producer of Grant & Danny on 106.7 The Fan. (Twitter)

Frank Hanrahan: WTOP sports reported and fellow Ithaca College graduate (Twitter)

John Domen: Anchor and reporter at WTOP (Twitter)

Richard of The Nats Report: Arguably the best blog covering the Nationals. (Twitter)

Chris Cillizza: Formerly of The Washington Post and CNN, Chris now has his own Substack which I highly recommend. (Twitter)

Marc Goldstein: Northern Virginia native who has his own website and writes for WOUB (Twitter)

Andrew Moses: Host of the podcast Everybody Pulls the Tarp. (Twitter)

Sean: Author of Sean’s Ramblings which you’re reading right now. Still hoping for media credentials to cover a game at Nats Park someday. (Blue Sky)

There are also some special guest participants at the end of this post. 

1. There are high expectations for 2023 #2 overall pick Dylan Crews. What do you expect from him this season?

Ryan: I expect Dylan Crews to be a very impactful defender in right field. He’ll establish himself as one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball, that’s one of my bold takes. I think offensively he will have a middle of the road season, with some highs and lows throughout the season. He’ll have to learn how to hit the off speed/ breaking pitches.

Frank: I would expect Crews to be the every day right fielder for the Nats and be a real threat at the top of the lineup as well as put some pressure on the defense with his base stealing ability.  Team needs a spark plug like him.

John: You always worry about lofty, rookie of the year type expectations.  Just ask Jackson Holliday last year.  But the experience Crews got last year will definitely serve him well.  If he wins Rookie of the Year, then great, though that award isn’t often indicative of stardom.  At 23 you just hope for a solid year.  If he’s simply “good” this year – say .270 and 15-20 homers – then you have to feel great.  But with young guys who have amazing tools, I hesitate to get too specific because you never know when it’ll actually click.  The Nats will feel great if that’s this year, but if you have to wait a year to see him explode, that’s fine too. 

Richard: It will be interesting to see Crews at the Major League level all season. I am expecting big things from him and a breakout year and will live up to all the hype that has been placed on the rookie. However, he will fall short in ROY voting, but it will be fun to watch for Nationals fans.

Chris:.265, 15 HR, 70 RBI if he plays the full year. Which is great!

Marc: I really think that Crews is going to win Rookie of the Year in the NL. Yes, Roki Sasaki brings high pedigree, but Crews already has MLB experience. Additionally, I think Crews has played really well during Spring Training and done a great job of hitting the play to RF with authority. I can clearly see him going 20/20 this year.

Andrew: Big things - 30+ homers, 90+ RBIs. Breakout year.

Sean: Solid season and finishes with 15+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. (Not quite a 20/20 season.) Finishes top 3 in the NL rookie of the year voting.

2. Who will lead the Nationals in home runs in 2025?

Ryan: James Wood will lead the team with 30 homeruns in 2025.

Frank: I think James Wood is going to have a breakout season and lead the team in homers.

John: Does CJ Abrams take another leap this year and club the crap out of the ball?  On a team lacking a consistently menacing threat – unless Crews takes that big leap this season – it is probably Abrams. 

Richard: I predict James Wood will lead the Nationals in home runs this season.

Chris: Wood. (I hope).

Marc: I think that James Wood will lead the team in homers. He nearly led the team in homers last year despite only being called up in July, so he is the obvious pick. I could also see someone like Josh Bell or Nate Lowe leading in HRs though.

Andrew: Crews

Sean: James Wood with at least 25.

3. Will the Nationals be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Ryan: I think we will be on the fence. I don’t see us selling anyone big outside of Kyle Finnegan, but I also don’t see us moving off of any prospects. I think we stay put for the most part.

Frank: Nationals will be cheap as they usually are and be sellers at the trade deadline.

John: This is a team that has to be sellers again.  They have a few talented pieces for a future playoff run, but not nearly enough just yet.  That said, how many guys look like someone who will fetch you a big return?  Though with what relief pitching commands near the trade deadline, get a dominant arm or two in the pen and you might get a couple dudes who can be pieces in 2027 or so. 

Richard: Sellers

Chris: Still sellers. One more year!

Marc: I don't think that Nats will be buyers or sellers actually. I think they will stand pat or flip some of their veteran players on expiring contracts, if anything. Players like Jorge Lopez, Kyle Finnegan, Amed Rosario and Mike Soroka are all trade candidates if the team decides to sell. That being said, I doubt Rizzo will want to sell based on the last few deadlines.

Andrew: Sellers

Sean: Sellers. Josh Bell will continue of streak of getting traded for the 17th straight season.

4. Will CJ Abrams go to a casino this season? (Sean’s note: CJ Abrams was essentially suspended near the end of the 2024 season for apparently spending all night at a casino. It was a big deal. With that written, I probably should have asked this question differently. At least one person didn’t participate in this prediction post because of this question.)

Ryan: No, CJ and the team has out that in the rear view mirror and we are all good on that front. 

Frank: CJ Abrams better be attending gamblers anonymous meetings and not even thinking about heading back to a casino.

John: Bet you no one cares as long as he’s hitting…

Richard: I just wanted to let you know that I won't be able to answer this question.  

Chris:  GOD I HOPE NOT 

Marc: CJ is going to silence a lot of doubters this season. I have been really pleased with his answers to everything from the press so far have demonstrated he is past the issue. Whether he actually goes to a casino, I am not sure. Maybe he does, but it likely will not be as late with a game the next afternoon or in the public eye.

Andrew: No

Sean: I feel like CJ and the Nationals probably have some type of agreement stating that he can’t go to a casino.

5. Who will be the team's surprise/breakout player this year?

Ryan: I think your surprise breakout will be Jose Ferrer, I think he will be the best bullpen piece that we have and he could look to make his first All-Star game. He’s got all the goods to be an elite arm for the next decade plus.

Frank: Opening day starter McKenzie Gore showed flashes last season as being a pretty solid major league starter but I expect Gore to take a bigger step with a bigger role and dare I say a near 20 game winner.

John: I’m going to say James Wood, not necessarily a huge surprise, but I think he blows up this year.  That’s also partly because a buddy of mine coached him in high school, but he put up good numbers at a young age and as he gets older, you figure he’s only going to get better.  Him and Crews together in the outfield can be really special.  Maybe not this season, but pretty soon. 

Richard: Honestly, this player isn't in the lineup just yet.  

Chris: Wood. I am also a Jacob Young guy.

Marc: A surprise/breakout player, for me, is two fold. Offensively, I think that Jacob Young is going to the next steps to be a contributor outside of his blazing speed and defense. He put on some muscle this offseason and has done well in ST. On the mound, I think that three pitchers will break out. The first is Jake Irvin, who already broke out to a certain extent in the first half last season, but really fell off in the second half. If he limits the home runs, he can be one of the best pitchers in the starting rotation. Another one I think will break out is Mitchell Parker. I really like his stuff from the left side and he has a year of big league experience under his belt already. The third one is Jose A. Ferrer. He is a lefty that throws a 100 mph sinker. How much more needs to be said? I think that Ferrer can become the closer by the end of the season if the Nats trade Finnegan. If nothing else, he will be a strong relief option for the back end of the bullpen.

Andrew: Not sure he's a surprise but Crews will breakout bigtime this year.

Sean: Pitcher Brad Lord. The Nationals bullpen has been an adventure for years. Maybe the rookie can bring some stability. More importantly, lots of potential nicknames. Lord of the Bullpen. Sith Lord. Lunch Lord (for any Girls5eva fans).

6. Which Nats Summer Concert are you looking forward to the most: O.A.R., Natasha Bedingfield, Nelly, Sam Hunt, Ja Rule/Ashanti, or Riley Green (who is apparently not the Detroit Tigers' outfielder)?

Ryan: Gotta be Nelly! Nelly has some big hits so I’m excited for him.

Frank: Sam Hunt is a concert I would stay after to watch. I am a deep undercover country fan and Hunt has some bangers!

John: My heart says OAR, but you gotta have a little nostalgia for Nelly too.  What’s happening now?!

Richard: O.A.R.  Shattered. Duh!! 

Chris: Uh, this is not exactly a murderer’s row of music. Ja Rule probably.

Marc: For the concerts, I am excited for Sam Hunt and Nelly. I am a country music fan so those names are the ones I am most interested in.

Andrew: OAR

Sean: I asked this question to my oldest son who replied Nelly. If we go, I hope he plays Hot In Herre.

7. Finally, what's your overall prediction for the Nationals? (ex. record, finish in the NL East)

Ryan: I think the Nats finish 78-84. The NL East will be too tough for them to break .500 but they will be a sneaky decent team and will be a hard out. Young, fun, scrappy team. 

Frank: In 2025, the Nationals will win 70 games as the cheap rebuild continues and they will finish fourth in the NL East. I need a reason to watch this team and hopefully Crews, Wood or Abrams will play well enough to make the Nats summer time appointment viewing.

John: Thanks to the eternal ineptitude, or apathy, of the Miami Marlins, the Nationals figure to be solidly in fourth place in the division.  If Crews has a monster year this season, maybe they threaten for third, but I think there’s a wide disparity between them and the contenders that have much higher expectations in the division.  This Nats team could be a bit scrappy sometimes, a definite pain in the butt for opposing pitchers if you have to play them enough, but it’s hard to win 8-7 every game.  And with a pitching staff that still seems anonymous and lacking for the most part, it’s hard to envision them being better than a mediocre team this year.  But I also say that as an Orioles fan who knows teams can come out of nowhere faster than you think.  So if I’m wrong, well, I won’t be surprised.  But from out here my expectations aren’t very high. 

Richard: I predict the Nationals finish a couple of games over .500 and will be third in the division.  

Chris: 3rd in NL behind Mets and Braves, 81-81.

Marc: Predictions: I think the Nats finish somewhere between the range of 75-85 wins. In my most optimistic opinion, I think the young core can lead the team to a Wild Card berth, much like the O's in 2023. Conversely, this core has yet to play a full season together and relying on a team that has an average age in the late 20s is a risk. The lack of veteran leaders like Jayson Werth/Scherzer can easily hurt this team in a maturity standpoint. It is easy for me to look at the NL East and say they will finish in 4th, but I genuinely think one of ATL/NYM/PHI will falter and, if the Nats play well, they can finish in 3rd. Every season, a team overperforms and a team underperforms. Who says that team to overperform can't be the Nats?

Andrew: Finish 4th in the NL East

Sean: 75 wins. Slight improvement from last season, but they can’t compete with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies.

BONUS PREDICTIONS:

You may know Mike Ploger as the in-game host for Nationals and Capitals games (as well as being a realtor). While he was unable to provide predictions based on his role in the organization, he shared that the Nationals will go 162-0 and a World Series (with a winking smiley face emoji). (Sean's note: Since the Nationals lost on Thursday, I will amend Mike's prediction to the team going 161-1 and a World Series!)  (Instagram)

Caroline, the lead vocalist and guitarist, for the DC-area band Cinema Hearts also shared this:

I'm just proud to say I was a Nats fan since they started in 2005. My only prediction is I hope everyone has a great summer watching baseball and that I will one day sing in the stadium!

Thanks to everyone for participating. Please feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments below.

Photo Credits:

Dylan Crews by Geoff Burke-USA Today

CJ Abrams by G Fiume-Getty

Nelly by John Amis-AP

Cinema Hearts from their Instagram page by Natania Krebs.